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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think you overstate the significance of the timing. The very amplifed pattern out west was the much larger issue than the timing....it sucked in December and it sucked in March. You aren't getting much snow in the mid atl with a trough that deep out west...doesn't matter when it is.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think Francine is going to be a relative bust, which is a microcosm of the season.....there is a reason why I have jumped to blog about it. I will probably put a one-and-done post out today, though.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think Francine is going to be a relative bust, which is a microcosm of the season.....there is a reason why I have jumped to blog about it. I will probably put a one-and-done post out today, though.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes...I was skeptical of that 2 years ago, but I'm now ready to buy that element of CC after getting burned badly. However, I think for New England its still not as bad as it appears because there was some bad luck. Mid Atl its game over in that pattern now....and def. more precarious for SNE.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Both good analogs IMO.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have always thought that was a given- Its still a bit more east-based than I thought it would be, which should change.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I never doubted you on that....I recall all too vividly how many times RNA has deprived us the spoils of the NAO blocking over the course of the past few seasons....especially in 12/22 and 3/23.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not too engaged on this one, but my inclincation is that final LF intensity will be comparable to Beryl in TX.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    44.8
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't weight it too much per se, but @Stormchaserchuck1's NAO formula was pretty dead nuts on the mean of my polar analogs as of a few weeks ago...though I think this has gotten more positive.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree. Perhaps the WPO/EPO behave similarly, but I think the PDO and La Nina are bad matches.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think 2007 is a pretty good analog...not perfect. Not a huge fan of 2013.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    That was my snowiest month of December on record.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    This looks like 2007-2008....could work with that. +1F either slightly above average precip.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    That looks decent for me. Seeing a theme among seasonal guidance of the heat being focused around the Texarkana with relative cooler values the deeper once goes into New England. Real 2007-2008 vibe...
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was describing that model output...nothing more.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm just getting a rise out of you. I don't see a -NAO in the seasonal mean or an east based event.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I never said Feb and March look great. I said maybe blocking tries in March. The NAO should average Positive in January, but there could be some carry over from December.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    He called it an east-based La Nina...that should prompt @snowman19to burn one or two of his 5PPD.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the EURO, like a lot of seasonal guidance, ran astray last year because it defaulted too heavily to stock ENSO...we may be seeing that somehwat heare. Probably not to the same degree given the background state right now, but I think we are going to start see that shift a bit moving forward.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think it will be as bad as the EURO...probably a compromise between that and the CFS/CANSIPS
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I wish it could be viewed monthly like the CFS.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hopefully it goes to shit when the wife goes into labor
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think February kills DJF....I don't think December into perhaps a bit of January will be bad.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks like the polar domain is servicable for December and into perhaps part of January and then goes to crap....this aligns with my thinking, but I also think we may try to get blocky late again.
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