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Light rain showers here presently. 70 F.

Totals weren’t as high as our HECS, but no mixing and dry slots and all that garbage. Snowcover lasted a month. Many nostalgic memories with my kids (which also affects my ranking).

The current drought monitor illustrates one of the greatest comebacks in mid-Atlantic history.

This is a new interesting study on how the oceans and land areas have warmed so rapidly in recent years. Ryan Katz-Rosene, PhD @ryankatzrosene · 20h Woah this is a fascinating new paper in Nature! It tries to figure out what caused the unprecedented marine heat wave seen in the North Atlantic in 2023 (which in turn caused extreme weather chaos and heatwaves, especially in Europe) They find that “the primary driver of the marine heatwave was record-breaking weak winds across much of the basin.” Weak Winds! You see, the winds were super weak, which in turn is linked in with an especially thin upper ocean level, which in turn can cause more rapid warming of that layer. Usually it’s 20-40 meters “thick”, but in 2023 it was only 10 meters thick. A secondary contributing factor was potentially the reduction in shipping fuels through the IMO’s low sulfur fuel policy. This allowed more solar energy to reach that already thin upper ocean layer. The weak winds could have been caused by the development of an El Niño that year, though prior research has shown how anthropogenic global warming is reducing the ability of winds to mix the upper ocean, causing it to gradually thin. As the lead authors note, “Marine heatwaves are expected to worsen as Earth continues to warm due to greenhouse gas emissions, with devastating impacts on marine ecosystemssuch as coral reefs and fisheries. This also means more intense hurricanes – and more intense land-based

Seems like around noon time on here screwed.

Low of 68 with .08” of rainfall. A very light rain starting to break out here at the moment.

Yeah, the clouds and showers will probably cap the high temperature potential unless the late month pattern can find a a way to dry out a bit.

Let me go on record as saying that 70 degrees 70 dew point and foggy with 100% humidity (which caused me to turn on my a/c before 7 am) is much much worse than 100 degrees with a 58 dew point and 25% humidity and sunshine, for which I would never have to turn on the a/c. With another tropically wet month coming up I'll be spraying for mosquitoes and other nasty bugs outside.

Yes, when we have great winter patterns in place the snowstorms can often overperferform relative to longer range model forecasts. But since February 2022 most of the snowstorms have been in the long range only to disappear once the models catch onto how strong the Pacific Jet is under 120 hrs. So in effect these models aren’t well suited for such a fast Pacific Flow regime. Our only two colder and snowier months in the 2020s have been February 2021 and January 2022.

So it looks like June will be wet just like May was but with much higher humidity, so more like a tropical climate for us? I'm going to have to spray outside for mosquitoes and other bad bugs.

yeah this weather absolutely sucks, on came the a/c even before 7 am lol 100 degrees sunny and dew point of 58 with humidity of 25% is so much more comfortable than this.

what you're describing sounds a lot like 2004-05 that was the famous Messenger (RIP) winter when everything trended favorably for coastal snowstorms.

interestingly, in winters like 1993-94. 1995-96 and 2004-05 the models underdid snowfall.

The deep red is the higher pressure than normal. This leads to easterly flow here once the back door drops south. The EPS is forecasting a stalled out front to be somewhere south of us mid-June. Once waves of low pressure start to ride east it will eventually lead to the rains coming back north into our area mid-June. But maybe we can sneak in a dry weekend for a change.

paradoxically, CC may cause ocean effect snow to increase for the Cape and Islands?

67 and humid feeling, overcast from wildfire smoke aloft.

Chris whats that giant High in eastern Canada doing in the first map, all that deep red up, what are the temperatures under that?

Looks like it could be pretty nice next Saturday at the moment...hoping that holds for backyard grad party.

Eastern areas should be ok for awhile today

It’s NNE warm season baby. Haven’t even entertained being up there yet.

No showers here at all just foggy and 100% humidity and yucky 70 degrees. I don't know why some people go by the temperatures, 100 degrees with a 58 dew point and 25% humidity is MUCH more comfortable than this mess I turned on the air conditioner as soon as I woke up. No a/c needed with 100 degrees and 58 dew point and 25% humidity, this weather is so much worse!

Looks wet at times, daily through Tue... added the Prob of >0.01 from wet 00z/7 EPS and drier GEFS. I wouldn't promise anyone a dry Sunday afternoon-night... just by natural, albeit weakening northeastward ejection of the lead short wave, I would think rain would impact. our area later Sunday. When to mow if you didnt yesterday... for me up here, window of opportunity 4P today to 2P Sunday. Attached probs. Next chance of 90 interior seems next Thu-Fri though ensembles dont play it up. Very rapid warming again after the trough aloft our area Tue-Wed lifts northward, similar to this past Wed-Fri. Will add first week CF6 for Newark tomorrow morning.

https://rohrerseeds.com/products/st-gabriel-holy-moley-mole-repellent-10-lb?srsltid=AfmBOoqHunpQHPlH-DlrQqHVxYH_03x1GrCW_Nrmma3Bi4KuyIcXya_c Neighbor put this down last year with pretty good success.

We are starting out with fog here today with showers across the area. Then we dry out tomorrow morning before more rain later in the day into the evening. So our first major 95° heat and first 90° east of NYC will have to wait. Longer range it looks like a back door pattern for next weekend with strong Canadian high pressure. Maybe the high will be strong enough to keep the stalled front and rains closer to DC and south. Would be nice to get a dry weekend with comfortable June temperatures. The strongest heat is forecast to stay to our West through mid-June.

My pointing out a particular repeating pattern over time with our storm tracks leading to less snow is more about pattern recognition on my part. I use it in real time to point out that the models have been too snowy beyond 5 days. This has lead to the famous modeled snowstorm always being a week a way. Which is due to the models underestimating the influence of the Pacific Jet longer range. Adding extra warmth to the system in multiple locations causes shifts in the storm tracks. So we need to acknowledge this as a forecast aid.