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Interesting. Why is Cory not seeing this depth on his grand tour? He is claiming so much less at the spots in Providence that he measured. Since he is so invested in this is there some way for him to contact the person who measured the 31 and go to that spot and see for himself? He needs this ultimate proof to set his mind at ease.

Yep. Just Ginxy left thinking it’s January in Fairbanks.

Remember April 7, 2018? A decent amount of snow was modeled up until a couple days before the event. Then I believe it fizzled. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/04/04/snow-chances-for-saturday-remain-but-the-accumulation-forecast-is-complicated/

Feels like spring here not Hoth. Strong sun, melting snow, birds chirping. Window cracked in car.

It must be all those chips they installed with covid vaccines…

One look at the h5/radar loops and I don’t even need measurements to indicate that was a 2-3ft storm. Corey seriously needs an intervention…

Maybe this is perception bias, but when it came to my ability to predict what a significant storm would end up doing from the guidance, it was easier for me in the late 90s and early 2000s with the old school MRF/AVN/GGEM/ECMWF and short range ETA/NGM. Those models were way way way less accurate, but they tended to be less accurate in a more consistent way. They each had very very very universally consistent bias errors and if you knew how to correct for them they were useful. Now...they are all more accurate in that they are more likely to be closer to the actual truth. But they are much higher resolution and their errors tend to be less consistently in the same direction. This makes it much harder to correct for them and determine what their errors are. Not trying to be controversial here, and I could be wrong...but at times I felt it was easier to forecast using the models 20 years ago in the medium range than now.

My AC needs a new capacitor and I'm lazy so it'll probably take me a few weeks at least to fix. Would be perfect timing for a March/April full of backdoor cold-fronts

Or just question the compos mentis in having this CFS model even in existence too . heh.

I had no idea! What year was this and how much snow did Westminster get?

The cynic would look at that confluence up near Labrador and imagine that verifying a bit south....

February 26 1996: A bolt of lightning from a snowstorm causes an explosion at a fireworks storage site in Milaca. One employee was injured and several homes in the area were damaged. An eight foot crater was all that remained where the storage site had been. 1971: Extremely low pressure moves across Minnesota. The Twin Cities had a barometer reading of 28.77 inches and Duluth beat that with 28.75. Freezing rain and snow hit northern Minnesota, dumping up to 18 inches of snow in some areas. Areas around Virginia, MN were without power for 5 days. 1896: A balmy high of 60 degrees is reported at Maple Plain. The warm weather hampered the annual ice cutting on Lake Independence to store for summer use. For Thursday, February 26, 2026 1910 - Parts of Washington State were in the midst of a storm which produced 129 inches of snow at Laconia between the 24th and the 26th, a single storm record for the state. A series of storms, which began on the 23rd, led to a deadly avalanche on the first of March. By late on the 28th, the snow had changed to rain, setting the stage for disaster. (The Weather Channel) 1972 - The Buffalo Creek disaster occurred in the Buffalo Creek Hollow of Logan County in West Virginia. A coal slag dam on the Middle Fork of Buffalo Creek burst sending a fifty foot wall of water down a narrow valley killing 125 persons and causing 51 million dollars damage. Three days of rain atop a six inches snow cover prompted the dam break. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1987 - A slow moving storm in the southwestern U.S. spread heavy snow from the southern and central Rockies into the Central High Plains Region. Totals in Colorado ranged up to 62 inches at Purgatory. Colorado Springs CO reported a February record of 14.8 inches of snow in 24 hours. Lander WY received four inches in one hour, 13 inches in seven hours, and a record storm total of 26 inches. High winds created near blizzard conditions at Colorado Springs. Fairplay CO reported 43 inches of snow, with drifts ten feet high. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Eight cities in the central and western U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date, including Lamoni IA with a reading of 67 degrees. Temperatures in North Dakota were as warm as those in Florida. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - An upper level weather disturbance brought snow to parts of the central U.S. which just one day earlier were enjoying temperatures in the 60s. Snowfall totals in Missouri ranged up to nine inches at Rolla. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Unseasonably cold weather followed in the wake of the winter storm in the northeastern U.S. Ten cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Syracuse NY with a reading of 10 degrees below zero. Freezing temperatures in southeastern Virginia caused considerable damage to plants and fruit trees. The barometric pressure reading of 30.88 inches at Wilmington NC was February record for that location. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2004 - A major snowstorm dumps up to 20 inches of snow in the Charlotte metropolitan area. Charlotte's third largest snowstorm on record accumulates 11.6 inches at the airport.

Westminster's biggest snowstorm on record was March 31-April 1 Yes the odds of snowfall start to go down significantly past March 10th BUT we've had enough random snowstorms even up until about April 1, especially NW of the fall line, to at least keep an eye on it. See if that random once every 15 years type storm pops up. If you need days and days of snowcover after and let the fact it starts to melt the next day ruin it for you...then ya maybe you should check out. lol

the 12z "ICONt model anything worth a piss beyond D4" guidance ( so tfwiw - ) has a nasty ice wall signaled for the 6th. The GFS spent a couple of runs doing this recently too. Think it abandoned the idea at 6z however.

Before the Blizzard, I had a 5 x 5' patch of lawn appear in the front yard. Vibrant green still

Feels like at times it is too dry/weak but it’s generally pretty consistent with that imo so makes it easier to work with than if it was erratic. Definitely worthwhile if not quite as much as its peers.

Just curious, is this a paid subscription service? Is this monetized in any way or just for fun?

Lets start mowing.

Bring on the shorts and tshirts!

Ya but it’s ramping up a bit . Northern ct to CN look in a good spot now clouds be a repeat of yesterday except 50 miles north

Hope that works out thermals-wise, though I am suspicious of a widespread all-snow event unless we get dynamics going for us again. Snow to rain has been modeled with this more than once.

Yea. Eff dews. I like warmth but not dew warmth.

That’s been looking like 2-3/2-4 for a day or so now

Yes please!!!

Just for fun ... but if your a spring enthusiast lookin' for a dopa hit, check out the CFS for March 12th