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no watch here yet - BUT they are experiencing severe weather in Central PA with a line developing and a watch was never issued for them

We had some bigguns in Brockton. 104mph macroburst May 96, July 99 with baseball hail and wind.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch out until 9pm.

I think Greta is the center fold this year.

what, no railing on that side? that's not up to code!!

There was one storm back in the 90s or early 2000s, forget which that went through Middlesex County Mass, I lost count of how many houses I went to that had new roofs because of the hail in the storm.

Updated NMME hasn't caved on the generally cooler look with this month's run vs last like the Euro. Top 2 pics are DJF temps from last month and today. Bottom 2 are JFM same comparison. P.s. Note I said "generally." Some spots up to the NE not. Also, wet along the east coast and inland some. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nmme&region=us&pkg=apcpna_multimonth_nmme&runtime=2026080800&fh=6

@donsutherland1@bluewave I noted previously some concerns about data discontinuity in the ASOS stations since the switch from the legacy HO-1088 to the new HMP155E and the new RM Young 43502 shelters. Of particular note, the ventilation/aspiration rate has been increased from 4-10x (from ~1 m/s to 5-11 m/s). To date, I'm unaware of any published NOAA/NWS comparative studies on the change. In the past, all of these changes were published and documented. So, to get a better idea at the magnitude of the potential bias, I looked at 75 cooperative stations reporting in Pennsylvania for both 2022 & 2026 (excluding Altoona 3 W, which had only 1 day of data last month) and 58 cooperative stations in Ohio reporting for both 2022 & 2026. And compared this to 26 WBAN (generally ASOS) stations in Pennsylvania and 28 WBAN stations [including CVG] in Ohio, and boy the differences are night & day. Across the Pennsylvania coop network, 2026 was 0.2F warmer than 2022, with max temperatures .55F cooler and minima 0.91F warmer. Across the WBAN stations, 2026 was -0.92F cooler, with daytime maxima 1.44F cooler & overnight lows about -.4F cooler. Same story in Ohio. The cooperative stations were ~1.2F warmer in the means, while the WBAN sites averaged about 0.1F cooler. Overall, Pennsylvania cooperative stations averaged 1.12F warmer in 2026 relative to 2022 versus WBAN stations. In Ohio, the difference was 1.26F warmer. Based on the cooperative station data, I would estimate the overall bias to be around 1.2F of cooling. Really have to take these recent data showing cooler temperatures relative to recent years at many of the "official" stations with a grain of salt.

SPC meso out for the slight risk area. 60% watch issue chance

More storms building. It's not drying out anytime soon.

Here we go again https://x.com/TylerSebreezy/status/2085521744992047216 Tyler Sebree @TylerSebreezy The NSSL machine-learning severe probabilities for the next 2 weeks. Certainly adds credence to the severe weather potential over the next 5-6 days across the Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, & Northeast. Storm clusters with wind damage are the most likely risk.

Interesting

Speaking strictly from parameters on the SPC mesoanalysis page, I'd favor NE Maryland into the western suburbs of Philly today. Weaker lapse rates may be offset by the hillier terrain there as things coalesce.

I remember they followed from Worcester to the Mass Pike into Boston. I miss my western sky view when I could sit there and watch the distant flashes

Around 90 here in the CTRV at 1 PM and dewy. Dog days baby.

88/78.1

ahhh there is nothing like the sound of unsticking your shorts from your body. You have to do it very slowly and in a very quiet environment but its a very pleasant and soothing sound for the ears and your spiritual body.

I do in fact dare

Severe Thunderstorm Warning PAC067-099-071715- /O.NEW.KCTP.SV.W.0228.260807T1628Z-260807T1715Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service State College PA 1228 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026 The National Weather Service in State College PA has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... North central Juniata County in central Pennsylvania... Central Perry County in south central Pennsylvania... * Until 115 PM EDT. * At 1228 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from Mexico to near Spruce Hill to Colonel Denning State Park, moving east northeast at 20 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... New Bloomfield, Mcalisterville, Spruce Hill, Mexico, Loysville, Ickesburg, Walnut, Mifflintown, Port Royal, Thompsontown, Millerstown, and Mifflin. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Stay inside a well built structure and keep away from windows. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these severe thunderstorms. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Very heavy rainfall is occurring with these severe thunderstorms, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 4028 7756 4058 7747 4067 7712 4046 7717 4033 7723 TIME...MOT...LOC 1628Z 257DEG 15KT 4056 7740 4040 7744 4030 7750 HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH $$

Most of the BN on the NMME is probably being caused by an abundance of rain.But we'll see. In early 98 during a strong Nino the Cumberland had quite a storm caused by dynamical cooling,it was only suppose to be cool light rain,but they ended up with over 20" of wet snow..lol Maybe this winter will have its own analogs as strong as it seems to be ATM.Typically right now the PDO should be more + than - When the strong NINO in 98 started to decline into winter,during April was quite severe,that was the year Southern TN had the F5 tornado.Not saying that will happen agin,just pointing that out

Thunderstorms and showers are breaking out rapidly.

Looks like CPa and west could have snowy Dec