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  2. LakePaste25
    Once we see that subsurface cool pool out in the W pac upwell some more (probably sometime later this winter), we could see RONI catch up to ONI.
  3. CoastalWx
    Then later that month, we had the snow event with some more tree damage. That was a great month of Phil. October 2021 had the epic wind event. We need to make October great again.
  4. mitchnick
    I agree about the HR hitter coming to bat, but I don't think we can rule out other light or moderate chances with the advertised precip anomalies on all modeling.
  5. CT Valley Snowman
    There was some damage up here near the border, Enfield/Suffield/Granby area. I recall a burst of strong winds. We were right on the edge.
  6. GCWarrior
    I was just thinking about this yesterday. I'm glad someone started this thread. My favorite thread! Smuggs, Burke, Berkshire East and Catamount all owned by Bear Den partners now. Should be interesting to see what they do with Smuggs going forward.
  7. Interstate
    I will put this Sunday's rain on the tropical system though. I know by the time it reaches us, it will just be a low pressure system on a front, but it is still bring up tropical moisture.
  8. Tyler Penland
    I mean you can see the trough shearing it off on the left side this morning. It's not just going to bulldoze into that, and even if the "center" does technically move I don't think it will matter much after landfall- going to be a rapidly expanding moisture envelope. My biggest concern about rain is coastal convection cutting us off. I've noticed a weak low type thing on the hurricane models and now the globals a little bit trying to pop off the SC/GA coast. Could cut moisture flow off some.
  9. WinterWolf
    Ya…was gonna say, I have no recollection of that. But then I saw what you wrote about it being a Mass special.
  10. Benjamn3
    I remember doing a similar thing here in VA. I was cutting shooting lanes before deer season in mid September 2009 a little late for that but I was 20 and stupid lol. I was fussing about the lack of cold and snow, during fall and winter. Though I was also glad because I had just enlisted in The Marines, and it gave me some more time to train before I got to Paris Island in March…and we all know how 09-10 went. Haha
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, that is precisely what I was intimating in my write-up.
  12. Met1985
    I hope so. You'd think it would push it more eastward.
  13. Guest

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    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  15. CoastalWx
  16. CoastalWx
    Yea we got crushed here. One swath went through my hood about quarter mile away. Another swath about a mile away that had big boy damage.
  17. bluewave
    A big question going forward is what does the future relationship look like in regard to the equatorial trade winds vs WWBs following such an enormous warm pool push from the WPAC to EPAC?
  18. Mount Joy Snowman
    Low of 51. Perfect weather for a few days and then some hurricane remnants make things wet and sloppy on Sunday. Carry on.
  19. Tyler Penland
    I've been looking for a late season analog that jumped NNW/NW after landfall and I haven't been able to find one. I think we see a slight eastward adjustment today to account for the trough coming in.
  20. Today
  21. Boston Bulldog
    Hah, impressive guillotine. The core will not be that well put together on approach, it also won’t be totally gone by landfall
  22. Interstate
    I see the Eastward motion help counteract the shear but as soon as it turn north, that is when you will start to see it get ripped apart.
  23. CoastalWx
    Still a little disorganized on IR. Although, it seems to be fighting off shear a bit.
  24. EastonSN+
    Pretty cut and dry from a historical perspective. Strong El ninos are either warm and relatively snowless or have a short snowy period inclusive of a major event. If we get that period then NC can easily reach above average snowfall. Basically an all or nothing HR hitter coming to the plate knowing 3 strikeouts are inevitable. However always that chance for a HR in the 4th AB.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I saw that...he's swinging in towards my early hedge. Usually he likes to tout a more rapid weakening of El Nino amongst data, but I don't think that is the case, so it's probably the EURO in general looking snowier.
  26. Met1985
    Well this thing has trended west so we may not get much rain at all around here
  27. mitchnick
    In January, 1979, several of us hiked up to Chimney Rock. I remember I brought a thermometer with me. It was 21 at the top. I specifically recall lamenting while up there about the lack of snow that winter despite the cold. Little did I know that a week or so later we would have 3 snowstorms in a row starting the end of January and culminating with PDI. Oh the memories of a weenie.
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