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Full-blown, massive cave.

That is climo for these sort of setups I think

For sure… but if you are going on camera for the news, you’re probably putting a few rain drops on the extended map. Maybe it turns out to be nice weather instead, but one could make a generalized forecast right now that some rainfall is likely happening along the east coast.

ya that's why I included other areas just not sure yet but looking more likely

its been trending north and east.. we will see though

You do realize most of this a week out will end up west of us right ?

How often have we seen things "cave" in this range only for there to be a trend back in the opposite direction inside D4-5? This very well could happen, we've seen it before this time of year, but this is an anomalous evolution with more than one feature. Any subtle difference in evolution could have a vast difference on sensible weather.

GEFS starting to cave.. someone is going to get a crap load of rain.. might be PA NY NJ or SNE

Not too shabby here! at least the flow is southerly or Southeasterly and not a wheel o'reah offshore

Let's not count our chickens before they shit. We're still in the range where there is a tendency for models to overstate some of these features.

just keeps going.. out to day 10 and still on and off showers

There hasn’t been much major severe to write home about in this part of Central PA for what seems like the last several years but this year has definitely been off to a wild start. Prior to yesterday there was a widespread severe event on 3/16 that really impacted some of the same areas with a few NWS confirmed tornadoes and lots of straight line wind damage in the I-80 corridor as well as the 99 corridor too. That one really hit Bellefonte and surrounding hard. Last nights line really hit a bit further south.. getting Cambria/Blair/southern Centre/Huntingdon coming in from western PA where it had its largest impacts in and around Pittsburgh. Carrolltown in Cambria County had the most notable damage report, with a cell phone tower being destroyed by the winds. Something you don’t see often outside hurricanes or maybe direct hits from tornadoes. The NWS reportedly surveyed this today and reported that to be straight line wind damage of 110-120mph winds. https://www.wtaj.com/weather/nws-survey-confirms-straight-line-wind-damage-in-cambria-county/ There was other widespread issues around here and tens of thousands of folks without power. I was out here for a couple hours and my parents up the road didn’t get theirs back until earlier today. No damage here at home fortunately.

Ok, what’s the excuse now? You’ve got every model showing a multi-day wet period. For the record I’m not saying 3-5” of rain is falling but there seems to be a high probability of a multi-day period of clouds and occasional water.

Eventually migrates east. What a disaster that model is.

Power is back on

Bc it’s a shit model lately. What a joke and a cave

Yeah that’s not even close to 12z’s look. Sort of spares SE MA but that’s just pumping moisture on SE flow for days.

eastern areas not so bad yet though... western areas

The problem with decadal cycles is that they are in such a short timeframe that you can say "Whatever X is, has to do with Y", and there's not enough data to disprove this.. I bet if the PDO was running 25 years positive, that would definitely be linked to climate change, no doubt. And that one you can probably make a stronger case for too. I don't think things like the NAO/AO/PDO are obsolete in this "new climate". For everytime the -NAO has linked up with a SE ridge, there are 3-4x more examples of warmer days happening when the NAO is positive.. Jan 26, 2024 it hit 80* in DC with the strongest +NAO for that timeframe, maybe on record (-300dm for a 5-day surrounding period). These fluctuations are still strong and constant in an overall warmer climate. I'm not going to make everything happening about a 2c global skew. Anyway, just an example: In the older climate: -NAO -0.5 correlation with temperature +NAO +0.5 correlation with temperature New climate: -NAO -0.2 correlation with temperature +NAO +0.8 correlation with temperature It's the same thing! 1.0 = 1.0. NAO remains just as impactful.

nice fire hose from that south at hr 141

probably be back to nothing at 0z

Man that model is broken again.

we flood!

WB 18Z GFS rain totals through day 7.

yup now will @Damage In Tolland