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They didn't have Montauk hitting 80 on a SW wind either a few weeks ago and yet it happened.

its just like they overdo the rain/snow line and show Long Island getting 0 snow lol

The NAM always overdoes the seabreeze, I would never use that. Also, as someone who lives out here, I never use raw numbers off of a global model for temps especially this time of year, you'll never be right. You think today's Euro was correct with today's forecast out here? Today's 12z Euro had a high of 79 for Shirley and 80 for ISP for today, Shirley hit 84 and ISP hit 85 officially. Today's 18z GFS never had Westhampton over 80, all wrong. GFS doesn't even have the resolution to "see" Westhampton properly if you're looking at maps I prefer to use hi-res models in the short term, you get a much better idea of the kind of temperature gradient to expect and wind direction. I love the GEM-LAM (HRDPS) for this although it can be a little too warm sometimes. HRRR isn't bad either, but the NAM is way too cool most of the time.

Can confirm...tons of pine needles. Water is 85 (and rising), so it's all good Yard is loaded with branches again, just like the fall and winter.

All look to dry up beyoond CPA

Ended on a partly cloudy note Gorgeous day Clouds and some showers storms back in PA look to fizzle out, but some clouds overnight and into the morning perhaps

...Parts of the Northeast... Storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the Northeast as a mid-level shortwave trough shifts southeast. These storms could be marginally severe with some damaging wind threat. In the wake of this convection, very strong to extreme instability is expected to build into the Northeast, but very warm lower tropospheric temperatures and building heights aloft should suppress additional afternoon thunderstorms. Damn. Love that extreme wording though

It turns out Lindzen's Iris Theory is yet another failed contrarian theory. The Earth does not have some magical iris that prevents warming by reducing absorbed solar radiation. In fact, the consilience of evidence points to a positive shortwave feedback which was hypothesized as early as the 1960s.

Well, looks like after Monday the ridge will move east and then stall, setting up a ring of fire pattern for potentially the rest of the week next week. There are some differences as to where the exact stationary front sets up, however whatever areas that do end up underneath the ring could experience repeated rounds of heavy rain and potential flooding. These setups where there is a large ridge stalled on the E coast and a wide open GOM have caused major flood events in the past, such as a year ago when MN/IA/WI flooded while Detroit and points E experienced several days in the 90s. Definitely something to keep an eye on as we move into next week.

Since I mowed this evening instead of tomorrow I'm guessing it finally won't rain here at all

When I went to Florida my first time ever 3 years ago to visit my girlfriends parents we flew into FLL…when I hit that wall…it was amazing.

Yours, Innedsnow , Dendy’s?

Still 90 at midnight? At your house?

Love that feeling when you walk out the door and it feels like exiting FLL airport! Just hits you like a wall, no escape

That means pretty much every model is overdoing the seabreeze which is something that globals I would think would have a problem picking up properly to begin with. So if they're all showing an ocean wind cooling everyone off you'd think they'd be on to something.

The nights that it’s still 90 at midnight and 90 by 7:30 AM. No cooling . So awesome

Today being the summer solstice marks the longest day of the year but also marching us towards Fall every single day. Also our days will be getting shorter so summer can suck it...

Love those 90 by 9am mornings! When you can really enjoy the heat for hours and hours the entire day. LFG!

Yes, we live in a continental climate, the influence of the ocean is limited and in such a situation comes in only after the high temperature has already been reached.

Either way, whatever the high temperature is, it's going to be seen as a referendum on the effects of climate change on our area in terms of summertime high temperatures. Let's see how much climate change has really affected our high temperatures in the summer. JFK hit 99 on May 29, 1969 and 98 on June 19, 1994. Let's see if CC has made enough of a difference to beat those records, sea breeze or not.

HRRR rips damage thru region and NAM says HHH . Probably need to sell HRRR https://x.com/eweather13/status/1936165616903225673?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

A sustained period of above normal temperatures is now underway. Temperatures will top out in the middle 80s tomorrow. Afterward, the heat will come roaring back on Sunday with the mercury soaring into the 90s across the region. Excessive heat is likely Monday, Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday Temperatures will likely top out in the middle and upper 90s in the New York City area and upper 90s to lower 100s in the hot spots in New Jersey. There remains some uncertainty about the magnitude of the heat. The ECMWF continues to show potential June monthly record heat for parts of the region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late summer. The SOI was -6.89 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.245 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.8° (1.8° above normal).

Yea I can recall many times in the past where it's 90+ degrees with a southerly wind off the water in June, and that's in modest heat waves

So, are we gonna get wet tonight or tomorrow?

Would expect sea breezes each day, can still make a run at 100 before 1pm