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  2. Herb@MAWS
    Overcast with noon sprinkles in Columbia, 71°.
  3. Brian D
    Halloween looks good for some, but late Oct looking unsettled.
  4. GaWx
    Do you have this map for other states in the SE? TIA
  5. Brian D
    Columbus Day looks decent with inclement wx.
  6. Brian D
    Wife Appreciation Day just before the Fall Equinox looks unsettled with some energy moving through the sub. Ok husbands, you know what to do today (I hope).
  7. ineedsnow
    Reggie might be fun though
  8. ineedsnow
    Midwest im guessing.. nothing seems interesting here
  9. GaWx
    Thanks, Chris -Long range model winter forecasts have, indeed, tended to be too cold on average based on my recollection although the Euro has missed on both sides. So, I wouldn’t be shocked if 25-6 also comes in warmer than today’s forecast, but that remains to be seen. -But keep in mind that you essentially are showing a super Nino sample size of just one (2015-6 done in August) since 2023-4 wasn’t a true super (RONI peaked at only +1.49). ONI had ~0.5C excess due to very warm surrounding tropical waters from GW inflating the ONI. -Also, other super Ninos had a fairly similar temp. pattern to what the NMME shows overall.
  10. mitchnick
    Nobody is forcing anyone to consider any model. But if someone posts a model's SSTA forecast, what's so wrong or unusual about posting it's resulting weather forecast. It's done all the time.
  11. mitchnick
    The weather is what counts, and I'm not seeing anything different than previous extremes being forecasted by the same models forecasting your "global climate disruption." In fact, there's yet to be an agreement on the resulting weather.
  12. olafminesaw
  13. forkyfork
    we're facing the biggest global climate disruption of our lives
  14. LakePaste25
    Why would I even look at what models are showing next winter with more than a grain of salt when it’s only June? I am focused on how this is developing and summer analogs. I will check on that in October.
  15. bluewave
    Those seasonal model 2m temperatures typically run way too cool especially with super El Ninos like we saw in 2023-2024 and 2015-2016. This has been the case with all the seasonal models. Even the forecasts issued in November were still too cool NMME DJF 2023-2024 long range forecast issued August 2023 Verification DJF 2015-2016 long range forecast issued August 2015 Verification
  16. mitchnick
    I said weather in the east.
  17. mitchnick
    So you can post verbatim model conditions if they suggest a furnace but not if the same model suggests conditions otherwise?
  18. GaWx
    -Unlike Cansips, these NMME maps look typical/more believable for a strong Nino. -The strong Nino very typical wetness (starting as early as Oct on this run but I usually bank on the start in Nov) gives a lot of hope that the bad but somewhat improved drought in the SE will be mainly history by mid to late winter. - These maps are consistent with the El Niño winters that had one major to possibly historic SE US snowstorm like has occurred in many El Niños.
  19. forkyfork
    so post about it in your local subforum
  20. mitchnick
    Conditions on the earth a couple thousand+ miles from mby are meaningless to me except how they effect weather imby.
  21. LakePaste25
    Yeah but this shiny looking map says I’m going to have near normal temps 6 months from now in december in a record breaking super nino
  22. NEG NAO
    Should be an interesting week of weather around here starting with cool and dry and the second half Hot Steamy with Severe Storms...
  23. 2wheelin
    What's causing this annoying cloud band slicing PA in half today (Monday)?
  24. forkyfork
    strongest nino in history and we're still on the backyard snow talk
  25. Cyclone-68
    Looks like Canada got their wildfires out of the way for this year?
  26. mayjawintastawm
    Front Range north of COS is in a Slight Risk for this afternoon, mostly for hail with 1" hail east of I-25. Time to drag the pots under the patio roof...
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