Jump to content

40/70 Benchmark

Members
  • Posts

    72,826
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. I feel like I have learned a lot from the past couple of poor results. I will save you the trouble...won't be out prior to Monday.
  2. That being said, it doesn't really change my mind with respect to anything in the grand scheme of things...just want to win dork-brownie points for verification purposes.
  3. Yea, seems as though I am going to have to capitaulate at least somewhat to the guidance that has been backing off for the past month.
  4. Only reason I am quiet is because I'm balls deep in the Outlook...almost done with the Pacific, then the rest should be an easier task.
  5. Yea, we have been saying that for a while now...I'm beginning to have some last second reservations about it TBH...especially with respect to intensity.
  6. Eh...last year was utterly hopeless, but the year before wasn't far off from a decent season where I am.
  7. Thanks for that article by the way....I referenced it a couple of times in my work this season.
  8. I don't know, everything I have looked at indicates that it's more of a concern than a worry.
  9. I'm about halfway home on this year's effort...bringing a renewed perspective this year that is less ENSO saturated and more CC conscious. Hope to post early next week.
  10. Yes, which is deceiving beause the western Pacific was so different. Weaker MEI/RONI merely mean that that exatra tropical regions will be more influential, but it doesn't necessarily mean cold.
  11. Caveat being I wouldn't quite place last year's El Nino in that grouping...perhaps 1972, but def. not the rest.
  12. 1984 is the only event that was this meager from an ASO ONI standpoint that went on to sniff moderate (-1.1).
  13. While obviously the climate has changed significantly since then, this is clearly the nadir of this cold phase and we should begin to see a recovery in the trend line over the next few years.
  14. Interesting from a weather dork, statistical standpoint, but really not important in the grand scheme. We all know the PDO will be -5.56 in the seasonal mean and have known since like May.
  15. This is what I said to @snowman19when he pointed out that 2016-2017 had somewhat of a +PDO, so we may see even less snowfall relative to that year. While that is true, I do not expect the polar domain to be quite so hostile FWIW.
  16. I have been beating that drum for awhile now....are his posts one sided? Sure, but if that warrants 5 PPD, shit...take a look at my past couple of outlooks and limit me.
  17. I hadn't seen anyone so out of touch to suggest that Bluewave has a cold bias...bravo. Quite literally a first.
  18. I think the past decade or so has aptly demonstrated that Pacific cooperation is more important than blocking in this stout, CC enhanced PAC cold phase.
  19. Having a 1, 3 and 5 yo to take out tonight, bring it on.
  20. It now aligns with where a lot of the seasonals have the warmth centered this winter....in the N plains.....wonder if cold from Canada may be abit more accessible to the NE relative to last year.
×
×
  • Create New...