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What does 'RONI will be moderate', mean. RONI is inherently an ONI minus a spatial limitation because the ENSO band is being increasingly isolated by the HC expansion, but also just because the oceanic basins are blazin' away anyway - it's really all fucked up. So a "moderate" RONI implies a decent amount of muting effect? I guess. If we really understand what that means both conceptually and wrt the practical mechanics, the ENSO scalar numbers may rise and fall below a wider and wider gap of threshold/boundary. In other (hypothetical example range) words, we'd going need to observe an ENSO sigma to be > +1.5, or < -1.5, to really correlate to the general circulation modes of the mid latitude. My own present intuitive feel for this ( ...seeing as that's worth so much shit, lol ) is that we are not going to see an ENSO breach whatever the lower bound is. That said, the non-warm ENSO is a kind of false La Nina, where the winds behave like a cold phase but it's not really in that mode - good luck parsing out how much in either case. Is CC so much fun

33.1°F yesterday, 33.6°F this morning for lows with back to back frost.

it will probably depend where the center of the IPWP ultimately ends up(east is more poleward ridging, west would be more towards an Aleutian ridge) as well as how strong the Nina gets/how much it develops. So far the cold pool in the subsurface has been surfacing with easterlies which is leading to the Nina getting pretty established, but it is still ep in origin. the IPWP has great backing from the subsurface, all the way to the dateline too, so that would likely put a cap on its development closer to the dateline

Haven't been below 55 here.

Looks like the cold front for the middle of next week is trending drier (good). Need to get some field work completed in western Howard County next week. Wouldn't mind a bit of rain, but a total washout would be no bueno.

Short answer. He mentioned several times we need a climate changing type of volcano for NYC to see 50" of snow again in a season. No need to really bring this up to him ever again after that statement.

it's really because we live near the ocean so this isn't a surprise. MN has two thousand miles of land south of it lol.

Members 13.8k Location:NYC-NJ Posted 2 hours ago Records: Highs: EWR: 85 (2023) NYC: 87 (1919) LGA: 85 (2000) JFK: 84 (2002) Lows: EWR: 37 (1945) NYC: 38 (1974) LGA: 40 (1974) JFK: 40 (2003) wow some amazing extremes right here. 40 degrees on this date in 2003 at JFK is absolutely frigid lol.

And the year before Sandy we had a foot of snow on the same weekend.

Good anything below 70 is too chilly for me before November.

Yes it's very suburban, moreso than Western Nassau (on the south shore anyway.)

Regarding major impacts to crops, it’s actually been closer to the opposite with larger crops in many areas, including the US, due to: -longer growing seasons due to GW -ability to have decent crops further N due to GW -increased CO2 itself, due to “fertilization effect”, leads to larger crops I’ve posted about this earlier ITT. So, who’s to say that CC will ever lead to shortages of food? It may continue to be a net positive for that for all anyone knows. However, this isn’t consistent with the message about CC being all bad. Thus, it’s naturally going to be deemphasized so as to avoid a mixed message. Make no mistake that CC has its very bad impacts like sea level rise, more flash flooding events, increased frequency of intense hurricanes, increased AC costs, and increased heat related deaths. But there are some good sides, too, like larger avg crop sizes, decreased heating costs, and decreased cold related deaths.

I was happy to see yesterday the one station on my street that went out like 10 days ago popped back online. This morning all 3 stations on my street were 39.2. It is rare that we all line up exactly.

I really hate this cold weather, I'm glad it's going away, it can come back in November.

Nothing below 90 degrees can be considered summer. It was a warm first part of fall, that's all. Nothing I haven't seen before multiple times.

I'm leaning towards minor changes around the 20th-ish

same low temp here this morning as yesterday, 35.2....no frost though, we ended up with dense fog which seemed to have helped. The frost was enough to put an end to the massive amounts of pumpkins and gourds I have growing though, raspberries survived

It’s rare in the lower elevations and about a once-every-five-year occurrence in the mountains. Belgrade’s first snowfall is typically November 30 (earliest: October 7, 1897: Trace).

FWIW…

Eastern queens is suburban and has lots of parks and wooded areas. (Alley pond park, Cunningham Park) so it’s not a surprise

Low of 45 last two mornings. Glorious out

I've tended to shy away from ONI alone and incorporate for SOI/MEI/RONI/ENS-ONI but with that I am a bit uncertain as to how much we really develop into La Nina but even with a Nina, I am unsure how "Nina like" the atmosphere will truly be. Thanks for linking that paper, gave a quick breeze through but need to read it in full later. I certainly could see periods where MJO activity is favorable or more favorable for us, but the question is, how favorable? If/when we get MJO activity into the favorable phases, how strong will the MJO signal be and how much weight will it have? But I really want to see how the hemisphere evolves through the remainder of this month and first half of November.

Interesting. It was relatively cool up here with BDL only +.9. Needed AN the last 8 days of the month just to get there.

Low of 41.1 here in EH

how common is the balkan snowstorm that's happening the past few days?