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Pretty significant shift east on 18z spaghetti plots...no?

Above, you will find October scoring estimates to be finalized by November 1st, as well as the updated annual scoring with some adjustments yet to come for October. In general the scoring for October was over a rather narrow range and ranks only changed at the bottom of the table. RodneyS has the highest score for the month at current estimates and while we are both a long way back of the leaders, RodneyS and I are locked in a close battle for the extreme forecast award with Scotty Lightning not far behind us. Normal is also doing better than most of the forecasters at hitting extreme (cold) forecasts but overall in points, Normal is now close to Persistence and behind all forecasters (after pro-rating scores for those without a full set of forecasts). Our consensus is basically tied with Tom at the top of the scoring table (one point currently separates them). Below, please post your November forecasts ... ...

Yeah, We just don't know right now, No one does.

Roughly 23" (595mm) Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

This thing is still 5 plus days out…solutions still TBD.

Bad news for jamaica if euro is right. That is like feet of rain.

It kept just turning it into Hispaniola. I think it actually thought it was a well developed and coupled circulation so it assumed it would go with the steering flow? It was literally the only model showing it.

Eh, I'm not sold on that yet. If we get a cold December then I think you're on to something, but we seem to have this post Thanksgiving / early December torch every year the resets things.

Why what was it showing…how did it embarrass itself?

With this post you just riled up ineedsnow past the point of no return, and he's going to be torturing you with buck tooth snow emojis from this day forward.

Due for it?! I got down to -2.4 degrees last year in Northern VA! We had some brutally cold stretches last year (with absolutely ZERO precip.) Actually, wasn't that most of last winter? lol

Hit 32.0 exactly this morning for the first time... today has this raw winter post-FROPA kinda look to it, with gusty winds and the lower sun angle (and shorter days) casting plenty of cloud shadows and making them seem darker in the process. Definitely one of those afternoons where you can tell it'll be cold tonight! Freeze warning for all of Loudoun.. I'm usually about 3-5 degrees cooler than forecast so we'll see.

Back in the snow personally.

Records: Highs: EWR: 83 (2001) NYC: 79 (2001) LGA: 80 (2001) JFK: 74 (2017) Lows: EWR: 28 (1969) NYC: 31 (1969) LGA: 30 (1969) JFK: 32 (1969) Historical: 1785 - A four day rain swelled the Merrimack River in New Hampshire and Massachusetts to the greatest height of record causing extensive damage to bridges and mills. (David Ludlum) 1878 - A hurricane produced widespread damage across North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. At Philadelphia PA, the hurricane was the worst of record. (David Ludlum) 1878: The Gale of 1878 was an intense Category 2 hurricane that was active between October 18 and October 25. It caused extensive damage from Cuba to New England. Believed to be the strongest storm to hit the Washington - Baltimore region since hurricane records began in 1851. 1937 - A snow squall in Buffalo NY tied up traffic in six inches of slush. (David Ludlum) 1947 - The Bar Harbor holocaust occurred in Maine when forest fires consumed homes and a medical research institute. The fires claimed 17 lives, and caused thirty million dollars damage. (David Ludlum) 1951 - Sacramento, CA, reported a barometric pressure of 29.42 inches, to establish a record for October. (The Weather Channel) 1969 - Unseasonably cold air gripped the northeastern U.S. Lows of 10 degrees at Concord, NH, and 6 degrees at Albany NY established October records. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Snow fell across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin overnight, with five inches reported at Poplar Lake MN and Gunflint Trail MN. Thunderstorm rains caused flash flooding in south central Arizona, with street flooding reported around Las Vegas NV. Strong northwesterly winds gusting to 50 mph downed some trees and power lines in western Pennsylvania and the northern panhandle of West Virginia. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Strong winds circulating around a deep low pressure centered produced snow squalls in the Great Lakes Region, with six inches reported at Ironwood MI. Wind gusts to 80 mph were reported at State College PA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - A storm in the western U.S. produced up to three feet of snow in the mountains around Lake Tahoe, with 21 inches reported at Donner Summit. Thunderstorms in northern California produced 3.36 inches of rain at Redding to establish a 24 hour record for October, and bring their rainfall total for the month to a record 5.11 inches. Chiefly "Indian Summer" type weather prevailed across the rest of the nation. Fifteen cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date as readings soared into the 70s and 80s. Record highs included 74 degrees at International Falls MN, and 86 degrees at Yankton SD. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2005 - Hurricane Wilma reached the U.S. coastline near Everglades City in Florida with maximum sustained winds near 120 mph. The hurricane accelerated across south Florida and the Miami/Fort Lauderdale area, exiting the coast later the same day. There were 10 fatalities in Florida, and nearly 6 million people lost power, the most widespread power outage in Florida history. Preliminary estimates of insured losses in Florida were over $6 billion, while uninsured losses were over $12 billion.

