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Pretty wide spread still. Aug 18-22 most likely IF it threatens imo.

We think this is that

Earliest heat wave is Feb 2020.

feels like we are gonna pay for this at some point

I appreciate you doing that for me. That makes me nervous, knowing there may be absolutely nothing to stop it from gaining strength and on top of that, shooting directly at Florida or into the Gulf.

Basically, this one could very well be a threat to either the Gulf States, Florida or the East Coast and there's no telling until about 5 days or so from now. IF it did happen, what would your best guess be on the date that it would arrive to Contus?

Models did the same thing in 1954

Got me a new complete weather station coming tomorrow.. looks to be a lot more accurate that my last one ... opinions?

The EPS and GEFS both came out hot with current 96L as well and slowly backed off to the point now we're seeing significantly less individual ensembles even produce a weak tropical disturbance, if anything at all. The EPS was consistent with the quick recurve north and looks to have notched a victory here with regards to track, but initially it was much more potent with 96L. All of that to say... Until there's an actual tropical system, these models usually run hot on development. I think this next wave will take longer to develop than currently modeled. I believe the pattern favors the next wave making it into the SW Atlantic, and the environment is much more conducive to development. Give it 4-5 days here and the ensembles will be telling

Just noise, otherwise seems locked in.

The PDO is not good. Extremes in, though, weather can wreck havoc. I remember some of those extremely -NAOs turned out to be terrible here. The NAO cycle right now appears to be trending towards more negative episode. I am gonna guess it fires early and holds off/on through January(beginning in late November). We are always fighting something. If it isn't the PDO, it is something else. However, during the last few winters we have found extreme cold making its way into the area despite a multitude of bad teleconnections. Until I see otherwise, I am riding the seasonal trend of cold early to mid winter. One of these days that extreme cold is gonna hit the atmospheric river over the TN Valley. I am gonna be here for that action Lord willing!!!!

The blues over the N/E US and reds over Canada are showing a jet stream that's pushed north well into Canada -- which will make it more difficult for any storms that develop to recurve out to sea. Other than some cool-ish sea surface temps in the eastern basin and maybe some occasional drier air, there's no real obvious feature here that could hinder development. My guess is that it might take longer to develop than some of the models currently have, but it's a real threat if it makes it into the western basin with that upper level pattern in place.

You need some new friends

What I notice most is how backed up the mid-latitude jet is, as there are 3 regions with lower 500mb heights than the warmth to the north. When I mapped DC and Baltimore's top snowfalls/snowfall months/snowfall seasons, the same thing is true.. there are 3 areas of lower heights than even the -AO/-NAO +500mb heights to the north. This tells me that general -H5 is more important than having Polar blocking. I think the problem with my analogs is that the northern ridge is too far north: over 90N. 90N puts a mean trough at 45N, but not as much 39N. We need classic Greenland/Davis Strait blocking to do better. Unfortunately with Arctic ice melt, it's something that reverses 100% the following Winter, and that's centered 90N. I think this is why the new Euro seasonal has ridging/blocking centered at 90N.

Like I said, that's immaterial. This is a statewide average. This month was hotter even with the raw and unadjusted data. The mean of 105 stations was 78.94F, versus a mean of 78.83F in 1934. And that was with a lot fewer stations (50) which were more biased towards warmer, low-elevation and city sites. The 1934 data is also biased up a bit due to the observation time being 5 or 6 pm in the afternoon for cooperative observers, versus 7 am today. Even ignoring that, it was still hotter last month.

With the exception of 2014. All the others were below avg snowfall for me too

Does that mean we revert to colder anomaly or does it mean less hot anomaly but still hot anomaly? We need the northpac to cool off obviously but until I see the blues of its hues in current pac ssts anomaly, don’t know if that map means much.

^Phoenix broke their all-time August monthly high at 118F yesterday.

Any chance you could explain this like I'm 4 years old? (I'm trying to learn, forgive me). If not, totally fine! I'm probably in way over my head trying to learn tropics.

It will likely struggle somewhat initially as SSTs are very marginal at first:

Well, I'm glad I came here after a 5 month break (winter destroyed me, still in Richmond, VA) so I left the forums for a while. I'll keep peeking in here this week and next to see if anything major changes. Maybe I'll be the forum storm chaser if something does occur. Knowing my wife (she doesn't listen) she'd end up still wanting to go if a cat 5 hurricane was aimed directly at Tampa. Joking, kind of....

Devil will be in the details as usual, but not the most friendly UL pattern to recurve TCs. Will need a weakness in the ridge that doesn't involve a cut-off low to the east of the central/plains ridge, sloppy development, or other smaller-scale (unresolvable at this distance) features to disrupt this as there's not much in the way of PV Streamers/TUTTs, the jet is displaced pretty far north and the WAR has a higher than normal chance of being an obstacle to recurvature.

I sorta answered my own question going back to 1930, Blacksburg, Roanoke and Lynchburg all dropped 4 more places.

Looking at xMacis, the unweighted average mean temperature was 78.94F (average of 101 stations). In 2012, the unweighted average mean was 78.98F (average of 127 stations) and, in 2020, it was 79.00F (average of 109 stations). Looks like the gridded values for all three were identical. July 1934 was the hottest in Virginia during the 1930s. The unweighted average for that month was 78.83F, but adjustments for time of observation bias and equipment changes (MMTS a little cooler than CRS/LiG) bring it down somewhat. Even so, this year beats it straight up even using raw, unadjusted data. Also, you aren't factoring in that a lot of those sites have different months ahead of this one. It is certainly possible for a month to be record warm as a statewide average if it's near record warm across the state and the years ahead differ among the sites. This is looking at the statewide average.

Yes, especially since I will be on the shore the last two weeks of August. It has been 50 years or so since I had to evacuate while on vacation in OC.