40/70 Benchmark

Nothing much.....all I am saying is that the years I chose to make that JJA H5 composite, which matches JJA 2024 at H5 pretty well, is currently supported by some of the seasonal guidance when rolled forward into winter. Again, just a FWIW at this point and even if it worked out, it will need to be adjusted warmer today to account for climate change.

More like 1970s IMHO....obvuiously warmer, before I get beaten over the head with 2016-2024 composites.

CFS....now I know I have it wrong.

What is interesting is the composite rolled forward compared to the JFM CANSIPS

Just starting to mess with analog composites....here is my first stab at JJA H5...JJA 2024 vs my early matching composite. Looks decent.

FWIW, 1970, which is one of my polar analogs, looks like a pretty decent JJA H5 analog. Definitely would not be suprised to see a modified version of 12/70 play out.

Ideally you want to be near the line....that looks more like a 12/2007 chain of overrunning events for the first half of the season, then the gradient relaxes a bit later so there is more room for amplification of waves.

Well, in a desperate attempt to shift gears.....the CFS and CANSIPS are pretty cold for winter. Tough to sell it as being overreliant on ENSO like last year....

Has guidance shifted? I'll defer, since I don't look at models from April through Snoretober, aside from climate and the tropics.

This maybe the most boring couple of weather years that I can recall since being a child.....if I hadn't gotten lucky with Jan 7 early on this year, I would be just losing my shit. This pattern is just brutal and relentless as fuc$....just murdering winter and now cane season. Hell, severe season dissapointed relative to even the paltry baseline expectation.

More like SEMA. I don't expect anything.

Yea, same page....I see something qualitatively similar to the past several years, but not so prohibitive.

It also has the nascent PV really tiled se towards NE...I have noticed a lot of guidance doing that during the winter, as well. CANSIPS does it, too. Good way to run a decent winter regardless of NAO. Good way to get an active gradient pattern.

I think most of us are pointing out the relationship between solar cycle and total ACE.

Goes along with the theme of a stronger cool ENSO than implied by ONI and a potent N stream.

I would be careful about getting to wrapped up in the Modoki index this season because the intensity of La Nina all things considered will be moderate at best. Theoretically speaking, it could be superceded by other extra tropical factors.

I don't know what a PMM is, but I'm sure a -PMM must be bad for east coast winter weather.

The older 500mb analog composites are pretty useless when derived from 1991-2020 climo because the whole map is blue.

Probably....I won't even look until this weekend if it still looks compelling.

I never explicitly said that I felt like it would have changed anything post 2015, but I probably should have elaborated since I did use some strong verbiage. All I meant was exactly what I said......we may never see a below average season again using 1961-1990 climo. As far as minimizing the warming trend....technically it does, but I feel as though the warming is tacit. Interesting you say that though because this is why I like to use the 1951-2010 climo period when doing seasonal stuff to normalize/standardize that.

Not totally unrealistic....I mentioned late last week that I could see something getting pulled N over Cuba and posing a threat. But talk to me this weekend. The main inhibiting factor is lead time.

I never suggested that it did. I'm not sure what the issue is, unless you are trying to argue that finishing colder than 1961-1990 climo isn't a taller task than it is for 1991-2020? I understand that nothing changes the fact that its been getting warmer...don't worry, no one is stealing your CC. All I meant was moving forward we should be measuring against recent climo given CC...I wasn't insinuating that it would alter the ranking of the past 9 years.

I really don't think it matters this season whether we have peaked or not. When considering the pervceived favorable period near the turn of the decade, I would like to peak ASAP to get that descending solar window out of the way.