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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think around 12/16 could begin a window, but just leery of can-kicking.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Regardless of what La Niña does, I agree on that this year.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/11/using-past-forecasting-difficulty-to.html
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, all I care about is the peak ONI value, anyway.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, its very precarious...I agree. Toughest ENSO call in the 11 years I have been at this.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    The issue I see is the trades are west, while the subsurface is east.....gonna need them to overlap a bit on the western periphery of 3.4.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Subsurface is neutral over the western half, which means it won't go Modoki....-1 to -2C over the eastern half.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Careful with the PDO....it's as much of a reflection of the past regime as it is a predictor of the future....ie the momentum is just as important. If begins climbing rather abruptly....
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Eh...I wouldn't say that yet. 2008 is a great ENSO analog and it racked up ONI by hanging out near peak for a relatively long duration, rather than reaching a low weekly. It was -0.1 at this point on the weekly and peaked at 0.8 ONI.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    It could be an overlap...I know we like to distinguish using human constructs of arbitraty 30 days periods, but every now and then mother nature likes to moon us for doing so.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't mean this to be an ass, either...I would get it if there were resistance, but there really isn't. Like last year, I totally got it....but we are all generally on the same page here, so I think honing in on the magnitude, characterization, timing and length of any potential deviations would have more value at this stage.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right on par with 2021.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I really don't see the value in posting volumes of support for a warm winter at this point....I mean, while you're at it, maybe dig up some tweets from scientists arguing that the world is round? I think at this point of the season, there is more value in thinking outside of the box and envisioning what, if anything could go "wrong" from a consensus perspective.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Anyone know what the final SAI/SCE were?
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    50mb, too....odd.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Anyone know why this says eastern phase? Could have sworn QBO is west...
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I remember that heat...I was a junior in HS.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Relative index is still weak...like -.76.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    @bluewaveI have some interesting ideas about your deviation stuff that I am sharing in this year's work. Really facinating relationship to ponder....been wrestling with that today.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Ah...can always count on snowman to give your grape the one last shove needed to consume that last morsel of dirt. I need your number in case I am ever struggling to overcome that last layer of ambivalence on a ledge.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    JB has alterior motives, though...at least at that stage of his career, which is part of the issue. Kind of akin to how young athletes trying to establish their value are most productive relative to after they hit payday.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    We all just need to be jerks sometimes....it goes both ways, too....the cold bias zealots like JB take plenty of shit, too.
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