40/70 Benchmark

It was a hypothetical statement....which inherently implies that it's not "locked" in...

The main issue with the 2013-2014 analog was that this past year was -EPO driven than -WPO, but if you compare H5 composites, there were plenty of similarities due to the fairly favorable extra tropical Pacific. 2012-2013 acted more like a warm ENSO event, with a mild December and a very active February/March.

I would suggest that you stop speaking in absolutes and folks would probably be more receptive to these theories.

This is because the 2023-2024 El Nino was partially masked by and competing with the forcing from the WPAC warm pool, which wasn't present during 2015 and 2009. Warm ENSO episode(s) later this decade and into the early 2030s should herald a regime change....but if not, then we will know something is up.

Not for a few more weeks....I'm a bit less optimistic overall than I originally was.

I think within a few years a more moderate El Nino could suffice, somewhere in between those two extremes....I am sure CC is enhancing this pattern, but its not entirely unprecedented, as the potent 1972-1973 El Nino also featured a great deal of MC forcing due to the Pacific cold phase. That ended later in the decade with the Pacific phase flip and a couple of meager warm ENSO events.

New England didn't get a great winter.

Exactly...that is what I have been saying. This is what I point out when Chris tries to explain that past -NAO/+PNA was more successful...they were -WPO.

Yep...left that out.

I took a cursory look back and couldn't find a stretch that has been as consistently strongly positive as it has been since 2017.

It's like I have said to you before.....it's folly to generalize ENSO by intensity.....2009-2010 was a different breed than prototypical stronger events...it was a full-fledged Modoki during an ascending solar cycle just beyond solar min. That is a mid Atlantic wet dream....it's no mystery what it evolved in a favorable fashion. Everyone and their mother was forecasting a blockbuster season that fall...it was obvious.

I would honestly pass on a STJ as strong as 2009-2010 again.

I agree with you that the baseline jump in temps is permanent, and also agree that we need to wait and see on the storm track. Like I was saying, I think most of our disagreements are just born of inconsistencies in the manner that we articulate ourselves and the points that we stress. We largely agree in a general sense.

Completely agree.....I am open to the idea of CC forcing that pattern, but as I have been saying...I would need to see it persist into the 2030s.

I don't think it will be, but I am open-minded about it...if we are still stuck in this pattern beyond the next solar min, then I will change my tune. Agree, or disagree, I think I have been pretty consistent about that. I pushed back on all of the west warm pool stuff at first, but that last El Nino changed my mind, so I have shown that I will acquiesce when the data warrants. This isn't a bias at play. I am on board with the warming....no contest. However, my baseline assumption is that ultimately earth will find a way to offset enough of this to acheieve balance and maintain the osciallations that we have always seen. I unerstand that may be incorrect, but I won't change my stance on that until I am convinced that everything has become stagnant for long enough that the oscillations as we knew them have changed. I know Chris feels that has already happened, but I think there is a pretty convincing case that it has not. I am not moving any goalposts......if this pattern persists throughout the early 2030s, then I will be convinced that the system as I knew it has changed and will offer a tip of the cap to Chris.

But when Kev's wife is around, some c*ck blocking develops around the Davis Straight...

He has that effect on some guys

I was just wondering which chemical in it were unhealthy and why....if you know offhand, great...otherwise I am sure I can look it up.

Why?

Yea, I'll pass on melanoma and leatherface.

What is MAHA?

Kind of reminded me of April 1, 1997, too.

1.66 Boned again.

I know Chris was not in this camp, but I remeber when a large contigent of folks were theorizing that the favorable extra tropical Pacific last decade was a semi-permanent change due to CC, too.

You mean there is a positive correlation between the equatorial Pacific waters during the summer and the subsequent winter season NAO?