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thanks. saw it did very good on the Jan 25-26th storm, just curious about it. too many models..

Slightly west of 18z

Euro AI is back on board for a major storm. If the regular Euro and EPS jump on board tomorrow that would be huge. Hopefully we can get a big bump west, big 12z runs coming up.

It’d be pretty wild if we reeled this in, in any capacity this late in the game. Let’s see if trends continue tomorrow or we see models bounce back toward their original solution. 95 east should for sure should be intrigued at the very least

I didn’t word that great, I disagree with picking and choosing that it sucks vs is good depending on how much snow it shows. Picking and choosing because certain models are better in certain setups or you are seeing something in the large scale pattern that favors a certain outcome…. Yeah that’s good forecasting. I’m criticizing doomcasting, not what you are doing. Wanting the Euro suite to stabilize as a hit before buying in is reasonable. My issue is with the side with the models that show the least snow process (imo a lot of people have overcorrected due to recent lean years). Again, you aren’t doing that, and honestly I don’t disagree with you. I’m not on the blizzard train myself. I’m not ruling it out, but gun to head I’d favor a glancing blow. Once the Euro stabilizes and what solution it locks on to will be very telling.

What exactly does Weathernext2 show and where do you see it?

Good news is i wont have to do a map for this stupid event did anyone in CT even get measurable? We'll find out tomorrow, im sure Norfolk 2SW got a half inch somehow.

Was that last weekend? I always think of PD storms as being around Feb 20th and I am not that familiar with how various states celebrate the occasion. Will have to read up on it. Just finished reading up on it, apparently Washington's actual birthday adusted to the Gregorian calendar was Feb 22nd (1732) but the holiday falls on the third Monday in February in most states (not all). Lincoln's birthday was February 12th, 1809 So this storm could be labelled Washington's Birthday Blizzard although it won't likely start until the early morning of the next day. Anyway now I know a lot more about Presidents' Day, and apparently one of the few states that does not observe the holiday is Delaware.

It would have to happen on President's day weekend...hence the PD abbreviation, lol

Could this be designated PD-3 (or PD-III) if it proves to be a heavy snowstorm anywhere in the east coast region? Or would that happen after the fact only?

It's an outlier within that group, but it belongs in that group relative to the other 3, as it's much closer to the CMC/AIFS on track and having at least significant snowfall, especially at the coast.

The GFS op is definitely an outlier with the ridiculous amount of snow it’s showing in southern NJ, Delmarva, Maryland. No other model shows anything even remotely close

Model Mayhem continues. So, at 0Z, the Euro/UK/ICON all have the surface low move ENE from Cape Hatteras with very robust precip fields (with snow on the NW side of those fields) that are just too far SE to do much for people who live on land, while the GFS/CMC/AIFS/Weathernext2 have surface lows that move ENE from about Norfolk, 100+ miles N or Hatteras, with robust precip fields which are close enough to land to put down a lot of snow at the coast and lesser amounts as one goes inland. Which camp do I believe? No idea, but I will say that the fact that the 0Z Euro ensemble mean is well NW of the Op Euro tells me that the Op Euro has a decent chance of being a bit of a SE outlier and that it should move NW and show more snow. If that were the case, that would tip the balance towards a snowier solution, IMO, since right now, the two best models (Euro-AIFS and Euro-Op) are in different camps.

Oh yeah the mean went up on the EPS and AIEPS with several big hits in there about 8-10 on the EPS

This has actually been the most consistent part of forecasting this the last couple days, the inverted trough/NORLUN feature plus the general lighter snows having to do with the upper level feature dropping through. The last couple model runs have been fairly consistent across the board with delivering a light to moderate snowfall. The 0z suite is solid in C-PA, Euro included, with ensemble support for such things. What is still wildly different is the evolution of the coastal itself. 0z GFS threw down like 30” on a big part of the Delmarva, while the 0z Euro has 1-2” at best there and way offshore with the developing coastal.

you have some weenievista maps, wxbell isn't out yet

Eps is also improved. Nice trends.

@psuhoffman the Ai ensembles have snow by tomorrow night lol

Euros been out for a while, its worse than 18Z but better than 12Z. still off shore

We’re not at Mid range. Storm basically starts day after tomorrow

So Ukmet, Icon and Euro dont have much of anything. Gfs, Cmc and the AI models at least give us a moderate event.

…AI euro MUCH improved‼️‼️

Forgive me, but...why do you always sound surprised everytine there's model discrepancy in the mid-range? The models are not so good that chaos at this range is some kind of unthinkable thing, lol

Yep, on its own for now

Euro is bleh. Better than 12z but significantly worse than 18z.