All Activity

I still have snow on the ground around here. With a blizzard on the doorstep. I can count on one hand the number of times I've seen that happen.

That makes a lot more sense based on current temps

Gonna need more reasoning to dispel the consistency with the majority of all the other models, meso and global. Not saying it's impossible, it just seems unlikely at this point, and an outlier solution.

The Storm hasn't formed yet.

Have a Shirley temple. It’s on me.

What about the GFS? That owned every other model on this storm? You're such a weenie.

I have probably 16-17"

Think my sleep time frame is 6pm to 11pm then full on weenie mode for the duration

Because you like what it says. You can’t believe a storm can be this catastrophic. But we learned with Sandy that indeed, things can sometimes be catastrophic. But the experts who do this professionally are indeed worried and cannot just dismiss repeated modeling showing a widespread catastrophic snowfall. They would be remiss not to. Peace.

About to...wanted to get the forecast out of the way so I can just weenie out after I lift today.

But its not May 1st

Well, it's technically part of the system so here goes... just woke up to light snow and looking like about a half inch here in Westfield early morning. I saw it modeled, but didn't expect it to really reach the ground

Snowman makes an appearance only to put his cards on one of the least snowy models? Not much of a surprise there.

I am kind of real surprised that the winter storm warning for places like Lehigh/Berks has been upped to 10-20in of snow. I think they must real be buying into these short range mesos

9Z HRRR is still rain throughout the day. Nothing like 6Z 3K NAM.

We shall see. GFS was consistent for days. Unchanged, largely. As always, snow totals are always the focus... which has always fascinated me. This will be a fairly historic blizzard for more, if for no other reason than the speed of pressure drop and potency of the low. This is a textbook storm, and will be referenced for years to come. I see zero evidence that this will be a region wide bust.

definitely. one cycle is never a trend and it wasnt even the whole suite. anyway the ECMWF did awful this storm not only was it the last to catch on (not including the AI) but then it decided to go back east for one run and was like "nah i wanna go back OTS i like it there" but then got bullied back west.

GFS doing some wobbles back and forth with the Thursday Event. At least it still has it at this point.

Did you sleep ?

We'd better win the fucking gold today for me to be missing this lmao!

General line expanded north!!!!

Oh, yea...I quickly decided today it was noise.

Usually bare ground or just crust left. This is going to be awesome. Even if we end with 10 to 12 here the drifts will be epic

I think the jackpots will be the Jersey shore, Long Island and New England as shown on the RGEM. I also think the NWS amounts are going to bust much too high. The NAM is on crack and it’s skewing the NBM which NWS loves to use. Not criticizing them just think they are going too much NAM and that’s a very huge mistake. I believe the RGEM is going to nail this

nvm, u said just as i post that map, the GFS comes out east then the euro and you said something about feeling nauseous, the blip E runs last night