40/70 Benchmark

I get why some feel that way now, but I'm pretty sure that it will move west and into a central/hybrid event.

Common theme I have seen on seasonal guidance is active N stream, which makes sense given ENSO.

I broke my neck trying to interpret that relative to the east coast, but that looks pretty gradient laden.....PV is really elongated se, so NE would probably make out well.

We have raindance optimistic for the east...if we could ever get you on board in October, I think I'd travel to Times Square and do nude handstands in traffic.

I'm not as gung-ho as he is....really not a fan of the 2013 analog that he loves...but hopefully he's right again. He is hands-down the best seasonal forecast that I have ever read or interacted with.

Went entirely as anticipated with a brief window last night during which the winds jumped up to be more in line with the minimum central pressure. Should come in as a marginal cane, but like pope said...main threats are associated with water.

Agree, but I just mean for purposes of verification.

90mph peak....AWT.

I don't buy the guidance that furnaces Canada.

I think raindance said he expected the WPO to flip in October...wouldn't matter much for most of the east coast, but maybe the NE and def the midwest.

These are related......I'll bet we see the winds play catch up for a window overnight.

Former IMO....hard to imagine a pinhole eye given the organizational deficiencies (diffuse CDO) and envt. flaws (competing convection).

I only touched this bc I'm bored....kind of like at the end of a party....."I'm drunk, you're gross, let's go".

Tropics Awaken as Tropical Storm Francine to Approach Louisiana as Hurricane Landfall as Minimal Hurricane likely Wednesday Night The Situation: Despite the very long lull in the 2024 hurricane season, activity has resumed just in time for the climatological peak of the season today. As of 11AM EDT, the center of tropical storm Francine is located near latitude 24.9N and longitude 95.6W, or about 425mi southwest of Morgan City, LA. The system continues to gradual intensify with a current minimum central pressure of 988MB and maximum sustained winds near 65MPH. It is important to note that Francine has now began the awaited turn towards the NNE at 8MPH and this general motion is anticipated to continue through landfall on the Louisiana coast Wednesday night due to a couple of different large scale synoptic factors. Track Forecast: The slow turn of Francine to the NNE this morning is primarily attributable to its passing on the northwestern flank of a subtropical ridge centered over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. However, the system is forecast to accelerate in this same general direction when it falls under the influence of an approaching trough tomorrow, which will cause its movement to the north-northeast to accelerate. Guidance is on fairly strong agreement on this scenario. The trough currently over the desert southwest will not only impact the future track of Francine, but it will also have important ramifications on the ultimate landfall intensity in southern Louisiana. Intensity Forecast: There are currently mixed signals upon analysis of Francine's current internal structure. The system is clearly making steady, albeit deliberate strides towards hurricane intensity, as evidenced by the developing eastern eye wall seen in the microwave imagery below. On the other hand, the central dense overcast (CDO) continues to remain rather diffuse and disorganized with a large cluster of competing convection positioned to the northeast. It is this in conjunction with perhaps some dry air entrapment off of mainland Mexico that has inhibited the intensification process thus far. However, as the system begins to distance itself from Mainland Mexico this afternoon and into tonight, there maybe a window for a more significant period of intensification overnight as the system passes over a warmer eddy of water over the Gulf of Mexico to the west of southern Texas. The window for intensification will close around dawn on Wednesday, as the circulation of Francine begins to entrain some drier air from that same approaching trough that is causing the acceleration to the north and northeast. It is with this in mind that the peak intensity of around 90MPH should be achieved either late tonight or during the early morning hours of Wednesday. Francine will also encounter a zone of higher wind shear over the northern Gulf of Mexico during the daylight hours of Wednesday in association with the approaching system. This combination of increasing wind shear and drier air should induce a steady weakening after dawn on Wednesday through landfall Wednesday night as a marginal hurricane First & Final Call: The primary threats with Francine will be flooding and tornado risk given the significant wind shear aloft. Wind damage should be relatively minimal and confined to unpopulated marshland.

Here is my first and final stab at this one. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/09/tropics-awaken-as-tropical-storm.html

That fuels my idea about a potential 2007-2008 get out of fail free card for parts of NE if all else goes to shit.

I think that tells you all you ned to know about the degradation of the envt. on approach to the coast tomorrow.

That other blob is a non-starter for any RI....take that clear off of the table.

I think it looks okay for a TS nearing cane strength....not great.

I think the best window for intensification will be overnight tonight, as it gets a bit further from mainland MX and perhaps passess over an eddy of very high TCHP before the more hostile conditions set in tomorrow.

In terms of the consensus, I agree...this is why I qualified my statement with the term "relative".....all that was meant was the window for higher end that appeared to be opening a bit yesterday has closed.

Yea, I didn't think it was that difficult to grasp.

First of all, many were speculating on a 3 and some guidance was even hinting at 4. Secondly, I think cat 2 is a reach at this point. I think maybe 100mph is the ceiling, which jives with the NHC stating that their 100mph forecast was at the high end of guidance.

I don't think its going to become as strong as some were speculating. Should still be a hurricane, though. The operative word in my statement was relative.