All Activity

2026 Atlantic Season to date: Pretty feeble. Nothing much is likely to change before the end of the month. We'll tack on another tenth or two of ACE before Fay gives up the ghost. The lack of a hurricane this season looks like a lock to continue for balance of September. Will be up to October / November to produce a hurricane.

Definitely agree that we need to take the earlier seasons with a grain of salt because the technology wasn't as good. For 2005, we can say for certainty that the ACE value was between 245 and 250. [In 2024, I did a calculation on this season, and it came out to be 247.65, which is #1] 1933 has a wider variance, between 213 and 258. [In the same 2024 calculation, I got 235.785, which is #2]. I actually think the 258 value from NOAA is an overestimate. Here are the Top 11 ACE seasons from my 2024 calculations: 1 2005 247.65 2 1933 235.785 3 1893 231.0738 4 1995 227.5513 5 1950 227.1413 6 2004 226.94 7 1926 225.7788 8 2017 224.8775 9 1961 196.95 10 1998 181.8838 11 2020 180.3725 As for 1914, the mid-September storm was the biggest one for that season (that was almost Hurricane strength). I believe they did a reanalysis in 2005 (oddly enough, the most active season), and they couldn't find anything more. There might have been another one or two more storms, but I'm almost certain none were as big as the mid-September storm.

It’s not so far-fetched when you consider a much weaker event in 1982-1983 lingered into June and July 1983.

Scott is deep mind something you have to pay for?

Since it's becoming increasingly likely that a nor'easter or hybrid storm impacts New England, and possibly significantly, I think it's time for a breakout thread. October is usually when we see these kind of systems in New England, but this year we're seeing it early. For days, there's been a signal across guidance for some type of storm development off the east coast, and the players are starting to appear on the field. A look over the western Atlantic this morning shows an expansive area of disorganized convection. What's notable here is that in a historically quiet season in the Atlantic, where it has been difficult to get convection to fire, despite the generally hostile basin we have a window for a shallow warm core system to develop out of this. As the tropical guy, I'm actually not going to spend too much time over whether this becomes a subtropical storm, because as I noted yesterday, the NHC is highly unlikely to ever designate this, even if it looked ST. Despite not being tagged by the NHC, the guidance does seem to start this out as a warm core system, even if relatively shallow, though the 00z Euro is a bit more aggressive in maintaining a warmer core for longer. While most guidance has kept the storm closer to the coast, the GFS has waffled on whether it scrapes the coast or provides a more solid hit. It's an outlier, so this analysis is based on the current "consensus" across most guidance. Our storm system will gradually take shape, with the convection currently off the coast organizing into a weak low. From there, we see some energy from the tropics--perhaps something that would have been more likely to form in a more favorable Atlantic--get pulled into our developing coastal. From there, we see a faster pace of organization as our low consolidates as it moves up the coast. One thing that I'm interested in seeing is if this tropical feature coming up from the south becomes stronger/more organized. The trend on the Euro recently has been yes, as evidenced by the trend gif I'm posting below. Maybe it doesn't matter in the whole scheme of things because it's unlikely to become a tropical cyclone on its own, but it's of some interest to me. Critically, as energy dives in from the west as well, our newly energized low is blocked from being kicked out to sea, and is forced to hook west and meander until the escape route opens up again. This is where we get to impacts. The first thing to analyze is how strong this could get. Pressure falls are modest, and aside from the latest legacy GFS, most guidance gets the low down into the 985-990mb range. I will note that some of the AI GDM and WNV3 ensembles have stronger lows right up under New England on Sunday and given their general performance that may be something to watch as we get into higher resolution range. Regardless, this is likely to be impactful, especially for coastal areas for a few reasons. First, the pressure gradient between our low and the high to the north will create a persistent flow that likely lasts through the astronomical high tide cycle. That could bring significant coastal flooding. Moderate to major coastal flooding is already predicted for Mid-Atlantic areas. The gradient will also be a wind producer. Each model, regardless of track, has long duration windy conditions, especially in eastern New England. How far inland these winds get will depend on track of course, and how much mixing we can produce with a strong LLJ associated with our storm. These are 925mb winds on the 00z Euro And here's the (wrong) GFS. The wind and coastal flooding may be bad enough, but the biggest question IMO is rainfall. I think with a more substantial warm core system we could see higher totals, as we'd likely see a more organized storm with tropical characteristics like banding. The Euro has hinted at big rainfall totals over a few days in eastern NE, and AI guidance has painted a wider area with modest to significant rainfall. In fact, areas up the New England coast are favored for meaningful rainfall--something that folks haven't seen in a while. Bottom line: this looks like a pretty significant storm that could impact New England. There's still a lot to sort out on exact track and intensity of the system, and how organized it will be when it reaches out latitude. But the signal for something is growing, and an OTS/low impact track seems increasingly unlikely.

