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can we see this LOW pressure tuck the coast more? What's stopping it from going more north? Nothing in my opinion this will only trend north! Luckily it's a strong storm so I don't think anyone should be worried about rain but only snow and a lot of wind!

NAM looks to be all snow here now

saw the maps, and after rereading your post a few time to take in the anomalous nature of your statement, it looks like GFS might be lead dog in this race.

Ahhhh the E Minor Prelude I forgot you said you played! (How long?) Awesome piece. Fun fact: That piece inspired some of the first bossa nova artists! You can hear it in the chord progression! Side note: I'd LOVE for something to free me from jury duty on Tuesday, lol

2/20 00z ICON Total QPF

RGEM looks close

These weather models we have at our disposal are an excellent storyteller. It's almost like they knew they couldn't fully cave one way or another at 18z and had to have us on deck for this 0z suite.

RGEM is intriguing... I don't know if it will get there but it is definitely gonna try. Looks eager to turn the corner. But may end up in the ICON ballpark, idk.

Spoke too soon - Initially looked like it was lagging but it ended up digging deeper. good start to 00z!

Canceled our nyc trip and sold our tickets. You’re welcome.

18z euro and 0z nam starting to cave to GFS look. Not sure they concede fully, but a compromise is still a win for the GFS if the trends continue. IF the GFS pulls off even a partial win, it will just make model watchin all the more "interesting" moving forward. Read somewhere that the GFS gets a big update later this year. I think I was lookin at MA thread for some comic relief.

Not arguing that, but if it looks like the other models, not sure I see the point

Rgem going to be real close…

I fully expect this middle ground most models seem to be trending to will be similar to the ultimate outcome here, but that doesn't mean I'm not having a blast watching the GFS do its thang. Even if it caves at 0Z, this has been hella fun, lol.

Icon way better

ICON with a significant shift NW as well. Again, not fully to the tuck and stall solution but the shifts we needed are becoming real on every single piece of guidance

What I am interested in seeing is if we were observing the beginning of major shift with the varsity suite at 18z, like John intimated we may be....I wouldn't expect the NAM to portend that.

That's been a consistent theme. I'll keep model watching through Saturday morning. Some snow tomorrow will keep it less stressful to track.