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I meant ICON.

Yeah ICON is pretty wild. That's an impressive warm core system and it takes forever to occlude

AIGFS ain’t playing ball yet. Further east then 6z if anything.

as of today - most of the significant impact from the coastal LP will be further east BUT this could still change - stay tuned !

Probably would be looking at some serious coastal flooding across eastern MA and particularly the Cape and along the north facing shore of Long Island

12z ICON also kind of does that

Walt, it's good to hear from you. I hope all is well. As you know, the signal for something developing off the coast has been there for a few days now, and as we get closer in time I am becoming a touch more bullish. I think the odds are low that we see an officially designated subtropical storm, but I am intrigued by some of the guidance signals between the Google DeepMind, EPS, and Euro/GFS AI. This is a highly uncommon thing for us up in the Mid-Atlantic and New England to see in September, even if it remains non-tropical. Currently I think the impacts are around what you describe. If the Euro suite is to be believed, we would see strong winds, prolonged easterly fetch causing significant coastal flooding, especially if the storm is still potent around astronomical high tides later in the week, and potentially significant rainfall. I'll note that part of southern Connecticut has been inundated recently with rainfall and flash flooding, and although this rain would likely last over days, if it is potent with a tropical tap banding into the state could cause serious issues. This is one to watch IMO. Regardless of official designation.

0.15" as of early this morning. A shower yesterday and one overnight.

Ukie slings this towards the Cape. Just dumbells in.

Records: Highs: EWR: 90 (1940) NYC: 95 (1895) LGA: 89 (1940) JFK: 85 (2016) Lows: EWR: 39 (1956) NYC: 40 (1871) LGA" 43 (1956) JFK: 42 (1962) Historical: 1894 - A heavy chicken house, sixteen by sixteen feet in area, was picked up by a tornado and wedged between two trees. The hens were found the next day sitting on their eggs in the chicken house, with no windows broken, as though nothing had happened. (The Weather Channel) 1894: A late season severe weather outbreak occurred across northwest Iowa, south central Minnesota and southwestern Wisconsin during the late evening hours. Several communities were impacted by this outbreak with an estimated 55 to 65 deaths, and in additional 300 injuries. The strongest tornado was an estimated F5, which tore through the counties of Kossuth, Hancock, Winnebago in Iowa, and Faribault in Minnesota. 1924 - A couple of tornadoes, one rated F4 and the other F5, tore paths of devastation through Eau Claire, Clark, and Taylor Counties in Wisconsin. The death toll was 18 and 50 people were injured. 1924: A couple of tornadoes, one rated F4 and the other F5, tore paths of devastation through Eau Claire, Clark, and Taylor Counties in Wisconsin. The death toll was 18 and 50 people were injured. 1938 - A great hurricane smashed into Long Island and bisected New England causing a massive forest blowdown and widespread flooding. Winds gusted to 186 mph at Blue Hill MA, and a storm surge of nearly thirty feet caused extensive flooding along the coast of Rhode Island. The hurricane killed 600 persons and caused 500 million dollars damage. The hurricane, which lasted twelve days, destroyed 275 million trees. Hardest hit were Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Long Island NY. The ""Long Island Express"" produced gargantuan waves with its 150 mph winds, waves which smashed against the New England shore with such force that earthquake-recording machines on the Pacific coast clearly showed the shock of each wave. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1938: On this day, one of the most destructive and powerful hurricanes in recorded history struck Long Island and Southern New England. This Category 3 Hurricane was traveling at 47 mph when it made landfall near Bellport, New York. This storm caused at least 600 deaths and left approximately 63,000 homeless. 1948: A hurricane struck near Everglades City, then moved northeast through Florida to emerge into the Atlantic near Jupiter. The lowest barometric pressure was 963 millibars or 28.44 inches of mercury, and top winds were 122 mph. Three people were killed. A tornado, spawned by this hurricane, unroofed a small farmhouse and destroyed another near Homestead. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1950: A severe hailstorm hit Logansport, IN and created the worst destruction seen there up to that time. The hail two inches in diameter caused a million dollars in damage. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1954 - The temperature at Deeth, NV, soared from a morning low of 12 degrees to a high of 87 degrees, a record daily warm-up for the state. (The Weather Channel) 1962: Zipper fasteners on a schoolboy’s jacket and trousers were fused by a lightning strike in McCammon, ID. He did suffer severe burns. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) 1969: Heavy rain in southwest Oklahoma through the 22nd, caused extensive flooding and damage to pasture and crop land. About 1,500 cattle were trapped by the high water, and many of them drowned. More than 10 bridges were washed out, and fences were removed by the floodwaters. Official rainfall measurements exceeded six inches in some locations, and an unofficial report of 11 inches in 11 hours was received from Hollister. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1987 - Tropical Storm Emily, which formed in the Carribean the previous afternoon, caused considerable damage to the banana industry of Saint Vincent in the Windward Islands. Unseasonably hot weather continued in Florida and the western U.S. Redding CA and Red Bluff CA, with record highs of 108 degrees, tied for honors as the hot spot in the nation. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thunderstorms produced high winds and locally heavy rain in the southwestern U.S. One thunderstorm in west Texas produced wind gusts to 86 mph at Dell City completely destroying an airport hangar. A Cessna 150 aircraft housed within the hangar was flipped over and snapped in two. Thunderstorms produced large hail in east central Utah, while snow blanketed some of the higher elevations of the state. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Hurricane Hugo slammed into the South Carolina coast about 11 PM, making landfall near Sullivans Island. Hurricane Hugo was directly responsible for thirteen deaths, and indirectly responsible for twenty-two others. A total of 420 persons were injured in the hurricane, and damage was estimated at eight billion dollars, including two billion dollars damage to crops. Sustained winds reached 85 mph at Folly Beach SC, with wind gusts as high was 138 mph. Wind gusts reached 98 mph at Charleston, and 109 mph at Shaw AFB. The biggest storm surge occurred in the McClellanville and Bulls Bay area of Charleston County, with a storm surge of 20.2 feet reported at Seewee Bay. Shrimp boats were found one half mile inland at McClellanville. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1995: The earliest snow on record fell across southwest Kansas with most areas reporting 2 to 3 inches with isolated amounts up to 6 inches. This was the earliest snowfall ever recorded at the Dodge City Airport. This was also the only time there was measurable snowfall for the month of September. A total of 1.3 inches fell at the Dodge City Airport. Rochester, MN saw a trace of snow, their earliest such occurrence on record. Along with the snow, many areas reported record low temperatures. Miles City, MT fell to 19°, their coldest September temperature on record. Other daily record lows included: Valentine, MT: 11°, Chinook, MT: 13°, Chester, MT: 15°, Glasgow, MT: 15°-Tied, Boulder, MT: 16°, Havre, MT: 18°, Williston, ND: 18°, Bozeman, MT: 19°, Lewistown, MT: 19°, Livingston, MT: 19°, Helena, MT: 20°, Great Falls, MT: 20°, Cut Bank, MT: 20 °F. (Ref. Many Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link) 1998: Nine years after Hurricane Hugo struck Charleston, SC, the city was inundated with 10 inches of rainfall in less than 8 hours causing major flooding. A weakened Hurricane Georges swirled through the islands of the northeastern Caribbean with winds of 115 mph. The storm had earlier been a very strong category 4 hurricane. The eye of the hurricane passed within two miles of St. Croix and crossed the entire island of Puerto Rico from east to west. Winds were estimated at 115 mph and up to 20 inches of rain fell. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 2002: The worst tornadoes to strike Indiana in 12 years raked an area from the southwestern corner of the state to Indianapolis. At least 5 tornadoes were confirmed by the National Weather Service. Excellent warnings resulted in very low numbers of injuries and no fatalities. Most communities had at least 20 minutes lead time before the twisters struck. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2005: Gulf of Mexico: After raking the Florida Keys on the 20th, Hurricane Rita strengthens into a Category Five storm on the Saffir-Simpson over the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico. By 11 PM EDT, the central pressure drops to 897 mb or 26.49 inches of mercury the third-lowest pressure on record in the Atlantic with maximum sustained winds of 175 mph. (Ref. WxDoctor)

