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Lows of upper 60s or higher are when I start using the AC. 57.4° this morning…didn’t even need the window fans.

While these climate models through 2029 could just be repeating the 2025 initialization, the winter forecast is still in -PDO mode. There was one model initialized in 2013 that successfully forecast the +PDO shift we experienced in 2014. It could also be related to the western ocean basins warming fastest to the east of Japan and New England with mean ridges in those positions. I am just putting this forecast out there since it was recently issued. But don’t have any info on how reliable it is or whether the next run will show some type shift later in the 2020s. https://hadleyserver.metoffice.gov.uk/wmolc/

"Hot and somewhat humid conditions are on tap for today with the risk of afternoon and evening isolated showers and thunderstorms...but most locations will remain dry. A much better chance of showers and thunderstorms exists Friday especially north of the Connecticut and Rhode Island border...where localized torrential rainfall and an isolated threat for severe weather will exist. A few showers and thunderstorms will remain possible Saturday but with temperatures cooling to seasonable levels. Mainly dry and seasonable weather is expected Sunday and Monday before the next chance of showers arrives by next Tuesday and/or Wednesday" Not terrible. Summer like.

Just ticked that 90 yesterday. 90.0 was the high for the day.

Already have the living room down to 66° with just the fans. I have zero opposition to air-conditioning and use it when I’m uncomfortable, I am suggesting that this is not a hot stretch of weather yet.

This one had some of my blood in him, was a dog tick, not a tiny deer tick.

I'm up to three actual bites and multiple crawlers.

I’ve had about 2-3 dozen. Another 3 tonight although 2 were tiny nymphs. Mosquitoes were insane tonight too.

So far DVN has confirmed 8 tornadoes from last night. Also, SPC had issued severe watch instead of a tornado watch.

MAM 2025 ONI (NOAA): -0.1 MAM 2025 RONI: -0.53 May 2025 PDO: -1.71

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First tick of the year pulled off me. How many more to come.

Debated this myself earlier. If I open windows it won't be quite cool enough, so put the inverters on 64 and Quiet. With the outside temps relatively cool they won't run a lot, but the air circulation when they do is worth it.

MJO looks like it is 1/2 to 2/3 magnitude of this time of year in 2022, and off by about 8-12 days for timing. So it's not perfect. It's not like the years have been super different and just snapped into place. Jan 2022 and Jan 2025 both finished super cold, even though the cold entered the US from slightly different origins, and again the timing is off.

Although, I think 2022-2023 with a bit less extreme troughing out west would have been pretty good...I doubt the RNA would be that extreme again.

KODI HTPC

NICE! Quess: Where is the Cold Front? It's going to be a Hot Summer.

2022...great, said no one east of the Mississippi except for @snowman19....

As much as Kevin pushes back against it, tonight really is, a cool the house, with fans and open windows kind of night.

Yup...was telling my friend earlier, we probably want tomorrow to have very little in the way of storms with Friday holding the better potential. I wish shear was a tad stronger but I'll take some intense pulse type storms.

The Spring globally had at least a passing resemblance globally to 2022. That's consistent with my idea of a pretty wet Summer in the deserts of North America (MX/SW US). The big highs from Japan due east and off the SE US, with low pressure Aleutians to North Dakota are similar. Southern Hemisphere and Asian Plateau setups are pretty different but those aren't super important for us in the Summer in the US. MJO has a passing similarity for late May in 2022 v. 2025 in terms of the wind anomalies by the tropics at about a 1-2 week difference for timing (green on the images for 15N-15S)

Friday has that look, where we don't overturn the air mass on Thursday and end up doing the marginal risk on Friday instead.

500 temps drop slightly tomorrow in the aftn

Even keeps that pseudo EML through Friday. The shear is meh but that's some pretty hefty CAPE for these parts (MLCAPE 2500-3000). But yeah tomorrow probably has some capping issues but that weak boundary could be enough to set something off, especially early evening. Friday I think may have a bit more potential for storms.