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  2. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  3. Agree John... It's not something that can be easily incorporated into the winter forecast, but given climate trends and an increasing frequency of excessive precipitation events, it certainly deserves a bolded footnote!
  4. A more negative NAO when winter progresses. Due to the stratosphere?
  5. Not to that degree, no...that is why I am wondering if adds more Modoki influence versus MC influence relative to the east-based-super composite.
  6. Correct it's not the amount of acorns. It's the size of the squirrels that dictate snowfall.
  7. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  8. 0.66" here* *Asked the wife to check/empty the gauge for me when she went out for the chicks. When I later asked her for the total she went blank. And 0.66" was the best she could guess. Unfortunately it's double any nearby station. I've seen that happen, legitimately, but looking at the radar overnight, it doesn't really support that.
  9. Latest 10 day CFSv2 ens mean for RONI shows the downward trend continuing: note for SON through NDJ how much lower are the blue lines (the most recent 8 members) vs the red lines (the earliest 8 members):
  10. This has been our pattern since March. Ridge out West builds east from time to time. With the warm ups being stronger than the cool downs which followed.
  11. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  12. Are there temp and snowfall maps for 82-83/97-98? Well, I know the temp maps are out there.
  13. The just released WCS daily PDO for yesterday was up to -0.58! They haven’t been this high since way back in late June. It has risen ~1.07 over just the last 10 days. It had dipped to as low as -2.19 on Aug 1st. In case anyone is wondering, it hasn’t been red since it went barely positive on ~6 dates between 3/31/25 and 4/19/25 (highest was ~+0.08 on 4/5/25). One can also see it barely missed going red on 3/1/26. But unlike then and Mar-Apr of ‘25, there’s obviously now a supportive for a higher PDO full fledged very strong Nino:
  14. Today
  15. The only thing I am sure of is it will probably act much closer to 82-83/97-98 than it will 15-16 and 23-24, those last 2 just had numerous oddities that more resembled La Ninas, there is probably no chance that is happening this time, especially since the last 2 winters showed signs of moving away from that pattern we had been seeing for the previous 5-6 winters.
  16. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  17. I got ~0.6” 9-10AM from a nice batch of convection moving NNE over almost the entire SAV area.
  18. SPC has a green check mark day 1 marginal risk out today just for 5% damaging winds stalled frontal boundary shenanigans .
  19. Not even fall yet, and 2021 was pretty warm so we'll see.
  20. Warmest fall on record looks likely
  21. 1973 is the one I don't like, but I don't expect the strongly +AO that that season had...even NAO maybe more favorable. Biggest issue here maybe the ridge suppressing storms at times.
  22. I’d love this combination for the SE US!
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