40/70 Benchmark

2 years ago also had a huge SSW in February....agree that its a great polar analog. That said, I think being near solar max as opposed to ascending 2 years ago is somewhat less favorable.

I wrote about this back in the middle of summer, Larry. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/08/preliminary-analysis-of-polar-domain.html

He was implying that map would verify literally?? I didn't think he was doing that......I agree that is silly if that is the case. Not a fan of posting extreme data myself, but I thought he was just doing it to illustrate a point.

Best shot is Feb or March IMO.

For instance, consider a snowmap leading into a storm indicated a 40" snowfall for the megalopolis from Boston to Philly, but there is a disclaimer on the bottom of the image that this is about a 10 percentile occurence and represents the most extreme solution portrayed amongst over 50 ensemble members...raise your hand if you think the vast majority of consumers would refrain from impulsively posting it onto their feed....hell, many wouldn't even read it, never mind pay it any mind. This is what social media is today...an assembly line of rapid fire, fragmented thoughts that is driven by our ever shrinking collective attention span and need for instant gratification.

You need to consider this within the context of the modern climate...we aren't getting a -8 month, Larry....anything below normal over the east coast for a monthly mean in the middle of winter is pretty extraordinary....especailly realtive to the general consensus leading in.

I see what you are saying....I can't stand when long range snow maps are posted....or any for that matter. However, in the case of Bamwx, that post that was referrred to as "hype" followed up a video of approximately 15 minutes in length that described in great detail why they felt a colder shift was likely. That long range weekly was then added as a follow up to illustrate the expressed thought. You need to consider it in the proper context.... I guess I agree with your overall point, but not the source you chose to illustrate it. I also think that when you take the time to put forth a seasonal product, like Bamwx does, posting long range guidance that either supports or deviates from the previously stated position is more palatable. People have lives...not every post on social media can be a war and peace novel...its not practical, nor are those mediums really intended for that. Perhaps there should be a disclaimer on every post that the data may not ultimately reflect what will actually happen? But then again, would said disclaimer even be paid any mind by the vast majority of those using these platforms like "X", that are esstentially an assembly line of fragmented thoughts catered towards those with attention spans shorter than a NYC winter , and a proclivity for instant gratification every bit as immense as the blizzards that they crave. Your issue is with contemporary society and its projected onto long range forecasters.

Don, I think its pretty obvious that any forecast issued is said forecaster's " best judgment of how the pattern will evolve"....that is tacit. Its also commen sense that any long range forecast is subject to change, but I think most do explictly state as such. I feel like you are being overly fastidious with respect to semantics for the sake of disagreement.

Like @CoastalWx's undies?

Poorly Thursday AM Snowfall Over Higher Terrain Lower Elevations More According to Plan The forecast for the storm system that concluded late this morning was greatly flawed, as the system amplified slightly more than forecast, which allowed it to dig further to the south. While this did not have drastic implications across the lower terrain and valley floors, it clearly made a significant difference across the higher elevations. Note the disparity with respect to the degree of forecast success over the higher terrain versus the lower terrain. Given how marginal the thermal field was, a slightly more intense system coupled with a further south track was enough to turn a forecast for a light to moderate snowfall into a moderate to heavy snowfall in the hills. The forecast across the lower terrain, as mentioned, was not impacted and verified well. However, the 3-6" range predicted for the northern Worcester Hills and Berkshires would have been more representative of reality had it been 4-8", and extended southward into the hills of northeastern Connecticut. The forecast also would have been better served to have a 5-10" range over the Berkshires. Final Grade: D

Forecast for this AM was good across the lower elevations, where most of us live, however, it was pretty dreadful across the higher terrain. This was due to the fact that a slightly more intense storm and further south track relative to expectation turned the anticipated, marginal, light snow event into a heavy, damaging snowfall of over 6" in some areas. Final Grade: D https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/.../poorly... Looks to warm up next week, so an opportunity for forecast redemption is not imminent. However, the weather pattern does look to try to grow more festive between the holidays and especially after the New Year. rly made a significant difference across the higher elevations.

IMBY...sure. As for 1888 or October 2011, I'd just assume hope the world ended before renacting either...but if I had to chose, at least I managed a decent event out of 1888.

Never know? Maybe both? We'll see? Hope prevails?

I would have said that on March 6, 2001. Anafraud is never a wise investment unless you live on the windward slope of Mt. Dearclit.

"Over the tree, off of grand ma's butt, behind the front, off of the backboard, nothing but net".

Yea, depends on where you live....better for W SNE, anyway....

Yea, but I think we will maintain some poleward ridging, so latitude may help, as opposed to a wall-to-wall inferno.

I think its important to be remain mindful of the bias while still utilizing discretion to determine when it may be at play...for instance, I wasn't suprised to see it doing that in December, but IMHO, its a tougher sell to assume its again in error as we approach the new year. Possible, but the analog data suggests otherwise...perhaps it will prove too aggressive....

Nah....too easy Man, I need snow.

I hear you...I already said as much, though at least I didn't expect any more where I am.

I thought I recalled you explicitly saying that you kept to within two weeks...or maybe it was two week increments? Anyway, point being all we can do is use data as a tool to either lend support to or illustrate potential alternatives to informed expectation.

Tis the season

I'm honestly so exhausted by the past several seasons that I don't even care to engage deeply, or invest until I feel something worthwhile is literally imminent.

Better for some...this one trended worse for you and it was all moot for me.

The only options are to be Bluewave...god love him and how brilliant he is, but refrains from issuing a forecast beyond 2 weeks out....or to do a copious amount of research and hope to have long range guidance bare some similarities to the expectations based upon said research...that, to me, is different from blindly hugging a desired outcome. Long range forecasts are inherently prone to a large degree of error...no way around that.