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Long Duration Overrunning/Coastal Forecast Contest

SR Airglow

By SR Airglow,
in New England

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SR Airglow

SR Airglow

Posted
Posted

Deadline extended until 1201 AM on 2/8.

 

This is something I've been running on another forum for a couple of winters now and it's always a good time, so I figured we'd give it a shot here and see if there's any interest in it. The official rules and scoring guidelines are below, but basically, your goal is to forecast the amount of snow that falls at some of the major climate and reporting stations in our region, as well as the jackpot amount and location. I think it's a fun way to both quantify your thoughts and see how accurate you were, and it's definitely made me a better regionwide forecaster as a result. If you want to give it a try, leave a post in this thread with your predictions for each of the stations and the jackpot amount/location by 2 PM Saturday and I'll add it all up when the event is over(I've got a program that does all the calculations and scoring so it's a simple task) and let you all know how you did. 

 

 

Inaugural AMWX NE Snowfall Forecast Contest Official Rules

 

Goal: Earn as few points as you can by predicting snowfall as close to the actual number as possible.


How does it work?
Below is the list of stations that will participate in the contest. 
ALB
BTV
PWM

GYX
BOS

BOX
ORH
BDL
BDR

How do you get points? (This is a bad thing, you don’t want points!)
For each event, submit an exact guess for each station by the deadline posted. You will get three points for every inch you bust, high or low, rounded to the nearest tenth of an inch. If calls are submitted after the deadline, you will be charged a penalty of 10% of your subtotal score per hour the call is late, no exceptions.

If you do not make a prediction for a station, you will be charged the highest differential of any of the stations that you did make guesses for.

If a station does not report to NWS and it is clear that they received accumulation, I will use an average of the three PNS reports geographically closest to the missing station.

If a station is clearly over or under reported, I will accept an observation from a known poster on any weather forum or a series of nearby observations refuting it from a PNS. It must be a poster who is known to be legitimate, and you must post the post/observation  in this thread. I will not be reviewing reports, you must bring them to my attention.

How can you lose points?(Which is a GOOD thing!)

Perfect: If you guess exactly right on a station (defined as within .1” either way), you will get 2 points removed from your score.


Jackpot: Every person should choose an amount that they think will be the jackpot, as well as a location where they think it will be(City/Town name and state preferred). This is for all New England/Northeast NWS offices, that is, ALY, BTV, BOX, GYX, OKX, PHI, and CAR (Any part of these offices CWA’s is acceptable, including if it falls outside of New England).

Points can be removed as follows:
The person closest to the jackpot total, high or low, will receive a 5 point deduction from their score.
The person closest to the jackpot location will receive a 5 point deduction from their score.

 

 

Please ask any questions you may have, and good luck!
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SR Airglow

SR Airglow

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Posted

Inaugural AMWX NE Snowfall Forecast Contest Official Rules

Goal: Earn as few points as you can by predicting snowfall as close to the actual number as possible.

How does it work?

Below is the list of stations that will participate in the contest.

ALB 12

BTV 14 10 edited 1047 PM

PWM 14 12 edited 1047 PM

GYX 12 10 edited 1047 PM

BOS 15

BOX 8

ORH 14

BDL 8.5

BDR

3

Jackpot 21 Ray(Wilmington, MA)

 

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SR Airglow

SR Airglow

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Final results are below. A few notes.

 

  • Congratulations to ruNNaWayIcEberG on winning this inagural edition of this contest! A close second goes to N. OF PIKE, who had the lowest raw score but was just edged out on the jackpot bonus. There was a fairly appreciable gap between second and third, but the entries that finished between third and ninth were all relatively clustered. As for the basement, let's just say I'm glad my map for the website verified, because my entry sure didn't.
  • Overall, this was one of the closest contests I've ever run. Well done to all.
  • Everyone was too low on the jackpot amount(31"), but CTValleySnowMan and  ruNNaWayIcEberG both were the closest at 23" and therefore they each got a 5 point deduction. Ginxy was the closest to the location(Rockland, MA), and got a 5 point deduction as well for that.
  • BTV and BOX were the two stations that folks in general had the most trouble with, BOS and BDR had the least combined error points.
  • When entering a jackpot location, you need to specify a specific City, State so that I can come up with a numerical distance. It didn't affect the results of this contest as both of the individuals who entered a region(NE MA) wouldn't have won the bonus regardless, but I can't accept anything that isn't a specific point on a map.
  • In case anyone is curious, the record low score for one of these is -0.39, and the record high score is over 300. Roughly, a score in the 70-90 range is good, below 70 is excellent, above 90 need some work and above 150 is just plain terrible. 

