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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. No way. My rationale is in here. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/09/consensus-aligning-with-expectations.html?m=1
  2. I don't think the MEI will be strong....-1.0 to -1.2. -1.2 to -1.4 RONI. -.0.8 to -1 ONI
  3. My use of the word archiac is more of a reflection of how fast the climate has been changging as opposed to how much time has passed since some of these analog years.
  4. I think it should be clear that when I say that I don't expect a furnace in Canda, its relative to our contemporary climate...not that is going to necessarily be "cold" relative to 1961-1990 standard...that may never be done again.
  5. Yea, I don't get why they can't just tweet out the updated value.
  6. Yea, naked cf twister. I had 21" between the two events...10" from the first and 11" in the follow up.
  7. Those were great back-to-back events in the lead up to xmas.
  8. I'm sure 08 beat it out where you are...the graidient was further south by like 50mi, likely due to a weaker cool ENSO regime.
  9. 1970-1971 was very much like 2007-2008. That was back before I did the outlooks, but I remember Will and I were discussing in the threads how that looked like a great analog during the fall and it was.
  10. December 2007 was one of my better months of December....right up there with 1995, 2008 and 1970.
  11. Man, I would take that map and run....I would do naked cartwheels across Antartica for normal snowfall at this point.
  12. I can buy the US getting another shitty winter, but I have never been on board with Canada being a furnace again...which menas the north will have a chance for some fun periods.
  13. I wouldn't mind that during the winter assuming warmth is not prohibitive (theoretical, not a forecast) because I would rather have volatility with large storms, then a consistent cold with nickle and dime events.
  14. Thankfully in terms of getting the forecast right, but unfortunate from the perspective of a NE winter ethusiast. What is said today is that forecasters on social media do everything in their power to mainiupulate the truth and avoid accountability for forecasting errors....but its the ultimate irony because what people really respect is transparency and a willingness to use errors as a vehicle for the self-reflection and critical thinking that drives growth and improvement. Karma is a b*tch.
  15. Is anyone else not suprised by the fact that @raindancewxwent dormant and decatived his X account the moment he thought the east may finally have a decent winter?
  16. I was never crazy about that analog, but I can see giving it a shout out due to how well it matches the summer pattern.
  17. ENSO has always been a strong point for me. My weaker point had been the polar domain, but I have improved a lot with respect to that in recent years. My current stuggles are adjusting to climate change and being too reliant on analogs that are archaic, relatively speaking. I will try to improve on that this season.
  18. Nor on the idea that La Nina would fail to develop...still think a healthy weak to bordering on moderate event per ONI is in the offing. This post is from July. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/07/enso-proving-deceptive-once-again.html
  19. Agree....shame because he was a great met when his intentions were more pure.
  20. La Nina being central based in and of itself is not a big deal...especially since it isn't strong
  21. Yes...exactly. It can either amplify/perpetuate or attenuate the pattern in place, but it does drive the hemispheric pattern in a vacuum. This is why there often a pretty exagerrated disconnect between the PDO and the PNA, the latter of which has a much more tangible impact on the nation's sensible weather.
  22. I'd give my left nut for a redux of that season.
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