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@BlizzardWx's site.

I’d prefer a sunny day if it’s going to rain might as well be epic

Excellent point and observation. It shows 2024, for instance, when it was so suppressed during the peak, wasn't just fluke. It now has happened 2 more times, all in a row? That is non-trivial, and definitely warrants a lot of study. And all 3 seasons w/ the peak squashed, it all has been for different reasons. Are the more reasons why this could happen? Not necessarily happens again next year, but what is the true range of possibilities here? I would argue there are more. This all goes into understanding TCs and environments more, and eventually leads to better forecasts!

-.39 updated today (different on 40/70's site)

Looks like rain in DC metro by 8 to 9pm looking south on radar

What part of an ocean basin is warmer or cooler than avg is a factor for TC b/c it impacts the general atmospheric circulation, and I bet for each tropical basin, it is a different configuration that aids or knocks down TC development/maintenance! Yes, the El Nino is very impressive, but I would be a bit reserved as to "El Nino is the strong on record, that means everything associated w/ it as to regional sensible wx is made more intense or worse." The atmosphere does not work on a linear curve, and unexpected deviations in parts of the globe occur more often that it is thought, but many focus on the more "classic" impacts historical and run w/ that. Given we are in uncharted territory, that may mean atypical results in certain cases.

Saw this posted earlier today on the TN Wx Forum. Hope seems meager at best these days...

Saw a flock of geese this evening in arrow formation. They know, overnight 50s and 40s are coming... 75F/DP 61F

True ratter here....wow, just about futility around Chris out in Greenfield.

I do not think it works that way, at least in a linear fashion. OHC is dissipated by other means in the season transition. All the OHC in the world is meaningless for TCs if the atmosphere does not cooperate. Look how how things were leading up to the 2024 season, and yes, it was active, but far from the 220+ ACE forecast (161 for the season). The peak climo of the season was taken out big time by unusually warm mid-level temps in the MDR along w/ the lack of instability, and the ITCZ unusually far N which negated robust tropical waves off Africa. Failure mode can come from things outside the traditional wind shear/TPW/SST when it comes to TC seasons, so using a single parameter or two will give limited forecast skill. Also, 1982-83 was a very strong El Nino year, and 1982 was suppressed, and 1983 was even more suppressed (lowest # of NS in the satellite era w/ 4). So would caution thinking next season is "all set."

It’s weird because they def are not nuts about the lawn and landscaping like I am. They have a fertilizer service and do the leaves weekly in the fall etc. but this was a new wrinkle this year. They used to use one of those metal rollers that don’t work and I guess finally decided to go balls in. I mean I’m sure it actually worked pretty well . I didn’t have the heart to go over there . But he knows I’m a ball buster , so rest assured I’ll be over there in the next week or so to discuss. They’re Canadians … maybe that’s what they do up there

In the large picture, it just goes to show there is a *lot* more to TC genesis than low wind shear, high TPW, and warm SSTs. The 3 alone are not enough. Some questions, the larger circulations that modulate things, like the MJO, Walker Circulation, subtropical high, and Hadley Cell, as some examples. Small deviations in these can mean big for sensible wx as far as TCs go, and they are not all fully understood esp. how they interact w/ each other, and alongside the most dominate cycles/circulations El Nino/La Nina. We know why the MDR is shutdown now, but outside of there? I do not think there have been much study as to cycles/more or less favorable for the subtropics and mid-latitudes. There have been some Atlantic seasons not nearly as suppressed as this one, and atypically large amount of ACE for the season is from TCs that form outside the tropics.

That quite impressive for Sep. Major dust outbreaks are usually done by early August in more typical seasons. Throw this in w/ wind shear?

Someone who puts in that much time and effort, surprised he doesn’t just have like a Milwaukee backpack vacuum… some of those things will suck the earth worms out of the ground lol.

About 6 - 8 hours away

He was out there from about 11-4:00. The thing is… there’s still thousands to come down.

November 12th

Not really. Typical.

You know he’s emptying that shop vac in your yard when you aren’t looking…

Do you really need to Sey-Mour-Rain though?

Noon. Later east of the city

How late in the day should do we see the rain clear out?