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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I feel pretty good about December relative to my expectation, although I will probably be a bit too warm due to the unanticipated magnitude of that WWB. The lower and of my +3 to +5 my still work.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am on the same page as you.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Big difference I see from 2022 is the WPO, which is remaining fairly negative as anticipated. Even with that mild pattern, we still have higher heights in the Bering Sea. This is why the season shouldn't be as bad as that year.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not bad.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    January will be nice IMO.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea...Dec 2022 was my favorite analog going in.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    We may have had generally the right idea, just perhaps a bit more of a protracted cold shot early in the month relative to expectation, due to the extreme WWB.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    If it isn't going to snow, I would rather it warm up for selfush reasons.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I look pretty much on track right now ...probably end up too warm in December, but not bad.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    The strengthening PV can lock the Pacific pattern into place.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolutely.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, that is how I found out lol Taking out the trash
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Got a dusting tonight....first flakes.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I know, but I'm just elaborating by pointing out that SSW have a great deal of variation...some are great, while others can end winter. Safest bet is a nice Pacific...agreed.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    If its in Aisa or Eurasia, sure, but a displacement on this side of the globe is fine.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Without even considering the Pacific, a strong PV can still result in a good pattern depending on if and in which direction its stretched. Much of the guidance has had it tilted right in the direction of the NE, much like December 2007. Take a look st that month....veey strong PV and near records snows.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I went with more -WPO than -EPO, but same general idea. Agree.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Good summatization and agree. 2022 is a very strong polar analog.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I suspect you understand very well what he is saying....the implication is a consistently favorable, Pacific driven pattern. I defend you from time to time, but that is clearly a poor attempt at trolling. A strong PV in this case is not a big deal.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hopefully my area would be well positioned for that.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is consistent with my January forecast.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Holy split flow
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Wow, I think I wanna jump into @MJO812's cruiser now.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    "But an ideal manifestation would be when you do get a relaxation, and manage to avoid being 50+ on Christmas".
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Discuss and post pics.
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