61 / 38 breezy at times today. More clouds than before. Looks like a nice fall weekend.

Just beginning to look at modeling again as tis the season but Novie looks to start out cold so i can see some snow potential possibly for the elevated interior.

we pray for cane and snow!

No, referring to snow.

Whoa, didn't see that coming given how stubborn Harbaugh is. I guess even he can see how undeniably awful Rush is at running this offense.

Define interior violence... Vermont flood again? Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

If we could find a way to replicate the cooler high temperature patterns that we have been getting in May recently at other times of the year, then we would be onto something. Islip , NYPeriod of record: 1963-09-05 through 2025-10-23DateLowest maximum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record 5/1 49 in 2016 52 in 1978 53 in 2019 5/2 51 in 1995 53 in 1988 53 in 1975 5/3 49 in 1985 53 in 2016 53 in 1986 5/4 47 in 1987 51 in 2016 54 in 1978+ 5/5 44 in 1978 46 in 1987 53 in 2016 5/6 50 in 1978 52 in 2016 52 in 1967 5/7 44 in 1967 50 in 2022 52 in 1965 5/8 53 in 1971 54 in 1992 54 in 1989+ 5/9 49 in 2020 49 in 1972 50 in 1977 5/10 52 in 1989 54 in 2024 55 in 1995+ 5/11 54 in 1998 54 in 1989 55 in 1995+ 5/12 48 in 2010 51 in 2008 55 in 1966 5/13 51 in 2019 51 in 2017 51 in 2002 5/14 52 in 2019 57 in 2006 57 in 1984+ 5/15 53 in 1978 55 in 1973 56 in 1967 5/16 53 in 1984 53 in 1978 54 in 1996 5/17 56 in 1978 57 in 1994 58 in 1966 5/18 49 in 2007 53 in 2002 56 in 1968 5/19 51 in 1976 53 in 1994 55 in 1993 5/20 51 in 2000 54 in 2005 55 in 2008+ 5/21 49 in 1990 54 in 2000 56 in 2025 5/22 53 in 2025 54 in 2003 57 in 2000 5/23 54 in 2003 54 in 1982 57 in 1973 5/24 56 in 1982 57 in 2003 57 in 1969 5/25 49 in 1967 51 in 2013 51 in 2005 5/26 52 in 1967 53 in 2003 57 in 1973 5/27 56 in 1974 57 in 1973 58 in 1983+ 5/28 60 in 2014 60 in 2009 60 in 1996+ 5/29 51 in 2021 58 in 2017 60 in 1996+ 5/30 52 in 2021 60 in 2017 61 in 1965 5/31 55 in 1984 61 in 1967 63 in 1992

Amen. Steel hulls. You can hear the tearing sound of your gonads popping out of your groin lifting one of those.

Euro also close to interior violence later in the run.

wow, looks like the MLC jumped to the LLC, that was fast. We may be off to the races now, next recon will probably find a much different storm.