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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, considering that we had only been in the cold PDO phase for 15 years and the warm AMO phase for 14 years, no one should have expected that the respective cycles were changing phases last decade. Looking back throughout history into the 1800s, there have always been smaller scale fluctuations that were counter to the concurrent multidecadal trend. As for CC altering the versions of the cycles as we know them, talk to me in 10 years, but for now that is something straight out of a Rod Sterling adaptation.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hopefull its dry for another month...then @Damage In Tollandand I can get away with just one more mow.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is why periodicity is a great guide...I would have called BS on that flip over 10 years ago. As far as the incorporation of -AMO analogs this season, that is part of the art of seasonal forecasting. I have always blended them, anyway, but perhaps that wasn't/isn't always the best idea....probably part of the reason I have struggled lately.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    1971-1972 could be a decent analog...I just don't like how La Nina died so early on in the winter season, which is probably at least partly why February was such a good month....maybe be an okay analog for the first half.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I haven't counted the days...all I know is that once we hit the preceeding month, the CFS has a decent conceptualization of how the next month will evolve.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think anyone has a shred of doubt that most of the east is going to finish above average....I couldn't care less about that. But the question is whether or not it will be to a degree that is prohibitive to a respectable winter throughout at least the northeast. Its like focusing on the fact that someone broke a nail in a 30 care pile up....forest through the trees. The relevent question is how serious are the injuries....no one gives a rat's ass anout the skinned knee.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nah, it has been decent at 30 day intervals.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    No question in my mind the AMO is getting ready to flip....its about every 30 years, so the periodicity aligns....1965-1995-2025. The PDO is also getting ready to flip simultaneously (1948-1977-1998-???) and I think you have to go back into the late 1800s to find the last time that they that occured.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think if that pattern persisted into much of December it would be telling, as well.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would keep your pants on until we get within 30 days, but that is consistent with the idea of -WPO running the show early on, which I endorse.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't really care whether or not Phil endorses it.....I have seen enough to be confident that high solar caps ACE.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, the RONI is going be be probably near the lower end of moderate......I began the summer thinking upper moderate, so that is good.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Interesting....there has only been one official La Nina since 1950 that has registered a JJA ONI this high, which is 2017 also at 0.1 and went onto peak at -1.0.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Jesus, that is confusing. I have never seen anyone make ONI and RONI into an equation.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think this bodes well for salvaging some sembalance of winter. Keep in mind the precise verbiage there....not expecting 1995 or 2013. JJA 2022 -0.82
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have it a bit lower than that. JJA 2024 -0.44 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    2020 and 2022 are good analogs in that respect...November to January for the peak with my money being on January.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think we are going to have something similar to this second group with respect to the N PAC.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    One thing I am certain of is that Canada will be colder this year than it has been the past few years, which means that even assuming another amplifying hydro-bomb blasts inland due to a western displaced baro-zone...there will be a hellacious front-ender on the coast as an appetizer. This is something we have been deprived of lately due to prohibitive warmth and bad timing.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    @bluewavehas indicated as such....specifically that Decemebr 2021 deal that left a trail of naked handstands from Binghamton to Dendrite.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    John, I wonder if that excess of heat due to the current network of adjoining bathtubs across the globe could also help to beef up QPF this cold season, as well....even if progressive due to the velocity in the flow, some of these waves that amplify may be able to tap into that. I mean look at the Gulf......interesting to see how much of that is compromised by the balance of tropical activity this fall.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just being an ass
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes. I was going to add that, but felt the varied impact of how said balance is achieved on humans was implicit.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I do not agree that solar isn't a player. While your analysis of the HC is likely a primary driver this season, even a curosry glance at the data implies a definitive negative correlation between the solar cycle and ACE output.
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