It looks like it is still warm enough to be a warm core storm that will transition as it moves north with the wind field expanding like Sandy did. But all that churning and slow moving is going to cool the surface. My niece is getting married on Friday afternoon in Newport in a fancy ceremony. I feel bad, but it might be interesting.

Just passed 1.00” for the event. 57°

My floor was 2" of rain for the event. Just eclipsed it...2.02" since Sunday.

My wife has a few videos she took in our backyard yesterday of "our" female hummingbird. We've seen her pretty much daily for quite a long time and have been assuming each day would be the last we'd see her, but to our delight she's still around. They're usually gone by the middle of September.

Blanked here too, but today looks like it will likely be very wet

Records: Highs: EWR: 94 (1970) NYC: 95 (1914) LGA: 93 (1970) JFK: 91 (1980) Lows: EWR: 44 (1997) NYC: 41 (1904) LGA: 47 (1962) JFK: 41 (1962) Historical: 1890 - A severe hailstorm struck Strawberry, AZ. Fives days after the storm hail still lay in drifts 12 to 18 inches deep. (The Weather Channel) 1913 - Des Moines, IA, experienced their earliest freeze of record. (The Weather Channel) 1946: A trace of snow fell at Denver, CO. This marked the start of their longest snow season on record at 263 days through 6/11/1947 when a trace of snow fell. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1956: Hurricane Flossy nears the Texas Coast 1961 - Hurricane Esther made a near complete circle south of Cape Cod. The hurricane then passed over Cape Cod and hit Maine. Its energy was largely spent over the North Atlantic Ocean, however, heavy rains over Maine resulted in widespread local flooding of cellars, low roads, and underpasses. (David Ludlum) 1974: Canadian high pressure brought record chill from the upper Midwest to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Temperatures dropped below freezing for three consecutive nights damaging crops in areas. In Illinois, frost killed almost all of the soybean crop and 40% of the corn crop north of I-80. Total statewide damage was estimated between $200 and $400 million dollars. Necedah and Mauston, WI recorded their coldest September temperatures on record with 18° and 20° respectively. Other daily record lows included: St. Cloud, MN: 18°, Grand Forks, ND: 20°, Fargo, ND: 23°, Duluth, MN: 23°, Sioux Falls, SD: 24°, Rochester, MN: 24°, Madison, WI: 25°, Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN: 26°, Waterloo, IA: 26°, Green Bay, WI: 27°, Ste. St. Marie, MI: 28°, Toledo, OH: 29°, Detroit, MI: 30°, Dubuque, IA: 31°, Rockford, IL: 31°, La Crosse, WI: 32°, Milwaukee, WI: 32° °F. (Ref. Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link) 1975: Hurricane Eloise made landfall in the Florida panhandle with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph and a minimum central pressure of 955 millibars or 28.20 inches of mercury. Panama City, FL reported a gust of 155 mph. Storm surge of 6 to 12 feet extended eastward to Port St. Joe, and tides 2 to 3 feet above normal were observed as far south as Tampa and Naples. The highest reported rainfall was 14.90 inches at Eglin AFB. Rainfall elsewhere to the west of the Apalachicola River ranged from 4 to 8 inches. Damage in northwest Florida was estimated at $150 million. About 20,000 people were evacuated in advance. Two weak tornadoes and several waterspouts were reported in the Panhandle. As the storm moved north, high winds and heavy rains led to power outages, damage and flooding. Parts of Alabama were without electricity for two weeks. The remnants moved through the Mid-Atlantic bringing flooding rains of 3 to 10 inches. Two miles south-southeast of Westminster, MD picked up 14.23 inches. The highest rainfall was a week before when Eloise passed north of Puerto Rico. Dos Bocas received 33.29 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1983 - Forty-one cities reported record cold temperatures during the morning. Houston, TX, hit 50 degrees, and Williston ND plunged to 19 degrees. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Hurricane Emily, the first hurricane to roam the Carribean in nearly six years, made landfall over the Dominican Republic late in the day, packing 125 mph winds. Emily killed three persons and caused thirty million dollars damage. A record high of 92 degrees at Miami FL was their fifth in a row. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - An early morning thunderstorm produced baseball size hail at Plainview, in Hale County TX. Late in the evening more thunderstorms in the Southern High Plains Region produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Plainview TX and Crosby TX. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Hurricane Hugo quickly lost strength over South Carolina, but still was a tropical storm as it crossed into North Carolina, just west of Charlotte, at about 7 AM. Winds around Charlotte reached 69 mph, with gusts to 99 mph. Eighty percent of the power was knocked out to Charlotte and Mecklenburg County. Property damage in North Carolina was 210 million dollars, and damage to crops was 97 million dollars. The strongest storm surge occurred along the southern coast shortly after midnight, reaching nine feet above sea level at ocean Isle and Sunset Beach. Hugo killed one person and injured fifteen others in North Carolina. Strong northwesterly winds ushered unseasonably cold air into the north central U.S., in time for the official start of autumn, at 8" 20 PM (CDT). Squalls produced light snow in northern Wisconsin. Winds in Wisconsin gusted to 52 mph at Rhinelander. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1994: A nor’easter wreaked havoc on coastal MD. 50-mph winds (gusts to 79 mph) destroyed 100’s of tents/vending areas at the end-of-summer Sunfest in Ocean City. Windblown fires burned several shops along the boardwalk; 9 foot waves flooded other areas. Damage up to $5 million. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) 1995: A strong cold front pushed across the Midwest, bringing with it one of the earliest freezes on record. In Iowa, temperatures dipped to as low as 24° over the northwest and sub-freezing temperatures lasted nearly eight hours. Crop maturation was behind schedule so this freeze caused significant damage, with soybeans the hardest hit. About $195 million dollars worth of soybeans were lost. Drought had already taken its toll on the corn crop so the freeze did not aversely affect the corn too much. Chicago, IL experienced their earliest freeze on record as the mercury dipped to 32°. The low of 29° tied the record low for the month of September at Dodge City, KS. Further north, Jump River and Cashton, WI head their earliest measurable snowfall on record with 1.5 inches and 0.5 of an inch respectively. Other daily record lows included: Rapid City, SD: 19°, Bismarck, ND: 20°, Aberdeen, SD: 20°, Valentine, NE: 23°, Fargo, ND: 23°-Tied, Huron, SD: 24°, North Platte, NE: 24°, Scottsbluff, NE: 24°, Grand Island, NE: 25°, Sioux City, IA: 25°, Norfolk, NE: 26°, Lincoln, NE: 27°, Concordia, KS: 29°, Goodland, KS: 30°-Tied, Omaha, NE: 31°, Topeka, KS: 31°, Des Moines, IA: 31°, Kansas City, MO: 31 °F. (Ref. Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link) 1998: Hurricane Georges moved across Hispaniola killing over 580 people, mainly due to flash flooding and subsequent mud slides in high terrain regions. Damage estimates from the storm exceeded $1 billion dollars. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2005 - For the first time in the historical record, two hurricanes reached category-5 intensity in the Gulf of Mexico in a single season as Hurricane Rita intensified before making landfall (Katrina and Rita). 2006 - The tristate area of Missouri, Illinois, and Kentucky was struck by the worst tornado outbreak in the recorded history during the month of September. One supercell produced a long-track F4 tornado across southeastern Missouri into southwestern Illinois. This tornado traveled 27.5 miles.

