40/70 Benchmark

Yea, I get it.

Try it now...

Sign...me...up. I will take that over the 14- 5" ers that get me above normal....I mean, you can milk your prostate to the mathamatics of climo....I'm good.

Looks like my forecast got deleted, so here is just the link since mods must be anal. Sorry, billion things at once. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/09/intensifying-hurricane-helenes.html

Intensifying Hurricane Helene's Devastation of Florida Coast Imminent Intensification through Landfall Around Midnight Likely The situation: Hurricane Helene is centered near latitude 25.5 N and longitude 85.5 W, which is about 290 miles south of Apalachicola, FL. Maximum sustained winds are currently about 105 mph sustained with a minimum central pressure of 960mb as of 11am EDT. *Preparation to protect life and property from around Tampa Bay up the coast to Apalachee Bay should be complete and if they are not, focus on the life portion of this message and disregard property. Surge will begin inundating areas on the coast this evening well in advance of landfall.* Track Forecast: The forecast track philosophy from First Call on Tuesday is unchanged and of high confidence. The system will continue in a general north northeast heading until landfall on the northeastern Gulf coast of Florida later this evening. It is very possible that there may be some subtle nuances to the track that will have large ramifications on lives in individual locales, but this is why everyone was instructed to prepare as if they are a certainty to be ground zero, so to speak. The belief that guidance is currently erroneously too far to the west is one prominent example of this. However, this will not be able to be definitively known for several hours, which will be too late for any adjustments from those impacted. The reason for this anticipated late correction from guidance is from experience with respect to model errors during the interaction of powerful hurricanes with mid latitude troughs, which is being validated to some degree by short term trends. As precarious as the track nuances are at this point, the forecast for the precise landfall intensity is several magnitudes more tedious due to this intricate interaction with two Goliaths of the atmosphere in Helene and the approaching trough. Intensity Forecast: Thus far the track and intensity forecast from First Call on Tuesday has been very accurate in that it brushed the eastern tip of the Yucatan and has continued to at a deliberate pace of intensification since. While it has become much better organized in general, the system still has some structural inconsistencies present. Although it has developed an organized central dense overcast, it remains in the process of closing off the eye wall, which is a red flag for truly exotic levels of intensification over the next several hours. However, the system is organized enough to continue to avail of absolute rocket fuel from the perspective of oceanic heat potential as it is currently traversing the loop current. The balance of the forecast between now and landfall is convoluted and heavily reliant the precise manner of interaction with the incoming trough. Conditions are not ideal, so any category 5 delusions from some of the twitter juggernauts should have been adequately medicated by this point. The system will soon be departing the loop current, which is not a substantial limiting factor given that the sea should remain adequately warm of sufficient depth. However, there will be increasing wind shear over the northeast Gulf of Mexico due to the influence of said trough. As the graphic above elucidates, the environment will not be as hostile as the shear graphic implies due to the fact that said shear will be parallel to the north northeast movement of the storm. It will also be aiding in the evacuation of outflow aloft by way of fairly strong diffluence, which act to negate the negative influence of the shear as well. This is the assortment of dynamics that are referred to by "precise interaction with the trough" and these factors acting to negate the influence of the shear are illustrated quite will in the shear trend graphic below. Notice how a decrease in shear is denoted by guidance along the modeled path of the storm by the dashed lines. This is a reflection of the aforementioned processes at play. One additional factor at play aiding in the sustainment of an environment sufficient to maintain a major hurricane all the way to the coast is an adequate mid level moisture supply, as dry air is slow to be entrained into the circulation during trough interaction. In summary, the interaction between Helene and the upper level trough is such that the impact of significant shear prior to landfall will be largely negated by the fact that is is parallel to the storm's moment, in addition to ventilation aloft via divergent flow accentuating outflow to the NNE. The system's sheer size and fast rate of movement will also act to limit the impact of said deleterious atmospheric influences as well, since smaller systems are more prone to atmospheric imperfections and the fast rate of movement limited exposure prior to landfall. However, the residual structural inconsistencies coupled with the cyclone's rather large size and the fact that shear does in fact exist will result in an imperfect environment that will only allow for slow to perhaps more moderately paced intensification once mid latitude upper support commences for the next 12 hours of so prior to landfall. Thus the intensity forecast is increased slightly from First Call to reflect the absence of a significant weakening trend prior to landfall. Final Call: FIRST CALL: ISSUED 2:45PM EDT TUESDAY 9/24:

Not sure..I wouldn't want to be near enough to the beach to find out.

Well, there is plenty to go around....a lot of weather aificionados are full of shit, apparently.

Even surge will be considerably less west of the track, though. I should be done w my write up soon...work happened this AM.

I get his point, though...everyone should have prepared for 15'+ of surge.

Stay there.

To a point...but I would argue that its pretty crucial given how lopsided the system will be in its impact. It will somewhat analagous to northeast storms in that respect.

Yes, that is some thing I have been noting...maybe not in terms of maxamizing surge, but otherwise the system will probably be more impactful than had it pulled a Katrina out over the loop current. Sure, there would be an internet-ogling-orgy from all of us weather dorks, but this is the more precarious scenario in terms of maxamizing the wind threat IMO.

Right......the implication is that we aren't behind schedule much.....if it reamined stagnant today, then its time to adjust. The envt. never looked optimal yeseterday and last night.

Its going to need to ramp up pretty quickly from here on out or the worse case scenario with respect to surge may not play out, regardless.....even a last moment intensificaiton may not have time to gather as much surge, though the shelf is pretty shallow in the big bend region...

Inclusivity reigns supreme.

What do they have to gain by removing that at this point?? Zilch....an immense amount to lose. I'm waiting to hear @Randomgirl's thoughts...

Slow and steady until dawn...then boom.

I don't think the timing of the cycle of internal processes bodes well for FL....they need to pray this never quite gets its act together. I said when it interacted with Yucatan that any chance of a prelandfall EWRC was out the window.

I expected any RI to hold off until early Thursday and that looks well played attm. Still feel reasonably good about the 125mph forecast peak, but will need to evaluate tomorrow if that is too conservative.

I was thinking about that one as a comp...I'll have my Final Call out around midday tomorrow. Enioy tracking guys.

Especially tomorrow as that incoming trough enhances diffluence.

It will take longer to tighen up, but another ramification of a core that large is that we may not even see an EWRC prior to landflall.

Yes...probably when the NAO goes negative.

Yea, maybe that in conjunction with the size...both are factors in determining the wind-pressure relationship.

Yea, this is what I have been stressing.....systems like Charlie will pale in comparison to this even it hits as like a 2.