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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yup....do we kick the can with respect to the MJO signal in December, like last year, or does it come to fruition... Def. interested in hearing your thoughts on my outlook this year, whenever you get aorund to it.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    He is like @MJO812 10 years ago.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am more on the -WPO train, but if we get both...yea, that is the upside. I went +EPO..... Both is 2013-2014.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I won't be suprised if the region is above normal in snowfall....but I need to be conservative after the past couple of busts.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I have gotten myself into trouble forecasting upside chases too much lately, so I couldn't do it again....but I see a path.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    There are def. signs of a better north Pacific...I would bet my life that is what is driving some of these doomsday deviations.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Starting to see some subtle signs of a potential light at the end of this proverbial Pacific-carnage tunnel, too.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I really don't think this winter is going to be a complete no-show again. Pretty confident in modestly better Pacific relative to last year providing some decent chances.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    What are your thoughts...similar, warmer, better?
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I ended up going +3 to +5 in Dec for the mid Atl and NE...hopefully I don't end up too cool....the potential translation of the MJO into phase 6 beyond mid month and towards the holiday is what kept me from really going bonkers.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Generally agree, but think more WPO.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
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  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think around 12/16 could begin a window, but just leery of can-kicking.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Regardless of what La Niña does, I agree on that this year.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/11/using-past-forecasting-difficulty-to.html
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, all I care about is the peak ONI value, anyway.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, its very precarious...I agree. Toughest ENSO call in the 11 years I have been at this.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    The issue I see is the trades are west, while the subsurface is east.....gonna need them to overlap a bit on the western periphery of 3.4.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Subsurface is neutral over the western half, which means it won't go Modoki....-1 to -2C over the eastern half.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Careful with the PDO....it's as much of a reflection of the past regime as it is a predictor of the future....ie the momentum is just as important. If begins climbing rather abruptly....
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Eh...I wouldn't say that yet. 2008 is a great ENSO analog and it racked up ONI by hanging out near peak for a relatively long duration, rather than reaching a low weekly. It was -0.1 at this point on the weekly and peaked at 0.8 ONI.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    It could be an overlap...I know we like to distinguish using human constructs of arbitraty 30 days periods, but every now and then mother nature likes to moon us for doing so.
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