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28.9⁰ here now. It's been below freezing since 7pm, but flatlined at 29⁰ for the past 2 hours. Stations just to my south are running 26 - 27⁰ and stations just to my north are running 31 - 34 (with a few higher). Just north of that is a lot of relatively warm water.

Bullseye! https://x.com/wfaaweather/status/1991697682084122874?t=kJ5x6yrdEHdWtt8gWCUCJw&s=19 This was also the wettest November day on record for DFW with 3.92" of rain today.

lol caps are like - oh wait, maybe we should score more goals

I think with terrible models have been, no one should get excited in terms of snow until there is model consensus for snow in their backyard within the 2-3 day window.

Do not submit your accumulations with the inches (") symbol. It converts the entry from a number to plain text in the Google Sheet. This then breaks the "sum" formula adding up the totals.

Of course . It has been rough.

Last Feb there was a storm that looked like a KU for the I95 5 days out, then it got suppressed to coastal virginia/NC lol. You're dead on with the "cutter or suppressed" track stuff, even though people here give you shit for it. It never works for philly to nyc anymore.

You nailed it! Fairfield Inn & Suites by Marriott Somerset.

It's premature to panic, but I feel the angst. We're coming up on 5 years since the last good snow event in SENY through NNJ. I can't speak for other areas, but that's a rough stretch. And I can understand why some people would feel antsy about a recurrent shit winter pattern.

No, there is nothing to suggest it even goes above average as we move into January.

This is impressive to see though models are showing the potential destruction of the Nina like atmosphere coming up as we go into December. This really should kick into effect a downwelling kelvin wave from the warm pool sitting around 160E below the surface.

Yes there has been nothing to suggest more than a displacement event taking place. The warming overall is very muted and while the semi-permanent ridging is impressive leading to a much weakened zonal flow there is more to it than just a weakened zonal flow. The SPV is still very much intact just getting knocked around for now. This certainly feels like there is potential for a 2-3 week period of wintry like effects as we get to mid December and on due to this.

Yes. 26° Lawns have frost

I’m anticipating a busy panic room this year.

Very much agreed a quick disruption followed by a very strong PV when it flips back

Oof, not good to see.

Sorry life has been something else the last week. I would like to revisit this hopefully over the weekend I get some free time to chat about this and go further. Ill take a look at the article/ journal you posted then.

With our climate becoming increasingly hostile to snow each winter, we need as many things to go right as possible.

Point and click has a low of 35, I’m at 27.

Well sure, if we can get some -EPO cold in place and then launch the -NAO, then it's game on. I was more referring to the loss of the -NAO that had been showing up as mentioned by Chuck, was not a huge loss in my opinion, although I'd still rather have it in place than not.

Ovi hat trick!

People jumping off bridges in late November lol

I was reading that the wind was about to reverse over the North Pole -- but if you think about it, the wind at the North Pole has to be either calm or southerly.

You do know it's not even December yet right?! It hardly ever snows around here this early unless you're far nw