40/70 Benchmark

The 900mb crap is obviously overdone.

That's identical to my First Call last night...hope its off. Yikes.

Good bet Milton remains somewhat smaller than Helene, however, guidance does indicate at least one EWRC so this isn't going to be Charley, either.

Analog for this winter @raindancewx?

Yes. This shouldn't be a repeat of Helene in that regard...though it won't matter for surge, as others have pointed out.

I had my probability map extend much further to the south of TB than north.

I wouldn't take them verbatim, but rather interpret the output as sensing a very favorable environment over the central GOM...in an absolute sense, just as the globals are often not intense enough due to resolution issues, the hurricane models are often exagerrated presumably because the intense convective processes are overemphasized.

This also aligns with my work on the polar domain from a couple of months ago. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/08/preliminary-analysis-of-polar-domain.html Eastern Mass Weather Preliminary Polar Analogs for Winter 2024-2025 1970 1975 1999 2007 2016 2022

Okay, but consider my point about seasonal guidance erroneously defaulting to stock ENSO....shouldn't be an issue this year.

Is this awful??

raindance didn't, either. I don't think last year is a good example because the seasonals fell prey to overreliance on ENSO....they modeled an El Niño like pattern that never materialized. In this case, they are modeling a La Niña like pattern that while not epic, would appear to offer wintry interludes that extend a bit further to the south than those of the past few years. I wouldn't call those EURO images a massive bust for 2021-2022 and the only reason 2022-2023 didn't work out was due to the extent of the western trough....no seasonal will ever get that right.

Tougher to get a dry season at the height of +AMO nearly a quarter century further into CC. Anyway, I love the idea of incorporating what is happening, but IMO his bias is showing with the apparent vitriol in dismissing all seasonal guidance.

Reminds me of 2020-2021 and 2021-2022.....should see amplified phases 4-6 this month to lend confidence.

Intensifying Tropical Storm Milton Poses Grave Threat to Tampa-St Petersburg Mid-Week Likely to Reach Hurricane Status by Monday The Current Situation: While the state of Florida and much of the southeastern US continues reeling from the impact of Hurricane Helene during the latter portion of September, the merciless tropics are preparing for another debilitating blow. As of 5pm EDT, Tropical Storm Milton was located near latitude 22.7 N and longitude and 95.5 W. It was drifting NNE at 3 mph with maximum sustained winds at 40mph and minimum central pressure of 1006mb. Track Forecast for Milton: Milton will continue drifting tonight before beginning a more concerted motion to the ENE during the day on Sunday, as the ridge over the northwest Caribbean Sea begins to move away to the east and the steering flow intensifies from the WSW around its northwestern periphery. This general motion will continue with an acceleration on Tuesday, at which point the system will begin to drive through a weakness in the subtropical ridge in association with the amplifying trough responsible for the fall preview over the northeast during the the coming week. This scenario would place the central west coast of the FL peninsula at greatest risk of landfall mid week, with the Tamp Bay Area particularly vulnerable. However, while this general scenario is of relatively high confidence, there remain finer scale details that could have large consequences for specific areas that could change at this lead time. Intensity Forecast for Milton Evokes Deja-Vu from Hurricane Helene Atmospheric conditions are very favorable for intensification, however, it is likely to be a relatively slow, albeit steady process for approximately the next 36-48 hours. This is due to the fact that the Milton is still in its incipient stages of development and the nascent central dense overcast (CDO) is not yet fully developed. Beyond the this window, the system will begin to encounter a window of essentially pristine atmospheric conditions overnight Monday into the daylight hours on Tuesday as it traverses the loop current, at which point maximum intensity (approximately 130mph sustained winds) will be achieved and internal processes will begin to modulate intensity until approximately the early morning hours of Wednesday. Milton's Odds of Becoming a Major Hurricane by Tuesday are 4.4x Climo Note that Milton will be traversing the area of exceptionally deep and warm waters of the loop current while encountering its most favorable upper level dynamics, which includes a very moist environment and poleward augmented outflow by strong wind shear to the north. This is eerily similar to the confluence of environmental factors at this precise location that triggered the more accelerated rate of intensification of Hurricane Helene late last month. However, there are two key differences that are likely to result in a weaker landfall intensity of Milton relative to Helene. First of all, whereas Helene's direction of movement continued essentially parallel with the shear vector all the way to the coast, Milton will be moving ENE as it encounters southwesterly shear beginning during the predawn hours on Wednesday. This should induce a more steady and accelerated rate of weakening. Secondly, Milton's smaller size relative to Helene will render it more susceptible to negative atmospheric influences such as wind shear, thus drier air is also more likely to be entrained into the core as the system is disrupted by the aforementioned shear on final approach to the coast. That being said, this will remain a bonafide hurricane on approach to the coast and a track just to the north of Tampa Bay would devastate an area that is especially vulnerable to storm surge with a strong onshore flow from the west that will be augmented by the storm's movement. Be sure to check back for Final Call on Tuesday, as the intensity forecast is especially likely to change at this lead time. FIRST CALL:

Really hope I am wrong about this one, but my initial hunch offers up a grave scenario for Tampa-St. Pete. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/10/intensifying-tropical-storm-milton.html

I think the CANSIPS is probably too far south with the cold, but the CFS seems more realistic...its similar to the EURO...maybe a touch colder.

That is good consensus on a pretty stout -WPO pattern in the seasonal mean.

CFS

I think something like 2021-2022 maybe okay...but we aren't getting the amplification out west that we did in 2022.

New Euro is a nod to the CFS/CANSIPS camp.....any other portrayal is due to a bias and/or delusion.

Okay...time to get to work. Wow.

I don't think it matters.

Yes. Absolutely this.

Last season was very similar to 1972-1973 with the strong el Nini in the midst of a cold phase of the Pacific. Agreed. Still warm, but better than last year.