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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Was there any resistance to the notion of a -PDO this winter? I'm not trying to be an ass....I'm honestly am not sure what can be gleaned from this because everyone was already resigned to it.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    27.9 was the low 30.6 now
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I hit 32.5 Tues AM
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    38.1 Only hit 36.0 this AM
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Will take the 70s and sun on Sunday..bouncey castle for my daughter's 5th.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would love to do that if I were closer.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    My DM H5 and temp composites are done...now comes the time consuming task of writing it up and figuring out the seasonal progression. Should be out second week of Novie, as usual.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I remember there was some thought that last year was the solar max and it just kept rising, so we'll have to see. Given that the ascending phase if most favorable for high latitude blocking, we are probably a little less prone than 2022 was to amplified abouts of -AO/NAO.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yay, a winter of solar orgies!
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I know folks like to shit on the climate guidance, but I think they are going to have a better idea than they did last season, since ENSO is congruent with the predominate hemispheric background state of the past several years.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    On paper, I would agree....but careful of an instance like Dec 22, whereas you get one huge -AO month that skews the mean. That season is a very good analog and is also an illustration of why blocking is not impossible in a high solar/+QBO-La Nina.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    This isn't very scientific, but we are "due" for some of those little nuances to go our way. Obviously seasonal forecasing is a next to impossible endeavor due to most of our skill being relegeated to the medium range, as you point out, so at the end of the day it often comes down to anecdotal, educated hunches.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    We have had a good deal of -AO these past several years...I think I could buy that argument more with respect to the NAO.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, its def. tougher to say with the gap in data.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    The ONI is def. going to be towards the less snowy group...with the exception of 2017 and 2021. I continue to think a season like 2021-2022 is doable, whereas we got the one very good stretch.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    MJO seems to end up reasonably amplified this month....
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    No way. My rationale is in here. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/09/consensus-aligning-with-expectations.html?m=1
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think the MEI will be strong....-1.0 to -1.2. -1.2 to -1.4 RONI. -.0.8 to -1 ONI
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Why? Hasn't +NAO been the rule?
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    My use of the word archiac is more of a reflection of how fast the climate has been changging as opposed to how much time has passed since some of these analog years.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it should be clear that when I say that I don't expect a furnace in Canda, its relative to our contemporary climate...not that is going to necessarily be "cold" relative to 1961-1990 standard...that may never be done again.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I don't get why they can't just tweet out the updated value.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I hit 32.5 this AM.
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