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Euro never liked this storm.

No. It's another solution on the table.

Euro AI did drop qpf a bit. Per NE forum it seems to be average of 18z and 12z. CPK went from 1.3 to 1.1 so nothing too drastic.

hang on, that alberta vort is a bit closer than 18z. my thinking is that maybe we're risking a more OTS solution (bc it acts as a kicker) for a phase with that vort? maybe? idk.

so back to a non event for the Euro

Euro's gonna be east of 18z

Euro skynet sticking with SECS west MECS east of the river DT to a T

It's been back and forth a lot with this. But of course a further east track is definitely possible

Euro slower with the negative tilt this run.

I'll pass but thanks though. It's not as good as the gfs

less neg tilt at hour 42

noise

I hate to say it but it might be on to something, and I hate AI

As I said, post less

AI is basically back at 12z for totals, to put it in perspective.

Trough broader, and the euro is slightly east at 39

Remember folks on Accu forums back in the day talking about this guy - didnt know who he was then - still follow his page now , but yeah it is difficult to tolerate Dave...

00z EURO-AI taking a minor step back. Split the difference between the 18z and 12z.

i was going to say the same thing. Is the AI even a high res model?

Trough less consolidated, by an asshair amount

One of the main reasons I'm fascinated with weather is how winter storms can hamper day to day things. Can't do anything about it so might as well enjoy it!

970mb low at 40/70......

It is. And it’s something we need to watch. AI EC may not get QPF distribution correct but it’s very solid up top. GFS has been leading the way and has been ROCK steady so it’s nothing to freak out over (4-6+ is still solid in late feb if AI played out) but we def can’t just toss. Edit — to CAPEs point though, physics based models for complex setups under 48 hours should be our focus

Confluence exiting quicker, hour 26

Quite a temp gradient going on this month. Far western part of the sub is near record warm while the far east is below average. Chicago/ORD is running a +6.5 temp departure thus far, not quite record warm, but still very mild.