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Always a chance..except it’s like 1%. Or Maybe .5% there. Enjoy the milder weather when it comes Ant…it’s not all bad.

Me thinks there's going to be a lot of active weather in the coming months.

As a weather geek I thought yesterday was kind of neat - my temp was in the mid 50s at 11am and I still managed a high of 83. I was able to watch the temp steadily rise on the station which doesn't happen often.

Still have some patches in my yard (not including today's minor amounts).

91-92 was probably the 2nd strongest that was basin-wide or more west-based. RONI was +2.3 for 91-92.

The super Ninos over the last 50+ years have all been east-based/East Pacific (1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98), with the exception of 2015-16, which was basin-wide. There are no Modoki super El Niños

23-24 didn't have super negative anomalies in the Pacific like other Strong Nino's, but ENSO mainly effects the North Pacific High 23-24 cold season did have a NPH negative anomaly, which is El Nino. I see why RONI was +1.5, as the total N. Pacific pattern wasn't very influenced by ENSO seemingly

Any chance of April snow?

Defintely with the sun angle

Brian, I’ll be sure to weenie your posts a little more often now too.

Yes, which is The Best way to remember things…by association.

Exactly. It's because the stronger ones tend to be significantly more east-based.

This.

Ya…that isn’t to promising. But we can hope.

that was snark point... it takes a super dope phat bad ass nino to actually couple.

LOL!

I think it may take a super event to finally, at long last, completely flip and reshuffle the PAC. After the winter we just had, if we have to throw away one winter to an east-based, super El Niño and go back to the PAC of the early-mid 2000’s, I don’t think the people who love winter would be complaining

Now that we officially moved to RONI, the funniest possible outcome is a Nino that smashes through 2.0 on RONI anyways. Still early but hard not to like all of the off-center WWBs pumping warm water volume towards the equator. It's got the potential, especially given how early it got started.

I mean this winter was a really cold one in the east. It would be hard to duplicate it.

33° and misty after .97 kinda sux. Better than adding to the drought I guess.

You need to understand why the index is reading what it does, and what it is trying to portray, just like any other index. 1972-1973 is actually a good comp given the -PDO. The only reason the RONi lagged the ONI in 2023 is because there were competing influences that actually made it warmer across the eastern US. "Weaker" is not necessarily "colder".

Still looking dry the next 10 days at least.

For me, notable weather events help to trigger memories of other things, as well as the storms themselves. Finished with 6.7" and 0.65" LE, moist but not sloppy.

We pray. But I want to see it inside d5 again before I believe it. Seeing BN heights in New Foundland is giving me PTSD.