40/70 Benchmark

He's been calling for a January torch since last fall, so that's probably where it stems from.

I am so sick of long range CJs over the past 8 years...wake me when a major event is imminent

Happened in 2015...def.

Looks like 2010, 1995, 2000 and 1981 are best matches from a qualitative December temp anomaly standpoint.

1995 for me...had about 1'.

While I did go above normal temps and below normal snowfall, I had a whole section of my outlook allocated to the rationale for why the long term Pacific cold phase is coming to an end...given my forecasting bias, I felt compelled to assume it wouldn't have a profound impact immediately...we shall see. Looks as though I nailed the late blooming La Nina that many had given up on.

1/2"

+1/2" 2" on the season.

Right.

I am still pleased with asthetic appeal here for the holiday.

I think its a great analog.

Nope...just lamenting a lost month.

Been a total loss for me.

I did great in January 1996...Feb was meh.

People have a recency bias with respepct to -PNA...while I agree that its not as easy for a - PNA pattern to bare fruit for the east coast as it was 20-30+ year ago, its also not likely to be as anomalous or hostile as it was in 2023.

Pretty sure it isn't goint to torch, but I could see January 1996 turning into January 2022.

More the European suite than the GFS....

Well, I mean...we don't live in Barrow....the best seasons have shitty periods. Feb 1996 low-key sucked.

Just slam that STJ jet into seasonable cold with the arctic tundra dropping west into west-central CONUS.....I'll take that over hoping an H5 low closing over Norfolk can crawl up here before rigormortis sets in, or seeing the main show shield hit Will to Jerry and slide east.

This is why I don't mind seeing the GFS suite back off a bit...I'll take my chances at this latitude in January....even January 2023, with that trough down to baja...I had an active month with near normal snowfall. Last January, despite that absolute bloodbath...managed one of the best events of my life on 1/7. My largest worry at peak climo is precip, not cold. Last thing I want is seeing pictures of Steve's dogs digging tunnels and wolfie and Jerry telling me what a great season I'm having as I stare at cracked earth. Fu9k that-

I don't really care to see a January 1996 pattern, anyway TBH....last thing I want is suppression. I'll take my chances with a "flawed" pattern at my latitude...especially in January.

Great movie, but sorry for your loss.

Lo of 2.1

No methodology is perfect, but it makes even less sense to measure today's weather against yesterday's climate...we'd never see a below average season, as difficult as it is using 30 year climo.

February 2025 Outlook February Analogs: 2011, 2008, 2000, 1999,1972 The polar vortex should begin the month very strong, but watch for a potential SSW from about mid month onward. The pace of moderate storms should increase for the first time all season, just as the warmer weather returns in February, however, a notable difference from many recent months of February is that it should not be prohibitively warm so as to entirely preclude some appreciable snowfall across the majority of the region. The month should finish 1 to 3F above average with near normal to perhaps just below normal snowfall. Northern New England should see above normal snowfall as the cold air source lurks close by in southeastern Canada, which will produce several front-end snowfall for much of southern New England and perhaps even into the northern mid Atlantic at times. "SWFE"....AKA "Southwest Flow Events- March 2025 Outlook March Analogs: 2023x2, 2022, 2021, 2017 2014, 2001,1972 The polar vortex should weaken once again to an extent to close out the season, though confidence is not high in a major episode of blocking. The window for a SSW is through about the 20th of the month, so the impact on winter would largely depend on just how early it can take place. During February or at least the first week of March for maximum impact throughout southern New England. There is another window for a potential KU from approximately March 5 through the 19th, but confidence is low.The cold source should be relatively close by at the very least, not unlike February should major blocking not materialize. Near average to 2F above in the mean with near average precipitation inland and slightly below near the coast.