40/70 Benchmark

They were pretty bad with Helene...as was all guidnace.

Hogwash IMO. You got heavy snow, it would have stacked.

Hurricane Milton Verification: Devil is in the Details of a Flawed Forecast Style of Communication is Every Bit as Crucial as the Forecast Forecast versus Reality The Eastern Mass Weather Final Call for Hurricane Milton was not egregiously poor from a technical standpoint, as the predicated landfall locale of Madeira Beach was a mere 59 miles from Milton's Siesta Key rendezvous with the state of Florida. The storm did indeed reach that secondary peak of 165mph as forecast, but it was at 5pm Tuesday instead of 11pm. The storm also made landfall 7.5 hours sooner and slightly weaker than forecast, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph and a minimum central pressure of 954 mb at 830pm on Wednesday evening. This compared to the forecast of 130 mph with a 946 mb minimum central pressure at 4am Thursday. While notable, these are certainly within a reasonable margin for error considering the challenges that exist with respect to even contemporary tropical forecasting. However, the most glaring error was not with respect to the forecast itself, but rather the manner in which it was conveyed. Social Media has Eroded the Value of Forecasts Social media has granted anyone instant access to everyone, which has clouded intentions and introduced ulterior motives into play due to the need to distinguish oneself from the masses in vying for the attention of the masses. The end result is that the manner and style of communication used to convey crucial information is altered in an effort to be the first to report it and to attract the most attention in doing so. This compromises the product because the primary emphasis is no longer placed solely on communicating an accurate forecast in a responsible manner due to these competing interests. This issue exacerbates the challenge that any passionate forecaster faces in trying to harness said passion for extreme weather in an effort to issue the most objective and this accurate forecast possible. When reframed properly failed forecasts represent an opportunity for crucial reflection. The Eastern Mass Weather forecast for Hurricane Milton highlighted the anticipated impact on a specific locale, and in so doing, used the word "catastrophic" to characterize the degree of surge for the densely populated Tampa Bay area. In hindsight, this should not have headlined the forecast. Instead, there should have been a more nuanced approach utilized in an effort to maintain an adequate balance between conveying the threat level and the need to also communicate the degree of inherent uncertainty. Future efforts need to remain more mindful of this in an effort to distinguish from the mass, rampant sensationalism that is fostered by irresponsible individuals and entities alike on social media. Why the Forecast Failed The reason that 100% of any forecaster's energy needs to be allocated towards the issuance of the best forecast possible is simply because it is such a difficult enough endeavor when there are no ulterior motives at play and the forecast is being communicated in the most measured, responsible manner possible. This is especially true with respect to forecasting tropical systems, as the most subtle of details can have such large implications on an outcome that has such a profound impacts on the lives of so many. This was very evident with Hurricane Milton, as it was explicitly expressed in the Final Call that the precise timing of the right, or easterly turn relative to landfall would be crucial as to whether or not the Tampa Bay areas received the catastrophic surge. Ultimately, the theory that the lopsided circulation would lead to a slightly later recurve was incorrect, which is why the "catastrophic" surge verified as a mere 2.46' at 7:30am EDT this morning. Precisely why this turn to the east was not in fact delayed may her be known for certain. However, the fact that Milton weakened slightly more than anticipated may have played a role since more intense systems, with higher cloud tops are often steered more to the north by incoming troughs. The truth is that the forecast in vacuum was not of poor quality, however, the manner in which is was conveyed was of poor quality and that needs to be better moving forward. More attention needs to be played on communicating uncertainty as opposed to tacitly placing less emphasis on uncertainty in an effort to feed the social media driven ego that has claimed so many high quality forecasters. FINAL GRADE: C-

Here is my reflection on a forecast gone a bit awry.....I feel my degree of error in the forecast was palatable, but I am not happy with how I opted to sensationalize the title...more emphasis should have been placed on the level of uncertainty. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/10/hurricane-milton-verification-devil-is.html Grade: C-

I'd roll the dice with that set up and a slightly less amplifed RNA in the mean....at least where I am.

You keep saying the March pattern was too late and you are patently incorrect. That huge storm was the first week of the month. That pattern's shortcomings had nothing to do with the calendar.

I was 37 last night.

Early November through like Feb 10..yes.

After tomorrow we shed the Morch sun angle, then 3 more weeks until solar min.

I'll do the post mortem tomorrow...I'm pretty disappointed with that forecast.

Agreed.

I'm wating for @bluewaveto snip that author's balls off by illustrating how the NAO has given the SE ridge a lapse dance since 2015.

I'm guessing this article doesn't have a happy ending for NE winer enthusiasts.

Finally updated temp/precip composites yesterday...just in time for me to pivot to winter after Milton. https://psl.noaa.gov/data/usclimdivs/ Outlook season....

Looks to be jogging NNE at the moment.

What was Katrina? Simply for context...not a comparison.

Eye nearing latitude of Everglades City.

I still think I will be okay here on the NH border.

Just going to watch from here on out...I have endured enough weenie shrapnel from insisting this is coming north. It should be pretty apparent now viewing RAD. Hope folks in TB flood zones heeded warnings.

Glad you mentioned that in case anyone interpreted George's ACE update as reason for optimism.

Its tricky because the increasing shear may not allow the EWRC to ever complete if the SW side remains open.

Another point is how much the negative influence of the shear is being negated by the enhanced evacuation of air to the NE....just food for thought. This is why intensity forecasts are so multifaceted and complex.

Its mitigated a great deal by the fact that its moving in generally the same direction....obviously if Milton were moving west, like most tropical systems, then it would be getting absolutely denuded.

Its going to be crucial to see how well the sysem endures the EWRC now that shear has began to impinge on the outflow over the western semicircle...I think this AM is the last real crcuial inflection point for Milton with respect to ultimate landfall locale and intensity....aside from wobbles very late in the game.

Envt. was supposed to get pretty hostile Wed AM IMO. Maybe a break that its picked up right as the EWRC started. I hadn't realized that shear was already impacting it when I commented on the EWRC being bad news a bit earlier.