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Now the 00z GFS does what the GFS likes to do w/ TCs in the long range, overly aggressive. What the other global models show do not look very tropical. The system is highly asymmetrical and looks more like a monsoonal depression or STS. With a front fcst across the central Gulf, that appears reasonable. It reminds me of ET lows that you get in the cool season in the Gulf when strong El Nino is present, and the subtropical jet does become more defined in the next week. You can get strong ET lows in Oct in this area. Here's one from Oct 3, 1992. Take note @GaWx of the big rains in Brunswick GA! A strong low pressure system moving northeast out of the Gulf spawned several tornadoes in the Tampa, Florida area. One person was killed and 23 homes were destroyed as an F2 twister moved through Largo. 3 people were killed and 75 were injured in Pinellas Park as an F3 tornado ripped through. Total damage was estimated at 32 million dollars. Heavy rain spread over northern Florida and Georgia on this day and continued into the 4th. Jacksonville, Florida recorded 8.69 inches of rain and Brunswick, Georgia was deluged with 10.14 inches in 24 hours. Strong winds and a long fetch pushed tides 4 to 5 feet above normal along the west coast of Florida.

Wished we lived there

For Albuquerque, the 2026 September had the most "wet" (>0.1") days on record (8). The average is three. El Ninos at >=5 wet days for Sept since 1931 are 1940, 1941, 1982, 1997, 2006. These are good winters - very wet, each with 12-28 inches of snow in the city. The Jun-Sept period finished with 12 days over 0.1" - generally >=11 favors a good winter for snow in the city. Since ABQ just had its wettest month since Nov 1905, literally 120+ years ago, second wettest month since 1892, its probably worth looking at the 1905-06 El Nino too for precipitation nationally - but haven't had a chance yet. June-Sept at ~5.96" is also rare for an El Nino. Only a handful of El Nino Summers are >5.0": 1940, 1941, 1963, 1968, 1972, 1986, 1991, 1997, 2006, 2014, 2015, 2018. 1940-1941 0.0 9.2 0.5 0.9 0.5 2.0 T 0.0 13.1 1941-1942 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.1 3.0 7.1 T 0.0 14.6 1963-1964 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 8.2 1.3 T 0.0 10.0 1968-1969 0.0 0.0 7.4 0.9 1.8 5.5 0 0.0 14.7 1972-1973 0.0 2.9 1.2 9.5 1.8 13.9 8.1 0.0 37.4 1986-1987 3.2 0.6 0.2 4.9 4.9 0.2 2.2 0.0 16.2 1991-1992 2.5 1.5 2.1 5.6 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 12.7 1997-1998 0.9 1.1 8.8 0.2 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.0 12.4 2006-2007 0.0 0.2 20.8 2.2 4.7 0.0 0.9 0.0 27.9 2014-2015 0.0 0.0 1.2 4.2 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.2 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 7.2 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.8 2018-2019 0.0 0.0 3.3 2.0 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.5 Means: Fall: Oct -0.6" Nov - 1.3" DJF: Dec - 4.5" Jan - 2.9" Feb - 3.2" MAM: Mar -2.7" Apr - 0.9" May - 0.0" Total: 16.1" (100 year mean is ~9.6", 30 year mean is ~7.1") The crazy bit with these El Ninos is the 12 seasons average ~9.0 inches of snow in the top month and no individual month in ABQ averages even three. So "wet monsoon" + El Nino is typically a good indication of at least one big snow month for the SW.

For the first time in awhile, I don't want a hurricane in any context anywhere in the Atlantic

Yeah, 1961 was the last real hyperactive (175+ ACE season) until 1995. With very few exceptions, the 1962-1994 period was relatively quiet in the Atlantic. Of course, the Blizzard of 1993 was preceded by the devastating Hurricane Andrew in 1992 (although the rest of that season was very quiet).

September finished quite similarly to a blend of the past four El Nino Septembers (2015, 2018, 2019, 2023) nationally. The West is not as warm in those years as 2026 is forecast for October - that will be a good test to see if that grouping fails going forward. PNA was primarily negative (as you'd expect looking at the maps) in Sept 2026. -PNA in Sept is weakly negatively correlated in the NW for Oct - I.e. it 'should' be warm, east should be cold. For the West, the Cansips roughly matches the correlation map.

0Z UK: high end 992 mb TS hits FL panhandle Sat AM and is the 3rd UK full run in a row with a Gulf TC: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 22.8N 94.2W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 07.10.2026 84 22.8N 94.2W 1005 27 0000UTC 08.10.2026 96 22.6N 93.1W 1002 28 1200UTC 08.10.2026 108 23.9N 91.7W 999 36 0000UTC 09.10.2026 120 25.0N 90.3W 997 41 1200UTC 09.10.2026 132 26.3N 89.4W 996 41 0000UTC 10.10.2026 144 27.9N 87.8W 992 53 1200UTC 10.10.2026 156 30.3N 86.6W 996 42 0000UTC 11.10.2026 168 32.6N 87.9W 1003 29

Picked up some good rain today and tonight. 1.56 so far.

mid atlantic bomb in feb

not really this is typical this time of year in fairbanks..

I'll take it.

Follow-up: as expected per model progs, 80N+ warmed further since 9/30 with a total of a whopping 5C over just the last 4 days to solidly AN:

Yes, yes it is. I already live on it. not trying to throw a “yellow card” for the shoreline, but it’s better than living on “Ocean Avenue.”

Impossibly beautiful day up at WXW2. A generational foliage run here this year which I hope extends to SNE in another week or two.

Insane

Cohen's postulation that high rate of advance of Siberian snow cover during October leads to a -AO winter has been hit or miss at best, but almost always a miss during Strong El Ninos.