Just realized I never threaded this in the NE subforum, which I usually do....I prefer to update in here, rather than the main forum.
https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/11/using-past-forecasting-difficulty-to.html
My guess is that is due to the warmer phases outperforing the colder phases as a result of CC, so overall less amplitutude would correlate to cold in the mean. However, I will take high amplitude in the colder phases.
This is what I expect...that mid December, phase 6 period to get pushed back and muted. Phase 6 is actually decent, -WPO ish in December, so it would probbaly have to stall in 5...at least for NE. Probably not for your area and the mid atl.
If course. I'm not saying it doesn't manifest during the day at all..obviously it does...especially during the cold season. Summer is def more in the way of warmer nights and consistently higher dews.
I don't really give a rat's ass if the warm night time lows are more anomalous than the cold shots...sorry to those who lose sleep over that. Just give me a cold enough airmass to snow and a low over the islands.
Only part of that I don't expect is a -NAO/+PNA in the mean, but nor do I think either will be extremely positive and negative, either....there will be variance. WPO should drive this winter in conjunction with PDO.
I'm being facetious. But honestly...I don't care how much time is put in, you have to be mindful of trends with respect to bias and make changes to methodology when its not working out. This is why I have tried to incorporate climate change a lot more and address West Pacific aspects this season.