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The feature which makes or breaks the storm is less than 60 hours from making its move out of the SW. Models should be able to better predict how quickly it ejects east and how it phases with the NS piece today.

Someone on southernwx mentioned Dec 5 2002 as a potential analog: There are some differences, but I'm not sure its totally off the table

Is there any chance this trends so far that it ends up icestorm SNE and snow NNE?

We have been pretty lucky with moderate to heavy(6-10") all snow events over the last several years on the coastal plain, including 2 last winter. Probably due for a snow to sleet deal. Hopefully not freezing rain.

Substantial differences between the 0z and 6z Euro in regards to high pressure over the top. At 0z it lost it. At 6z, it's back. Not sure that changes the surface, but bizarre to see that big of a change from run to run. I'll post a thumbnail here in just a sec of the differences - majorly different. Probably why the 6z run was forced a hair south.

Saw this in the SE forum and supports what Holston is saying: The WPC discussion is interesting: ”Suspect that the exact details of these features is far from settled upon, especially the northern stream energy which is currently strung out across much of western Canada into the arctic. Thus tend to think that the unanimous model trend could be a slight mirage”

Pardon my ignorance, but I simply assumed the NMB was literally just solutions averaged out? Is it something else? Because I really don't understand how we are averaging this much snow still with some pretty big misses on some of the bigger models.

2002 was fun! I never lost power and I didn't have to go to class! Unfortunately, I no longer live in a dorm...

WB 6Z EPS about the same as 0Z.

Today marks the all-time record low for Harrisburg, too, at -22° back in 1994 after the blizzard

Really only one panel P02, shows significant mixing issues. Good stuff.

It’s over boys! Cope and get those chainsaws ready.

Like blue wave said 90% of the time with these big storms you’re going to tend to mix. Let’s hope it comes at the end and when we dry slot.

The 0z models tonight are what I’m really interested in. I believe that will be the first run with full sampling.

Low of 5 in Marysville.

Woke up to 12 degrees at the house.

All systems go. This thread is hotter than a firecracker! This is the only solace for me getting up so early for a doctors appointment..

This thing has been hauling ass north for days, “whooooaaaa girl, easy”

Easy. Other models dont show that yet.

DCA has 1.6" on the season, they could use some

That’s because a lot of folks were asleep when we saw the 0Z data. .

Lol. rain now possibly?

I count like 6 too amped members which is about the same as 18z was.

The unusually early SSW in late November has been a really big player this winter so far.

The WPC discussion is interesting: ”Suspect that the exact details of these features is far from settled upon, especially the northern stream energy which is currently strung out across much of western Canada into the arctic. Thus tend to think that the unanimous model trend could be a slight mirage” Are they insinuating that the energy currently in Canada doesn’t reflect model data up to this point and should correct?