That being said, it doesn't really change my mind with respect to anything in the grand scheme of things...just want to win dork-brownie points for verification purposes.
Yea, we have been saying that for a while now...I'm beginning to have some last second reservations about it TBH...especially with respect to intensity.
I'm about halfway home on this year's effort...bringing a renewed perspective this year that is less ENSO saturated and more CC conscious. Hope to post early next week.
Yes, which is deceiving beause the western Pacific was so different. Weaker MEI/RONI merely mean that that exatra tropical regions will be more influential, but it doesn't necessarily mean cold.
While obviously the climate has changed significantly since then, this is clearly the nadir of this cold phase and we should begin to see a recovery in the trend line over the next few years.
Interesting from a weather dork, statistical standpoint, but really not important in the grand scheme. We all know the PDO will be -5.56 in the seasonal mean and have known since like May.
This is what I said to @snowman19when he pointed out that 2016-2017 had somewhat of a +PDO, so we may see even less snowfall relative to that year. While that is true, I do not expect the polar domain to be quite so hostile FWIW.
I have been beating that drum for awhile now....are his posts one sided? Sure, but if that warrants 5 PPD, shit...take a look at my past couple of outlooks and limit me.
I think the past decade or so has aptly demonstrated that Pacific cooperation is more important than blocking in this stout, CC enhanced PAC cold phase.
It now aligns with where a lot of the seasonals have the warmth centered this winter....in the N plains.....wonder if cold from Canada may be abit more accessible to the NE relative to last year.