40/70 Benchmark

To be fair, you need to put this into the proper context.....coming off of being boned for 8 years running I am doing that, sure. How many times have I kept slamming my head into a brick wall for the last several years to get to that point?? Take a look at my last couple of outlooks...you tell me. Trust me....if this reaches a certain tipping point of probability and lead time, I will flip a switch. We aren't there yet.

She doesn't even want the laptop in the hospital....ever since I tried writing some of my outlook when we were in for my first born right before Halloween. Gonna have to smuggle that shit and work pre dawn

They would be late, late night blogs for the sake of my marriage...while she sleeps

I feel as good about major snows in the long range as I do about the Sox interest in major FAs....on paper, there is no reason it shouldn't happen, but you get that pit in the middle of your gut that it just won't until it actually takes place. Until John Henry and the atmosphere both commit to large investments once again, we are resigned to broke dick storms and players, as well as 15×20 mile bands of prosperity and trades of top prospects for relative unknowns.

Went +3 to +5 in December, which is off....PNA killed me. I expected that in January, not December.

He's been calling for a January torch since last fall, so that's probably where it stems from.

I am so sick of long range CJs over the past 8 years...wake me when a major event is imminent

Happened in 2015...def.

Looks like 2010, 1995, 2000 and 1981 are best matches from a qualitative December temp anomaly standpoint.

1995 for me...had about 1'.

While I did go above normal temps and below normal snowfall, I had a whole section of my outlook allocated to the rationale for why the long term Pacific cold phase is coming to an end...given my forecasting bias, I felt compelled to assume it wouldn't have a profound impact immediately...we shall see. Looks as though I nailed the late blooming La Nina that many had given up on.

1/2"

+1/2" 2" on the season.

Right.

I am still pleased with asthetic appeal here for the holiday.

I think its a great analog.

Nope...just lamenting a lost month.

Been a total loss for me.

I did great in January 1996...Feb was meh.

People have a recency bias with respepct to -PNA...while I agree that its not as easy for a - PNA pattern to bare fruit for the east coast as it was 20-30+ year ago, its also not likely to be as anomalous or hostile as it was in 2023.

Pretty sure it isn't goint to torch, but I could see January 1996 turning into January 2022.

More the European suite than the GFS....

Well, I mean...we don't live in Barrow....the best seasons have shitty periods. Feb 1996 low-key sucked.

Just slam that STJ jet into seasonable cold with the arctic tundra dropping west into west-central CONUS.....I'll take that over hoping an H5 low closing over Norfolk can crawl up here before rigormortis sets in, or seeing the main show shield hit Will to Jerry and slide east.

This is why I don't mind seeing the GFS suite back off a bit...I'll take my chances at this latitude in January....even January 2023, with that trough down to baja...I had an active month with near normal snowfall. Last January, despite that absolute bloodbath...managed one of the best events of my life on 1/7. My largest worry at peak climo is precip, not cold. Last thing I want is seeing pictures of Steve's dogs digging tunnels and wolfie and Jerry telling me what a great season I'm having as I stare at cracked earth. Fu9k that-