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Great post!

https://www.northshorewx.com/19780113.html

There's just so many moving pieces. Will see a bunch more solutions before it's all said and done. Maybe that means freezing rain to the NC border. But also it wouldn't be a huge shock to see things swing back the other way

we continue phasing

As much as we all want Blizzard warnings the wind speeds just aren't there. Will sadly need to take a winter storm warning for 16-20 inches instead.

EPS made the same shift towards more phasing and now has 0.75" liquid to NYC

Would really suck after all winter having such a northern stream dominated pattern that when we finally get the subtropical jet to cooperate, it causes our storm to phase and cut like that

Actually starting to look like we are gonna get "missed" again. Id rather that happen than a crippling ice storm! Models sneaking the line slightly North.

Dec 2018 was north at this point too… .

Eps

I still think this turns out to mostly a snow event from I-85 north.

These maps are crazy. I like that the precip shield is so big.

lol this is nonsense

Just saw what you did. Thanks! In the future I'll try to post it during the off run (I guess either 5-6 or 7-10ish) but I was rushing to try to get it out before the 18z Euro messed with it (and I wanted to get food). See I'd be a lot more partial to that if I was a met otherwise I'm just another poster here. Though I suppose an argument could be made for starting a separate storm banter thread and storm mode thread in the future if it holds together.

Quite the jump north with the snow on the EPS.

We’re going to get that infamous phase that’s been elusive for years and it’s going to be a mega hulk strength phase

22z? Extended HH!

I’ve been lurking long enough that I know the battle ground between ice and snow will probably be straight through wake county per usual. Climatology tells me that solution is a little overdone. But I have far from an expert. .

You’re looking for the Blizzard warning. I see what you did there. Wish we still had the heavy snow warning.

Because I’m old I can say from experience that setups like this will verify with mostly snow in Winston/Gso… snow to ice to snow in CLT and about half and half in RDU with Durham of course cashing in pretty good compared to Raleigh. That’s just how these go and most of you know that. Screw the models and just enjoy a good ol’ fashioned NC winter storm!!!

Trough on Eps is much better than 12z and better ridging ahead on the coast. Will be better than 22z.

Yea I’ll absolutely crash out and sign off for a while

It's really not that big of a jump if you've watched the trends with the northern shortwave getting stronger and digging further SW. It's just that once it goes far enough to fully phase, the upper level warmth wins out.

Don't dive yet, y'all. Or at all. We are 3-4 days out. Have some good sleep and see what tomorrow brings. Hopefully not ICE!

I take it there were no Northern Lights sightings last night, and no chance tonight?