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the HRRR is a shutout for me until way past sunset lol when i get clobbered by showers and storms

may as well just extrapolate to next season

My son just sent me video of the actual tornado rolling through colombia I wish weekend post videos.

RDU radar looks like little blob of "some rain " headed ths way

After last night, they are pretty much done. Sniffed 500, now lost 4 straight. 9.4% chance of making the playoffs(which is pointless anyway). They are who we thought they were.

nothing like an elite model doing stuff that models at 384 hours are suppose to do 12 hours before the event

DC = Decreased Confidence In this economy?

pay up bro

how can an elite model do this less than 12 hours from the storm. The HRRR does not seem impressed either west of DC

This image causing PTSD from last two blizzards. Southeast MA crushed. SNH skunked.

Nothing wrong with extrapolating.

Any chance you see this getting upgraded to perfect? :0

Worried the clouds have stabilized the triangle area. Rainfall focus seems to strongly be south and east of here where some earlier destabilization occurred with sunshine.

Okay Powderfreak. We get it.

add this to the list of dumb maps.

I think 8/20 starts the "peak" of the ATLC season, and goes throug 9/10. ACE is only 16% S-T-D.

I know "soaking" is subjective, but generally I think "1-2" widespread" is a good min criteria. Although definitions are fluid here b/c of the use of "STEIN!"

Man what a day…kinda warm out there in the sun. CON 81

Strong signal for a vigorous wave over the MDR in a few days, but we’ll need to see if shear can relent enough to allow for gradual development.

Cool

1st warmest (30 day average)

Regarding the AEW progged to come off Africa 8/24-5, the 12Z GFS/Euro AI are weak, especially Euro, and have it go in or near the Leewards Aug 31st. The reg. Euro has had this as a TC since way back on the 12Z 8/15 run. The 12Z Euro has it, but early on it is the weakest run for it well out in the MDR since 0Z 8/17 run. Keep in mind, however, that weaker could ultimately prove more dangerous for the W basin nearby land areas as strong runs have mostly been recurving safely as regards the Conus. Note that late in the run it is pretty far W (73W) and actually strengthens into a MH as it recurves not too far from the E coast. The model consensus has this moving at 20+ mph WNW in the MDR to the SSW of a strong E ATL high. That may be a reason models are keeping this rather weak out in that area. This is still not on the TWO. But they may change soon.

same ol shtick year after year...