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Weather models cry wolf. Can't handle blocking well in 2026. Everything pushing out to sea, or well South.

6z EURO most impressive with the LLJ

And then by the end of this century under modest SSP2-4.5 assumptions. Philly should have winters that resemble those of early 20th century, Memphis, TN, summers that look like those of early 20th century Shreveport, and full-year analog of Memphis, TN. Winter Summer Full-year

As we head into the middle part of the 21st century under modest SSP2-4.5 emissions, it looks like this. Note, if SSP3.3-7 or SSP5-8.5 are correct, then the warming will be even more robust. I know the latter was "retired" but some still say *actual forcings* aren't too far off from that projection, even if emissions are substantially lower. By mid-century, Philly winters will likely resemble those of the Pacific Northwest, with summers looking like early 20th century Fort Smith, AR, and the full-year looking like Chattanooga, TN. Winter Summer Full-year

big forecast bust so far today. beautiful day, mostly sunny 70F DP 58F

This is really coming along well. Here is Philadelphia. First, recent observed conditions (2016-2025). We can see recent winters feel like early 20th century Asheville, NC; recent summers resemble those of early 20th century Wilmington, NC; and full-year closest match is Knoxville, TN. Not perfect match, as Knoxville had warmer highs, but fairly close. Winter Summer Full-year

You know this is going to find a way to miss. I’ve seen posts about this for what seems like a week now. Im sure I’ll be apple picking with the kid on Saturday with mostly cloudy sky’s and a stiff breeze. Hoping to salvage some of the weekend

Light rain falling. Good for my grass seed.

that track with a lower pressure would be fun

Watch gfs come 200 miles west at 18z

12z UKMET's your dealer if you're seeking a d-drip hit off this thing ...

With lots of mayonnaise to at least moisten them a little bit.

Pouring Southside of winchester. Nothing at home 3 miles away.

What a beautiful coastal setup being advertised today. Too bad, it's not January or February. Hopefully, this is a premonition to how we may possibly see some systems set up this winter.

What happened to all the pinks on that Map? The widespread 2" QPF is gone.

Dendrite holds the power. Don't piss him off or he'll ban you. Not much of a sense of humor.

yup GEFS also heading east a bit.. hopefully the Euro holds .. but then again this also happens with winter storms sometimes just to bring it back

12z guidance all showing the piece of nrn stream vort coming due south into New England does not phase in to the west, but moves on top and helps squash this.

I would be down for the GFS. Would spare the entire weekend.

CoastalWx is "the boss" in this subforum a torchy 66/55 currently in my hood @powderfreakI turned my heat on this morning

Ha y'all's just got model magnified ?

Canadian east too. He's got this.