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I'm still trying to figure out the odds of my 12 month rain total being 14" below KMDT. When did they shut off 3 mile island? Sent from my SM-X210 using Tapatalk

Another 80 today Peak dew 74

I didnt start a thread... bit marginal for iso 5" by 12z Friday but certainly a general 1-3" event coming with uncertainty on best axis 5. Someone will probably get into an iso FF situation- water rescues etc but its not widespread enough for me to thread. Of continuing interest for me is additional rainfall Friday-Sunday morning per closed low connection to our south. If that happens... we could be blessed with another 0.1-1.5" N to S. across our subforum. It seems to me the front will hang up closer to us than now modeled.

GEFS also more robust with two storms

18z GFS figured out there will be two storms

Same here, light rain in Marysville with .01 on the board.

it's stuff like this that makes me want the aviation industry to be bankrupted =\ it's bad enough that the seats are too small and too tightly packed but they also annoy the people on the ground.

LGA is a huge problem. It's just too busy. JFK has some cases like what you've mentioned too but it typically happens only early in the morning. But I hate those loud noises too. Nothing worse than having your day interrupted with multiple loud house shaking planes come by one after the other.

Most of that in one storm (2.21 I think)? Which also matches the exact total of the entire month of August lol.

Over the many years I've seen tropical systems reach the Azores and even Portugal itself but North Africa? I don't recall ever seeing that. Anyone else? Imagine if it circled around for a second run across the Atlantic, storm trackers would lose their minds. (Yes I know the Sahara would make that problematic. How about a run into the Mediterranean? LOL)

They need to get that expansion started which will extend the runway at Tweed. Then they would not need full power to take off with a slightly longer runway-the neighbors must hate all the racket there!

1.09 on the day. Nice drink for the lawn. Turned the central air back on for the first time in about a month. Not the temp, but the humidity.

Not surprising that models are flip flopping all over the place. GFS after losing 94L for a while now develops it in the 18z run. Given how robust 94L has looked, I've always sold the idea that it wouldn't develop, but let's see how it handles interacting with the mountains of Hispaniola. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 10 (3) Hurricanes: 6 (1) Major Hurricanes: 3 (1) Fernand, Gabrielle (MH), Humberto

Yeah there's one piece that seemingly wants to be in place, but unless the ridge is rolling over into SE Canada it's going to be hard to block an escape if this tries heading our way. We'll see how much, if any, things change as we get recon/balloon data and see how Humberto affects things. Part of me is wondering if Humberto takes off intensity wise and gets poleward faster for its escape if that closes the door for a future Imelda escape. I mean the 12z Euro (we sell for now) does what it does because that ridge builds over the top and into SE Canada before Imelda can escape. I still think if anything this is a Carolinas threat or OTS but we have a long way to go.

I recommend folks who are curious follow the Invest 94L thread. If 94L isn’t pulled toward Humberto (via Fujiwhara), portions of the SE US may be in danger of a hit from 94L per the 12Z EPS, 18Z Icon, and others. In addition, the MJO is forecasted to be in phase 2 9/27-10/3. That has been the single most dangerous phase for the Conus overall since 1975 during Jul-Sept overall.

2.30”.

I hear both all the time. By the time the roar of the first plane is about to totally dissipate I hear the whine of the next plane approaching. Ever since 2012 LGA permanently switched over to the "Tennis Climb," which they used to use only to avoid the US Open. That puts the planes right over eastern Queens. Not only that, but the frequency of flights has gone through the roof with updated technology and they also fly 1000 feet lower, which all just compound the noise problem. https://qns.com/2025/09/meng-quiet-communities-act-aircraft-noise-queens/ And I know the towns of Hempstead and North Hempstead are suing the FAA.

Closer view of the Icon

hey guys how much rain has central park recorded this month so far?

Example: 18Z Icon: no Fujiwhara and 94L gets stuck under the strengthening US Great Lakes ridge and subsequently turns NW toward C FL: Edit: And the GEFS/EPS are forecasting this to be during the potentially dangerous phase 2.

It took 6 hours of mist but I'm on the board at 0.01" Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Fall color starting to pop at the top of Smith Mtn (about 2k'). Maple, elm, and hickory mostly. Oaks still mostly green but the acorns are carpet bombing everything lol. Lots of pines on the mtn so it looks really nice during peak with the contrast.

Followup: Upon closer inspection, 40% (20) of 12Z EPS members affect a portion of the SE with either a TC direct landfall, a skirting of the coast, or a weak remnant. Also, a clear majority of members that weren’t steered by a Fujiwhara from Humberto were in that 40%. So, whether or not Humberto pulls 94L into it might turn out to be the crucial factor for whether or not the SE US is threatened.

words and phrases like *lull* and *rounds of rain* should be banned from TV, TV Mets are unintellectual robots who use the same words over and over again.