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Yea, it's going to be a bit before we can glean any insight with that.

Our orchards are really got hit the other night. Many think they lost of 60% of the crop this year thanks to that hard freeze. It could be a really bad year for them since the blossoms all came out earlier with the heat, now this week… It is time to warm up now. How about we just get some seasonable weather for more than a day? No heat nor air conditioning needed for a bit? How about it Mother Nature?

Happy Draft Day! Any pingers this weekend? Who does the Patriots take at 31? Does AJ Brown get traded?

In the 2 days since this post, the projected next WWB is gaining strength on the models. It is going to spawn even more TC’s with the associated WWBs in their wake. IMO a super El Niño is getting very close to being a lock

Draft Day today! Temperatures in the 70s today and tomorrow. Any pingers this weekend? Who does the Eagles take at 23? Does AJ Brown get traded?

US National Weather Service State College PA Favorites · · 6 AM EDT 4/23/2026: While we'll be dry today, the next 6 days look like they will hold several rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms. The rain will add up to between 1 and 2 inches for much of the state. The rain will be welcomed by the drought-stricken south-central and southeastern counties.

00z model guidance in so far certainly does nothing to quell concerns for Monday. Could be a widespread outbreak based on just about everything I'm seeing, and the trough/EML looks to favor discrete convection for a pretty lengthy window. Going to need a dedicated thread for this soon.

Paul Roundy says this is going to be the strongest DWKW in history Very rapid surface warming in the eastern regions (1+2 and 3) has started. +5C anomalies showing up at the surface now OHC is exploding too, up to +1.90C. This is from a South American meteorologist: ^Translation: “04/22/26 Sub-surface thermal structure in the tropical equatorial Pacific. - Warm Water Volume +1.90C (increase) - #KelvinWave strengthening++ - #SubsurfaceHeating continues, emerges to the surface along the equatorial Pacific.”

We’ll be in FL for 2 months next winter….mid January-mid March. FL experienced widespread severe wx during the winter of 97-98 which is unusual but the coming Nino may be a decent analogue. We’ll see how nao behaves.

Heavy rain here

What we really need is a stalled frontal boundary with multiple waves of low pressure riding along it. Instead we get lows going into the OH valley and mostly dry fronts leading to NW flow behind it and cool air.

Following the Op Euro. Still the best model ever created

It's the context in which you use it though: If you were saying it is biased colder because of the 3-year period after the eruption, that would make sense, but another pattern prevailed, opposite of the Pinatubo probability.

91-92 is one of those very rare situations, and I don't think it should be used for anything unless there's a major volcanic eruption, or if you have a hunch there's going to be one.

Confirmed smaller than pea size hail.

Big rain drops falling right now. Pelting my house. Now pinging... Possible hail.

I'm big believer in Global SSTA's the year before, May-Nov, being a great indicator for Winter WPO. A big one is the Indian Ocean - Warm SSTAs correlate with +WPO at 0.5 (75% chance of positive) and visa-versa for cold SSTAs, relative to the global mean.

Unfortunately, after nine days straight of a widespread wetter than normal signal in the SE US for the week April 27-May 3, today’s Euro Weeklies run was much drier in most of the SE: Yesterday’s run: 9th wet run in a row Today’s run: drier signal much of the SE

Good example of this winter could look with a strongly +NAO/WPO. I am with you on the NAO, but main question is the WPO...I could see that being a bit more negative.

Well I guess it all comes out in the wash, kinda. While I just watched the last 2 or 3 severe outbreaks in our sub blow by with nary a drop, we received .25 inches total in a couple of quick, severe warned downpours. One elevated cell around 11pm last night and another around 4am. Had dime size hail with the first and pea size hail with the second. They both lasted less than 10min and the wind gusted to 45 with the first. The ground slurped it up like a drunk waiting on the bar door to be unlocked. Farmers were out doing their thing by 11, dust everywhere again. That's .6 locally for April so far. Yay

As good a mindset as any

i proposed to my now-wife in Grindelwald!

LFG Flyers!!!

Wow. Looks like the high back home was only 53°.