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I'll never forget turning on TWC on 7/15/95 and like 6 AM and them talking about the line moving across the region. Fun times

It wouldn’t be aeration and seed season here if it wasn’t dry.

I know a lot of this discussion is tongue and cheek, but given the high probability of above normal precip this winter, the potential for a couple of nasty / disruptive Nor'easters is on the table! Wall to wall snow cover! NO! But multiple big eastern US and East Coast storm events will produce some significant threats; including interior CT... Marginal temps for sure, but dynamic events nonetheless...

I was curious about this and went back to check. Fall 2015 was actually dry in the area. Not drastically, but modestly BN each month. So I looked at Fall 1997 and 1982 also. Sept 97 was pretty dry and it got wetter as fall progressed with a wet November. 82 was more of a mixed bag with some variation between the airports but you could say average-ish regionally. For more modest ninos, fall 2018 was a deluge. Fall 2014 slightly dry, fall 2009 mixed month by month, and fall 2002 was wet. So maybe the nino=wet fall correlation is mostly in our heads from more typical ninos. With the tiny sample size of strong/super ninos, a dry September at least would be in-family.

100% that’s the case per much slower August warming than models had indicated plus models are trending down likely in reaction to that. See post above. Check out the ground truth with the latest OISST RONI the last 3 weeks: flat! CDAS ONI: flat last 3 weeks!

this area had a derecho in july 97 and it was one of my spark events

NW of Route 2

You can tell this hurricane season is a lost cause because half of wx Twitter is "X hurricane made landfall on this date 13 years ago"

Union north?

Then we are in agreement

Thanks. Wow, your reduction of RONI peak (tri) to +2.4 to +2.6 is a good bit below my latest RONI prog of ~+2.8 and is only slightly, if any, above the record of +2.4 from 1982-3! That would be way below some still current model progs of +3.3 to +3.5 for tri RONI! They’re likely going to bust way too high as it looks now. Your latest progged ONI tri peak of only +2.7 to +2.9 compares to some ONI tri peaks still near +4.0! Ray and all, check out the following large cooling adjustments on the CFSv2 for RONI monthlies: 7/22-31: Aug was +2.35 7/26-8/4: Aug fell to +1.9; Sep +3.0 8/5-14: Sep fell to +2.85; Oct +3.65; Nov +3.75 8/15-24: Sep fell even more to +2.5; Oct fell to +3.3; Nov fell to +3.5 The trend is clearly down.

Definitely not interior CT.

I can see our last 90 occuring during this time frame. I think we easily hit 90 and high dews at the hot spots. Then hopefully kick summer out-good riddance.

This totally sounds like a Yogi Berra quote

Phillies/Birds. Summer is over, done, a "has been", kaput, no chance, winter school closings mid-November, fill up the snow blower... 74F/DP 61F

Don’t see anyway possible of your snowy interior SNE winter

Prep this

79/57 at 12:40. Amazing

Personally here I am prepping for an all time record low snowfall season

yet here we are out to the 25th and we're bouncing around 17

*Almost* unanimous model support for *some* development but it is apparent this system has serious hurdles ahead of it. There is likely a window for development/strengthening over next few days, but then it hits a wall of shear, so options at that time are dissipation or weakening. Beyond that, location will be everything. If the system survives into the SW basin, there could possibly be an area of lower shear allowing for development as it likely recurves. If the system goes into Caribbean, it will be heading towards its grave. You're starting to see even the GFS back off on its latest run to a more realistic scenario given the harsh conditions ahead of the system. I am fairly confident this becomes a named storm but I do not think it has much of chance to be a long-tracked hurricane, and it likely won't have much window to intensify at all unless it makes it through the TUTT intact. Probably looking a weak, sheared TS for awhile

September will have a heat wave