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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Perfect illustration of why CC doesn't automatically mean a 300 ACE every season....not to mention shear from an active Pacific. The globe finds a way to ensure that everything has a check and a balance.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I definitely think the high solar has something to do with it.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was mentioning that is a new twist this season per the CANSIPS and CFS and why they are colder.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I know...I have come to agree with most of your stuff. I just laugh because otherwise I'd cry.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Of course, Bluewave's state of the art optimism alert system promptly made him aware and he arrives on the scene in short order to fill the collective cheerios with urine.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks like the CFS and CANSIPS. I included 1970 in my preliminary polar analog composite, as it was a high solar La Nina. Don't love the +PDO look of some of those years, though.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Should be out Thursday.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    This make sense given the expectation for a meager winter and the penchant for hyper tropical activity to coincide with low solar.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/packages/c3s_seasonal/
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    JMA has warmer anaomlies in the north...not sure I agree with that.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    JMA has a similar pattern, but less amplified than the EURO
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    EURO is a carbon copy of 2022-2023...wow. Just a hair less amplified with the RNA, which could still work for a lot of NE.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    CFS looks even better, but qualitatively similar.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Watch, NYC will get 10" this December and a trace the rest of the season.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I like the orientation of the PV, though that is tough to predict on a seasnal level.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I neglected the WPO that season and it completely burned me, so I would caution against doing that for those pessimists.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Big difference from 2022-2023 is the WPO, as I intimated above and raindance has been hinting at all off season.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is something I have come around on...I was skeptical of it a couple of years ago. However, I still don't think well placed blocking is as futile as it has appeared the past few years, as there also has been some shit luck involved.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think that pattern would evolve very favorably given winter wavelengths.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Bias comes in a multitude of different varieties for a plethora of various reasons...we need to be just every bit as mindful of not allowing a recency bias to team with growing frustration to compomise objectivity as we do our innate desires and preferences.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    March
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    February...call me crazy, but I wouldn't call this horrific for the north.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Even assuming the model is a bit too cold by default due to CC....this is a horrific January?
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    December looks pretty -WPO to me....I think that could even work into the northern mid atl.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    The mean seasonal RNA is not going to be that amplified again and there is nothing anybody can say that will convince me otherwise. Just out of sheer probability alone, nevermind La Nina being significantly weaker....regardless of how intense the PDO remains. Lipstick on a pig, certaintly, but it is what it is and I will take my chances relative to last season.
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