40/70 Benchmark

I also didn't care for how condescending he could be, either. Plenty of folks here that I don't see eye to eye with, but don't have any issues.

Does anyone know here to find an archived version of this to access past data?

I used his ACE composites...I not only cited it, but hyperlinked his twitter and strongly recommended him as a follow....but that isn't even it. He claimed I literally copied his seasonal forecast composites.

I don't care about passionately debating weather...no issue with that.

You thought accusing me of plagiarizing his work was fair dialogue??

Yea, he was a jerk, but a very good forecaster. I am not sure why you would post on a public weather forum if not for the desire to exchange forecasting techniques and share a passion for the weather. I did some snooping on the internet and it seems he was in it to try to pitch an idea similar to fantasy weather, but couldn't garner any investors so gave it up.

You sound like raindance before he evaporated. I agree to an extent...

I saw that...I don't read too much into that, but it may cause me to cut back a hair on the peak in the final product.

Dude, night and day between your post quality from now to like 3 years ago...I remember when everything was a blizzard with you..like literally. Lol

Should be a really strong push towards -1.0C in 3.4 over the next week or so before that happens.

La Niña should be peaking pretty quickly...

And even if you get the DM seasonal concept generally correct in terms of the mean index calculation, good luck with the timing of the seasonal progression.

You must be going by some other metric because we haven't had a negative NAO winter since 2009-2010 going by CPC.

You can....feel free. But given how difficult the polar domain is to forecast on a seasonal level, I consider every tool that I can.

Its just another piece of guidance, all of which have their stengths and limitations. It makes sense to me that it would fall flat during a super el Nino...for instance, the polar domain was actually pretty decent in 1997-1998, but due to the situation at hand it didn't matter. I think its fine to use the SAI to either increase or decrease confidence in a forecast and/or in the absence of no other prevalent indicators.

Yea.

I'm not debating your point, but I will say that I do think it offers some utility. I certainly wouldn't base an entire outlook off of it....I use it to either bolster confidence or to introduce an alternate perspective.

Well, you made sure to post his tweet when he said it didn't look good.

He just posted last week that it looked like crap after a promising start.

@bluewaveDo you have those graphics that you used to show how last season's extreme warmth was a blend of unfavorable cool ENSO and warm ENSO elements?

This is why some weaker El Nino events such as 2006 and some of the ones from the 50s were still warm....the extra tropical Pacific. Toned down versions of last year.

Its running comfortably behind 2022....but I'm not sure that matters all that much because the implication of this is that the hemisphere will be more prone to extratropical drivers vs ENSO, the most prominent of which continues to be the W PAC Warm pool. Remember...weaker doesn't mean "cold".....it just works out that way because the extra tropical drivers usually involve more cold than an ENSO predominate forcing regime would. However, in this case that isn't true. This is probably why @bluewavehas found that weaker La Nina hasn't bee helpful like it has in the past.

My guess is that correlation is greater now than it was 60 years ago. The polar domain seems to have had a greater capacity to counter a hostile Pacific back then.

29.7

Most of the periods of disconnect from the west Pac warm pool driven MC forcing has actually been in January into early February.