 

Let me know what you liked, what you didn't like, and what should be changed if we were to do this again(And if you want to see it again!). Thank you to all who played!

 

Results(My apologies for the terrible formatting, it's the way that the program I use to calculate this outputs it and to code it to do so differently would be a mess.

Member Name Raw Score Bonuses Final Score Rank Distance from Jackpot

N. OF PIKE 61.3 0 61.3 2nd 27

SR Airglow 103.8 0 103.8 10th 31

CTValleySnowMan 76.9 5 71.9 3rd 35

donsutherland1 90.3 0 90.3 8th 52

Ginxy 79.5 5 74.5 4th 13

HoarfrostHubb 90.9 0 90.9 9th 31

ruNNaWayIcEberG 64.9 5 59.9 Win! Invalid(But wouldn't have won anyway)

CT Rain 89.1 0 89.1 7th 35

TauntonBlizzard2013 88.5 0 88.5 6th Invalid(But wouldn't have won anyway)

ineedsnow 87.9 0 87.9 5th 17

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

Final results are below. A few notes.

 

  • Congratulations to ruNNaWayIcEberG on winning this inagural edition of this contest! A close second goes to N. OF PIKE, who had the lowest raw score but was just edged out on the jackpot bonus. There was a fairly appreciable gap between second and third, but the entries that finished between third and ninth were all relatively clustered. As for the basement, let's just say I'm glad my map for the website verified, because my entry sure didn't.
  • Overall, this was one of the closest contests I've ever run. Well done to all.
  • Everyone was too low on the jackpot amount(31"), but CTValleySnowMan and  ruNNaWayIcEberG both were the closest at 23" and therefore they each got a 5 point deduction. Ginxy was the closest to the location(Rockland, MA), and got a 5 point deduction as well for that.
  • BTV and BOX were the two stations that folks in general had the most trouble with, BOS and BDR had the least combined error points.
  • When entering a jackpot location, you need to specify a specific City, State so that I can come up with a numerical distance. It didn't affect the results of this contest as both of the individuals who entered a region(NE MA) wouldn't have won the bonus regardless, but I can't accept anything that isn't a specific point on a map.
  • In case anyone is curious, the record low score for one of these is -0.39, and the record high score is over 300. Roughly, a score in the 70-90 range is good, below 70 is excellent, above 90 need some work and above 150 is just plain terrible. 

 

Let me know what you liked, what you didn't like, and what should be changed if we were to do this again(And if you want to see it again!). Thank you to all who played!

 

Results(My apologies for the terrible formatting, it's the way that the program I use to calculate this outputs it and to code it to do so differently would be a mess.

Member Name Raw Score Bonuses Final Score Rank Distance from Jackpot

N. OF PIKE 61.3 0 61.3 2nd 27

SR Airglow 103.8 0 103.8 10th 31

CTValleySnowMan 76.9 5 71.9 3rd 35

donsutherland1 90.3 0 90.3 8th 52

Ginxy 79.5 5 74.5 4th 13

HoarfrostHubb 90.9 0 90.9 9th 31

ruNNaWayIcEberG 64.9 5 59.9 Win! Invalid(But wouldn't have won anyway)

CT Rain 89.1 0 89.1 7th 35

TauntonBlizzard2013 88.5 0 88.5 6th Invalid(But wouldn't have won anyway)

ineedsnow 87.9 0 87.9 5th 17

Thank you for this contest. I hope that there will be more in the not too distant future.

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SR Airglow

SR Airglow

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Thank you for this contest. I hope that there will be more in the not too distant future.

You're very welcome, thank you for playing! As far as more, if the models have any clue, we'll have one for the weekend event up tomorrow afternoon with a likely deadline of Friday night/early Saturday morning.

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