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In the large picture, it just goes to show there is a *lot* more to TC genesis than low wind shear, high TPW, and warm SSTs. The 3 alone are not enough. Some questions, the larger circulations that modulate things, like the MJO, Walker Circulation, subtropical high, and Hadley Cell, as some examples. Small deviations in these can mean big for sensible wx as far as TCs go, and they are not all fully understood esp. how they interact w/ each other, and alongside the most dominate cycles/circulations El Nino/La Nina. We know why the MDR is shutdown now, but outside of there? I do not think there have been much study as to cycles/more or less favorable for the subtropics and mid-latitudes. There have been some Atlantic seasons not nearly as suppressed as this one, and atypically large amount of ACE for the season is from TCs that form outside the tropics.

That quite impressive for Sep. Major dust outbreaks are usually done by early August in more typical seasons. Throw this in w/ wind shear?

Someone who puts in that much time and effort, surprised he doesn’t just have like a Milwaukee backpack vacuum… some of those things will suck the earth worms out of the ground lol.

About 6 - 8 hours away

He was out there from about 11-4:00. Thr thing is… there’s still thousands to come down.

November 12th

Not really. Typical.

You know he’s emptying that shop vac in your yard when you aren’t looking…

Do you really need to Sey-Mour-Rain though?

Noon. Later east of the city

How late in the day should do we see the rain clear out?

Rain will arrive tonight. A general 1.00"-2.00" rainfall with locally higher amounts in excess of 3.00" appears likely. Clouds will break tomorrow with the mercury rising into the upper 70s. However, the coolest air mass so far this season will then push into the region to begin the work week. Highs Monday through Wednesday will reach the lower and middle 70s. New York City will see lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. As a result, Central Park will experience its first reading below 60° this season. the timing matches well with the last two El Niño events: 2015-2016: September 14 and 2023-2024: September 15. Wednesday through Friday will see temperatures recover mainly to the upper 70s. However, additional cool air will likely arrive some time during the next weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.7°C for the week centered around September 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The Region 1+2 anomaly surpasses the all-time record of +4.5° that was set during the week centered around June 29, 1983. The SOI was -29.77 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.761 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.2° (near normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Upton going all in 3-5 locally 7” . Fully expecting scattered showers now

Yup. Wife and I took the dogs for a walk like 40 minutes ago and we both were saying how nice it felt out.

Was gunna say. Been overcast since around 330pm. Nice breeze too.

2015-16 wasn’t that bad for snow in southeastern areas…actually kind of impressive considering a near complete shutout in December that season

Been overcast here in NJ for a bit now

Gotta go back to early June when temps dropped this low. Gorgeous day. 10/10. Autumn is here and it’s glorious.

is that ridge south of the aleutians a nino pattern?

already pretty neutral looking, we'll almost certainly have a positve PDO by November/December. We also got a pretty good pacific pattern the last two winters even with Nina/-PDO

It would really be something if we were completely shut out from this event.