40/70 Benchmark

Like @CoastalWx's undies?

Poorly Thursday AM Snowfall Over Higher Terrain Lower Elevations More According to Plan The forecast for the storm system that concluded late this morning was greatly flawed, as the system amplified slightly more than forecast, which allowed it to dig further to the south. While this did not have drastic implications across the lower terrain and valley floors, it clearly made a significant difference across the higher elevations. Note the disparity with respect to the degree of forecast success over the higher terrain versus the lower terrain. Given how marginal the thermal field was, a slightly more intense system coupled with a further south track was enough to turn a forecast for a light to moderate snowfall into a moderate to heavy snowfall in the hills. The forecast across the lower terrain, as mentioned, was not impacted and verified well. However, the 3-6" range predicted for the northern Worcester Hills and Berkshires would have been more representative of reality had it been 4-8", and extended southward into the hills of northeastern Connecticut. The forecast also would have been better served to have a 5-10" range over the Berkshires. Final Grade: D

Forecast for this AM was good across the lower elevations, where most of us live, however, it was pretty dreadful across the higher terrain. This was due to the fact that a slightly more intense storm and further south track relative to expectation turned the anticipated, marginal, light snow event into a heavy, damaging snowfall of over 6" in some areas. Final Grade: D https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/.../poorly... Looks to warm up next week, so an opportunity for forecast redemption is not imminent. However, the weather pattern does look to try to grow more festive between the holidays and especially after the New Year. rly made a significant difference across the higher elevations.

IMBY...sure. As for 1888 or October 2011, I'd just assume hope the world ended before renacting either...but if I had to chose, at least I managed a decent event out of 1888.

Never know? Maybe both? We'll see? Hope prevails?

I would have said that on March 6, 2001. Anafraud is never a wise investment unless you live on the windward slope of Mt. Dearclit.

"Over the tree, off of grand ma's butt, behind the front, off of the backboard, nothing but net".

Yea, depends on where you live....better for W SNE, anyway....

Yea, but I think we will maintain some poleward ridging, so latitude may help, as opposed to a wall-to-wall inferno.

I think its important to be remain mindful of the bias while still utilizing discretion to determine when it may be at play...for instance, I wasn't suprised to see it doing that in December, but IMHO, its a tougher sell to assume its again in error as we approach the new year. Possible, but the analog data suggests otherwise...perhaps it will prove too aggressive....

Nah....too easy Man, I need snow.

I hear you...I already said as much, though at least I didn't expect any more where I am.

I thought I recalled you explicitly saying that you kept to within two weeks...or maybe it was two week increments? Anyway, point being all we can do is use data as a tool to either lend support to or illustrate potential alternatives to informed expectation.

Tis the season

I'm honestly so exhausted by the past several seasons that I don't even care to engage deeply, or invest until I feel something worthwhile is literally imminent.

Better for some...this one trended worse for you and it was all moot for me.

The only options are to be Bluewave...god love him and how brilliant he is, but refrains from issuing a forecast beyond 2 weeks out....or to do a copious amount of research and hope to have long range guidance bare some similarities to the expectations based upon said research...that, to me, is different from blindly hugging a desired outcome. Long range forecasts are inherently prone to a large degree of error...no way around that.

Don, what is the alternative? Refrain from long range forecasting?

Looks like its picking up on the -WPO/EPO that should be predominate next month.

Agree!!

Storm must have slipped a bit south of modeling.

I had .16" in the gage and a a .01" coating. Jealous?

Could always change if they do.

Maybe some do? Others may move? We just don't know? Anything is possible?

Some of the guidance hinted at the best lift going south and looks like it did. I would have been pissed if it had mattered.