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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Frustrating that they have't updated yet to include August in the composites. https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, I think its silly to go by 1961-1990 baseline....no one would ever be below average. I won't be shocked if Canada is below by 1991-2020 climo.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I see the parallel, but I don't expect as hostile a polar domain this cold season for a variety of different reasons.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    TBH, it would make sense to me if there were multiple factors at play inhibiting this season because its been a complete no-show, especially relative to expectation.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I am not debating that CC may be at play as well given the ITCZ shift, but it would be folly to dismiss the solar relationship. Its very strong and clear as day.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    CC.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I really don't think it matters. There is plenty of time for recovery prior to winter...look at 2006....huge NAO block that fall.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Why is an AO drop in September a good sign for the winter?
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    The MEI is probably going to register too low to be a viable proxy for intensity of thus La Niña event... just as it did with respect to El Niño, last year. RONI is probably the way to go....moderate.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have never expected an east-based event....however, the weaker the ENSO, the less important EMI is....2000 and 2008 were both pretty far west. Obviously 2000 is way off with the extra tropical Pacific, but 2008 may not be an awful analog.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Ever since snowman concluded that cool neutral could result in an even warmer winter for the east he has been pushing that narrative lol
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, agreed on seasonal models...just interesting when they align with early thoughts.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the best bet for a big NE hit is one developing around the Bahamas, anyway....CV systems are such a crapshoot.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Raindance, your blend looks an awful lot like the CFS.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think anyone feels like you expect a repeat of 2013-2014, but given the the last several years, I think the prospect of a compromise between that year and 2021-2022 is alluring to many on the east coast. Even January 2022 had a very nice stetch.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    We have seen some solid PNA stretches....the PNA and PDO do part ways. The more important question is whether or not they are fraudulent, west-baised PNA...like January 2023, or accopanied by a +8SD NAO as they so often have been past 10-15 years.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Aside from the ocassional mismatches that afforded us some wintry reprieves, no....
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have had several nights in the 40s already.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am optimistic for December.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is part of what makes it fun to me.....how invested I am in winter is a byproduct of my need to get the snowstorm dopamine drip going coulpled with with the challange that LF presents. Its the snow addiciuton that fuels that drive needed to do the forecasting.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    RONI is going to be reflective of a solid la Nina, which is supported by the pattern, as Chuck and Bluewave have been illustrating. I couldn't care less what the ONI does.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, yea....but they are the Acuna (when healthy) and Judge of long range forecasting. Snowman has some biases, as we all do, but he clearly knows his shit and adds a lot of value to the dicussion IMO.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think 2014 is @snowman19's top analog.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I try to be conservative on this self-grading practice because I know how cheesy that is.
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