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First mention of winter wx in the morning AFD! Behind the frontal system, surface high pressure builds over the central CONUS beginning on Friday before shifting eastward. A tight pressure gradient between the surface high and the departing low pressure system leads to breezy conditions across the forecast area Friday night into Saturday. Northwest winds gust 20 to 30 knots, with higher elevations gusting up to 40 knots. Wind headlines may be needed across the higher elevations but we will continue to monitor. It`s also worth mentioning that with gusty northwest winds, upslope snow showers are possible along the Alleghenies on Saturday with high temperatures staying in the 30s across the ridges. Little to no accumulation is expected although the first flakes of the season are possible.
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Another 2" here...
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1.92. Solid drink
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2.80”
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0.32" Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk
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Yes trends don't change that rapidly. Also CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere. As long as CO2 emissions increase, even very slowly as they have in the past few years, the rate of CO2 increase in the atmosphere also increases. To see a decrease in the rate of CO2 accumulation, need to see a decrease in emissions and that hasn't happened through 2025. This year CO2 emissions are projected to decrease slightly, but emissions are still higher than they were 10 and 20 years ago. To see a decrease in CO2 accumulation in your chart, CO2 emissions would need to flat line or decrease for a longer period of time. You'll see the impact of emission changes more easily in this chart. CO2 emissions and CO2 accumulation increased steadily through the 2010s. Renewables only began to move the needle in this decade. This years CO2 increase, when posted, will be the smallest in 15 years. If CO2 emissions flat line or decrease slowly in the remainder of this decade, then decade average emissions will still be larger than the 2010s. So would expect a small increase in the decade average CO2 accumulation which would set us up for a decrease in the CO2 accumulation rate in the 2030s. Like I said above don't want to minimize the size of the problem. We are fighting growth in energy use, the long life of fossil-fuel emission sources, and the persistence of CO2 in the atmosphere.
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Looks like right about 2” here. Solid drink. Drought-be-gone.
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Leave it to the Ravens to blow a 4th quarter lead late...wait what do you mean the Ravens came back instead?
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Looks like about 2.3" here total
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Even when we had our colder months from November to February, they were getting record +10 months in the West. So the geographic footprint of the cold was very small in the East. The shrinking size of the winter cold pools since the 2015-2016 super El Niño is part of the reason that 2025-2026 was our first colder longer term temperature winter since 2014-2015. Prior to the 2015-2016 winter, we would usually get a cold winter every few years. This was the first 11 year hiatus between cold winters. The chart below is for the entire Northeast which has been in the same boat as our local area.
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Surprised to see 4.53” final total when I woke up, by far the biggest event since I got my ambient
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Interested to hear what anyone in the Leesburg to Frederick area has for totals from this one. Left town Friday morning and came back last night to see that 5.75” of rain had fallen here. Impressive!
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1.69 inches about twice what was predicted.
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US National Weather Service State College PA Favorites ·n͏t͏r͏s͏o͏p͏o͏S͏e͏d͏c͏1͏6͏0͏h͏l͏i͏0͏1͏f͏1͏6͏l͏2͏a͏4͏4͏c͏7͏f͏c͏f͏4͏5͏3͏t͏u͏1͏i͏3͏i͏i͏t͏8͏h͏f͏h͏9͏2͏l͏m͏m͏l͏2͏c͏2͏m͏3͏8͏i͏ · Which one are you looking forward to more?
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
bluewave replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
We don’t know the specific details that far out. But the latest Euro continues the record WWBs at least into next March. This is why the model is trying to develop a 2nd Nino 1+2 warming peak near the end of the run like the CFS. -
3.11 was the final talley.
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2.67 total
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About 2.2” storm total
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What an epic win
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1.56" total.
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4.07 final total...really impressive event
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
EasternLI replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
They seem to have downloadable archive files in addition to 3 text files which can be viewed directly on a web browser. With the downloadable ones also containing the text files. I thought that was weird too. Not sure what the purpose of that is, but I'm sure they have their reasons. The following 3 links are the text links which will be displayed on a web browser. Full list of data (since 1953): https://www.atmohub.kit.edu/data/qbo.dat Singapore data only (since 1987): https://www.atmohub.kit.edu/data/singapore.dat Singapore data for 2026 only: https://www.atmohub.kit.edu/data/singapore2026.dat
