40/70 Benchmark

I think most of us are just breaking your acorns when we mock you about that. ..pretty tough to deny at this stage.

See and that is what I really couldn't care less about...give me 2017-2018 all day long. I don't care that February being +123* C skewed the winter warm. But this is a more verbose way of saying adjust warmer from analog composites due to CC. We get it. Extreme anomalies are always difficult to forecast at extended leads. Agreed.

2013 was only slighly above average snowfall where I am....I would take 2017 over 2013, hands down.

I think most guidance has been too cold....and its also notable that the pattern looks more favorable, regardles of whether its too cold.

2017-2018 beat all but two or three of them for me in terms of snowfall...2010-2011 was close, but it certainly beat 2013, 2002 and 2009.

Retire in an absolute sense maybe, they still have utility if one accounts for CC.

I appreciate that because my work has definitely had a cold/snow bias, so I do make an effort to demonstrate that it isn't a conscious initiative or anything. While it is fair to say that I have some work to do in that regard, I am willing to bet that 99% of forecasters out there have been too cold and snowy in the east over the past several years. Even raindance, as exceptional as he has been and clearly the best in my mind, went very snowy in Maine for I think 2020-2021 and they ended up porked.

Great ("here" as in NYC) is your word; not mine. But I do standby my assertion that that could be enough for a decent winter for a much of New England, at least.

Man, PSL not updating those temp and precip composites is killling me. Hopefully that is fixed this month before I go to work on this winter.

Yea, textbook.

You are never going to see +13 magnitude anomalies in seasonal guidance...I think we all understand that. And my my money is on above normal in a lot of the east, but just not so extreme...all I am saying.

I think you are confusing my point. I am not claiming that the WPO is the silver bullet that will save winter in the east, but it is one factor. I have told you before that I do not expect the same magnitude of amplification with the trough out west as 2022, either...which probably ties into the WPO to an extent. If you want to bet on a reoccurence of that, then be my guest. 2022 with slighly less amplification out west would have been a good winter for my area...no doubt.

I don't think it will be as bad as 2022 for the east, either, but I do still think it has utility as an analog.

Raindance dropping a hot one on the 2022 analog. "You'll see a lot of people claiming 2022 as an analog for the winter. But the models continue to show a very warm pattern for the Southwest, with cold dumping into the Plains. In 2022-23, cold alternated between dumping into the West & Plains. That's not supported on the models."

That is huge -WPO.

The point that it hasn't been relegated to October. Its been omnipresent.

La Nina in and of itself isn't a big issue given in its meager intensity, but the larger issue is that persistent background state.

Well, when its been the most prominent feature for half of a decade, I think its a more viable indicator than the average bear.

Current guidance:

Here is 2023

Look at the disparity between the relatively high amplitude those years and 2022, which went into the shitter.

October 2021

October 2020

CFS seems to offer up some blocking working in conjunction with a PNA pattern, so perhaps some early cool shots in the offing. Obviously this doesn't really mean much in terms of winter and if anything, it could be a subtle negative since there is a modest negative correlation with this month and the cold season. All of that said, October is the first month that usually does offer some viable indicators that have some winter utility. The MJO is one factor I will be keeping close tabs this month, as @bluewavehas made some pretty astute obs concerning the connection between amplified maritime forcing (phases 4-6) during the month of October and deviation or disconnect from this hostile paradigm during the ensuing cold season (2020-2021, 2021-2022). The recent seasons that had a lower amplitude during this month ended up having a higher amplitude during the winter, which obviously kept the east milder with a greater dearth of a more wintry interlude.