67 / 56 mostly cloudy N/ENE flow pushing low level clouds back west while there is/was some clearing pushing west. Day 2 of a very unsettled period of mainly cloudy , onshore and potentially wet especially Fri - Sun with the cut off trough and cut off ULL spinning a storm 9/25 - 9/28. Beyond there overall warmer 9/39 -10/5.

Looks like a pretty dry week now. Got a good soaking yesterday though. Big question mark on any coastal threat

Could be today, could be next year. We just don’t know..

Lets see if 12z can make this "The Perfect Stein."

Breezy. Top gust so far recorded as 30mph.

All this needs is a cool headline name. Can’t use Perfect Storm so maybe “The great but not necessarily perfect, gale of ‘26?

Rainfall event total here last two days: .44". Humidity dropped off after midnight and this morning was breezy and coolish.

With Fay falling just short we're back on track to keep the record going for latest developing hurricane. Certainly within the realm of possibility now that we make it through September with no hurricanes for the season to date.

Walt! So good to hear from you. We miss you over on the NYC Metro forum. Hope all well with you. My opinion. Minor to moderate coastal flooding especially LI Sound and Jersey beaches and SNE coast. Any winds of note confined to more eastern sections NJ coast out to eastern LI and SNE especially. Same with rainfall more coastal than inland. This is based on the modeling now. Any ticks west this week and interior sections could be more affected by winds and rain. Something interesting to watch.

You’ll be eating those words.

weeks and weeks