61 / 53 after a nice break yesterday but back to the muck clouds / mist. Perhaps a pleasant break Wed-Fri AM with some breaks in the clouds before we watch the trough cut off and subsequent ULL spin a storm that gets stuck later Fri - Monday. Beyond there overall near to above normal 9/29 into the first week of Oct.

Welcome heat relief has arrived!!!!

I have not seen the female Humming bird since Friday. I presume she left. The males left about a month ago. I wish they stayed around longer.

Bring your foul weather gear and a life preserver.

I know Fay operationally came just short and there likely will not be enough data for a post-season upgrade, but around the time and shortly after these images were taken it would not surprise me if the storm became a brief hurricane.

Excellent post as a whopping ~90% of the daily graphs since July 1st have averaged a -AAM in the 30N to 40N corridor! The 40N to 50N corridor also has a very high % that are -AAM although not quite as high as the 90% especially due to the last few weeks.

What a noisy rainy night we had. Just emptied 3.2 inches out of the rain gauge for the past 24 hours and it's still raining!

bend that crap ots thanks. No one wants that

Raining hard here now, overnight was an additional 0.5” so we should be getting past 1” for the system total easily.

6z deep mind more clustered south of ACK and MVY then bending west.

The bright side of this nino event is historically after strong and super ninos they collapse into La Niña, and often multi year Nina events.

First 40s since at least early June on the way