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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. I love the buns from people for not working myself into a lather over some light snow on the cape that needs an inexorable trend for the final 72 hours to be anything more. Let me remind myself to massage my prostate to that before bed.
  2. Yea, we are essentially saying the same thing, but Chris and I just have slightly different perspectives....no biggie. Not arguing his basic point.
  3. All of them are KUs.....the acronyms are subsets that are parsed by severity.
  4. Here are my thoughts from last month....hopefully my timing isn't off, but confident the general idea for the season is right. Mismatch period def. got started earlier than I though in December... January 2025 Outlook January Analogs: 2022x2, 2023, 2014, 2000,1974 The "mismatch" month should be the one true winter month this season. Ironically enough, it will be accompanied by an intensifying polar vortex, as the -WPO/+PNA should allow the cold to compete with the warmth in both duration and magnitude. The cold should not be as anomalous overall as some of the other mismatch periods, as New England will finish anywhere from near normal to 2F above average and the mid Atlantic from 1 to 3F above average. The region should be on the look out for a powerful Miller B KU type of event between January 21 and February 4, before the MJO makes another run for the MC near or shortly after the close of the month. Precipitation should near to perhaps slightly below average across the region, while snowfall is near to above normal. January MC Deviation Primarily Driven by -WPO
  5. Like I said, its both....unless its a flawless pattern that matches a poster on Paul Kocin's bedroom wall, one can always point out a reason(s) why a storm did not materialize. While the Pacific jet is undoubtedly a reason why this weekend won't work out, its wasn't completely prohibitive, either....that is the luck that I referred to. I didn't mean to imply that it was a textbook set up and it took awful luck to miss out on a blizzard.
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