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God we suck at snow. We are a bunch of losers. .

I honestly have lost all confidence in the GFS. Go with the EURO and CMC.

EPS has been very stable for a full 24 hours. The spread is not that large either. I don't expect a big shift at 12z. But it could still shift tonight or tomorrow. A minor model error in a shortwave in northern Canada today can have a big impact on the height field on Sunday. Trofs that touch the Gulf can morph quickly. I usually look at the NAM for short term (<48 hours) trends with these types of events.

I could see AI being heavily influenced in thinking because you have a nrn stream moving in and srn stream coming up the coast that there will be clean phasing. Like Runnaway said, maybe there is also resolution at play here..or something to this degree? I mean the vorticity field almost seems "too smoothed"...too clean.

GFS ensemble mean.

FYI, today's drought monitor map shows at least abornmally dry conditions in every state but one -- California: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

I meant more than you think would be frustrated with a couple of inches. lol

Second half of next week looks like a fun stretch for whoever can stack waves

Halfway to a January shutout!

Mods sometimes have trouble with under doing the precipitation shield on the NW side. Not saying we are still in the game but I’m struggling to find some outs. .

It's fairly intuitive but go to my attachments in the dropdown under your username in the top right, then you can sort by size, and it shows you the thread it is posted in, so you can decide if it's like 2 years ago if it's worth keeping it.

The EC AI ensembles were bullish too at 6z. It just concerns me the euro and euro ensemble have pretty much nothing.

Have we ever had an overruning event? I always hear how that our easy way to snow yet the last i remember was maybe 2003. Before that like 1993 lol. Moral of my usual pointless posts is that there's NO easy way to snow this far south with like 5 feet of elevation lol

Please send medical assistance to your father . Even the school nurse at this point would work

Tossed as a blizzard and a whiff.

just psyched that there will be no more blackouts. I can't get MASN through Youtube TV, so this is awesome.

Go back to class

Not quite cold enough for snow on Sunday, so we'll get a little cold rain. Then the next few days will have lows around 15 degrees. Oh, North Carolina winter!

CMC is many many hours of mostly light snow on Saturday and Sunday. I think that would be a glorious outcome. I would prefer that to 10" of snow that falls from 11pm to 5am overnight on a work day.

What a weenie…checking models at school. Love it!

Today’s drought monitor update now places 56% of the state in SEVERE drought: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?NC

Please check in with dad and limit his access to sharp tools…

GFS long range has a storm around 22nd but it’s a big cutter. And has a storm just offshore for the 29th. 22nd through 29th is another period that has been showing up on models. That is our next chance for snow.

I ended up with between a half and 1 inch when I left this morning, although a heavier band looked poised to swing through as I was leaving, so I'd hedge closer to 1in. From what I saw on the drive in that was pretty uniform, nowhere looked to have really gotten a lot more than any other. Looks like the winds are shifting more WNW, so it will be interesting to see if any narrow bands setup today.

Good luck man. Hope you find something awesome. Have you seen the Euro? lol the Euro and GFS have reached second base and are sprinting toward third. We need Skynet. Desperately at this point.