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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. I have come into to this season with the "believe when see" mindset. People forget how good things looked going into last December and it completely evaporated. I don't expect this December to be that warm, but point remains.
  2. Well, @WinterWolfwill be happy to know that Scott's November forecast is saved at the 11th hour!!
  3. Yea, I can't wait to score a couple of cold rainers before it warms up in time for Xmas so social media can brag about how wintry the month was.
  4. I figured it was awful where most live when I saw you post this.
  5. I thought the end of November and start of December would be wintry, bit its lasting longer than I had thought.
  6. Right...I see a lot of football spiking on social media...these morons were poking fun at seasonal forecasts that included any semblance of a southeast ridge and a warm east/cold west alignment. My response was "its November".
  7. I'm def. nervous about my +3 to +5 Dec range, but I'm not waiving any white flags yet. I think the lower end of that is still very doable.
  8. Eh...yea, our December idea is in peril, but I'm not sure we don't still end up +3ish on the month when its 60 on Xmas. Only thing I will concede is the cold looks to last longer than I implied.
  9. Mid levels would croak from like Dendrite into the White Mtns.
  10. That looks like something out of latter December 2002/early January 2003.
  11. Yea, I don't see anything imminent for my area that is worth getting excited over.
  12. Sounds about right...any semblance of winter is always eradicated before the holiday.
  13. Be sure not to clear the puddles from the board any more frequently than 6 hour intervals.
  14. If you want to convince me to take 2018 over 2021, I could probably buy it...but not even close on 2017 for me....hands down superior winter, I couldn't care less about February skewing the season warm. I would also take 2019 over 2018 because I got the one big dog in December 2019. I would rather one big dog in a sea of warmth then a slew of 2-3" front enders with cold that rushes into freeze the puddles.
  15. Not really...I see why it came off like that. I came into the winter least confident in my handling of the EPO, which you validated by pointing out a few days ago that its a bit of a tall task to have a disconnect like that from a -WPO. I was just saying that if this pattern were to persist in the seasonal mean, then I would bust a bit too warm and not snowy enough. Just a hypothetical....I also followed it up by stating that I still think December ends up warm.
  16. I still think I'm fine even with a cold first week of December because the warmth period mid month will overshadow the cold...the key will be how long the warmth persists.
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