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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yes, I have always been with you on that. Interesting you note the weak signal nationally because some of the seasonal guidance has been hinting that December maybe colder than January and February in the NE. -
Looks that way
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Good question...I guess the year in the aggregate? -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
raindancewx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The PDO tends to decay toward whatever 1.2 is in October, so I do expect it reverse toward neutral fairly rapidly in the coming weeks. But I never really expected it to sustain positive, and that still looks correct. PDO is a pretty weak signal in December nationally. The lightest blue/green is 0.1 r, not r-squared. But PDO is a bigger deal in Oct-Nov and Jan-Feb. The only important tendency with a -PDO December is Western Canada will be cold (probably not flooded with Pacific air). -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I’ll check. But first tell me this: do you mean around the current time (say, the same day (Sep 28th) or late Sept through Oct) or do you mean also later? -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
raindancewx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
We're up to 3.8 inches of rain as of a minute ago for the month. Should pass September 2013 (3.97") to become the wettest month for Albuquerque since July 1930 in the next two hours. Above 4.45" (July 1930), its easily the wettest month in over 100 years. Real shot at passing July 1930 too with ~36 hours of rain/month left as Polo makes landfall two. Sept rain/temp patterns nationally don't really reflect correlations to El Nino or the PDO, although PDO is irrelevant for US temps in Sept. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I know that.....I mean the entire list of cold arctic years. -
Maybe putting an end to what has already been a very tame yellow jacket season in these parts. Relative to normal at least.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
2011 was moderate La Niña while 2000 was weak La Niña. Also, both were coming off of a prior year’s Niña. -
Strong Nor'Easter/Hybrid Storm Late September 2026
Stormlover74 replied to Rjay's topic in New York City Metro
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First wide spread multi-regional frost/freeze potential 6th-7th?
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I would not expect that this year....1997 was low, ascending solar with a strong easterly QBO...very odd timing for a super-El Nino. This year fits the bill with W QBO and descending solar. Good luck with early blocking. 1997 is a very poor polar analog...our chances will come later this year.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
2004 was a weak El Nino...any other warm ENSO years on that list? -
Meh. It's just sitting and spinning and hasn't moved out so we're not 'behind' it yet.
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Its mainly cloudy..another bust
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Been having some color here by me for 2 weeks now. Mainly younger trees.
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yep - sure we haven't had as many extremes as the middle of the country (although early July was pretty insane here), it's just... warm. Yeah, we have below normal periods still (and hopefully one happens in tandem with a coastal storm later in the season!). But the warmth is mostly unabated.
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light rain
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Recent Josh update on Polo on a farm he was staying at on Baja: includes a nice video of the peak as well as aftermath, which shows that people/farm animals weren’t injured despite significant damage to the farm. The main house he was staying in handled it well though:
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October Comes Early: Late September Multi-Hazard Hybrid Storm
Baroclinic Zone replied to WxWatcher007's topic in New England
Off and on drizzle all AM -
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Sun was forecasted, but as usual a busted forecast. Has happened all year.
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