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I thought I was safe in Maine but being close to the coast is gonna kill me.

..at least some people may be able to fiil their tubs with free water lol...

Looks like those NAM runs from like 4 or 5 cycles ago. Not the ones that brought mixing to dendrite ,but maybe those runs just after that where it was still bring it to the NH border pretty easily.

I've ignored the NAM every single cycle.

It would be hilarious and absolutely fitting if SNE in it’s entirety ended up cold rain.

Then it gets colder after that initial warm push

Yeah this one is for SNH and maybe watatic lol.

Rain is dancing on my doorstep on this run...

Yep sucks for most of mass

A former coworker moved to that area and he was amazed by the microclimate that exists there.

just analyzing the last several cycles of this guy ... the reason it is so robust isn't really rocket science. It's straight up meeting the bombogenesis check list. 1004 mb --> 987 type spread in 12 hours is sufficient. But what comes along with that is the total potency in the deep layer... There's clearly going to be a whopper frontogenic band with something UVM exotic in the 700 mb ...probably smack in the growth region of the sounding - just based off the (synoptic + experience)/2 one doesn't really even have to look at the software to see that's the case. The question is ... is it all right ? proooobably not. I gotta say, back in the headier days of 2005, the then ETA ( I think it was still the ETA? but either way) was pimping a bomb big time, and the reason was pretty clear why then. I'm not sure I'm seeing that set up here, because the antecedent frontal/thermal compression from NJ to Cape Cod is not nearly as extreme in this case. I think the NAM is over processing in that lower levels as systemic bias in that model - it's probably why it has a NW bias in its outer ranges, one that it then sans when it gets closer and exposes said bias... But, that actually helps it do better than other guidance when the situation is like Dec 2005 set up. The problem is ...it's always on, even when the situations are softer.

That's one small lot for JAN(uary), one giant start for the season.

Fundamentally handling the vort differently this run....keeping it strong into N Ohio....it's gonna be a warm/zonked run.

Not gonna happen cause it went poof. Bluewave is right. We either get cutters/coastal huggers like Tues, or when the actual cold is in place like this weekend, suppressed tracks. The atmosphere in the 2020s is finding every way to not track a low up the benchmark when there's cold air around in the east. It's like a lesson in how to not get snow

The Great Bay being some 10 miles inland is an important factor that I think only the locals can fully appreciate.

Cold day on tap here at WXW2. Man cold with the wind chill around 10°. Could see -20 WC later this week.

Forum moderators may still redefine the headlining thresholds. Have heard from one. I do not hide behind reiterating the obvious variabilities and I don't want to be too wordy.. come to bat...see the ball and give it my best swing at an encompassing useful set of info and go from there. No one should complain tomorrow if there are any morning delays. The complaints can be profuse if its overkill and I'll stomach the wrong headline. All the NWS and non-NWS tools that I know ion were balanced applied. We on the forum gave useful days lead time and information on how to consider a disruptive event even if for only a few hours whether air or sfc travel. mPing event coming to NYC I think despite the warmer cycles. NYC probably no go on measurable sleet snow due to temps at sunrise near 36. CoCoRaHs obs Wed am as well as posters and ASOS/AWOS will answer. For now... edge snow snow-sleet-ice just nw of I95.

HRRR is likely overdone. N ORH county jack with the max axis to the NH/MA border by Ray is my call.

Oh good for you!

I know several people who live in that area and they would agree with your post..

NAM will probably nuke closer to the cape if it did that at 6z.

TBH.... I don't expect the roads to be snowy during the daytime on Tuesday around the Hartford area, but once the sun goes down, I think that will change.

Yeah that is going to be a factor with a marginal airmass on the cp

It’s also going to be cold tonight in those spots that get snow. Should have no issue sticking if you’re near 32 or below. Hell 33F aggies will have no issue sticking.