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Why were people saying the euro trended south? It looks like it if anything remained the same and eroded the wedge faster especially on eastern side

For comparison. Its just snowfall.

I remember in 1994 there was moderate to heavy rain for a good part of the day with temps in the low 20s

A decent chance, if guidance holds as is, definitely a 60%+

that's eps 06z run i just highlighted it for us

Yeah, its frigid to start. The floor for this storm is super high. The mix discussion is only relevant for those who want to maximize any snowfall from redevelopment. and mainly in SE sections.

is that your thinking and map creation ? Mt. Hollly has no mention of sleet that far north - IMO that graphic is less useful than a snowfall map at this point

LETS GO. In other news, I hear something about some ice this weekend. Maybe alot

All good model trends.... can't ask for much more as this point. Much of Ohio is in the game for a significant storm. Hopefully no significant changes on today's runs... nice to have some wiggle room for a change.

Imagine taking the Pope over 30 seconds of actually looking at the model... Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

Good morning, all. NAM is running. Lets keep track on this 12z suite.

I’m ready to get hurt again

Beyond disappointed with the trends on this one, given what was being shown 2 days ago. will still enjoy what falls, hope for less freezing rain, and the upside is it does stick around for a while. Will continue to hope that the afternoon models trend colder.

As the LWX AFD mentioned, I'd use the 10:1 instead of the Kuchera for now. Even though most of the initial thump will have good ratios, towards the end, it'll get closer to the gray area, probably leading to somewhat wetter snow and smaller ratios.

It'll probably show that up until 4 days out and then go

eps 0z run shows snow changing to sleet around Mahopac, NY and south!

It’s at the end and the damage was already done.

FWIW can extrapolate to CT

I’ll start the thread.

I keep looking at the NWS US map and shaking my head. Once NE gets winter storm watches, nearly two-thirds of the country will have watches or warnings because of this storm. And it goes on for at least several days. I haven't been this excited for winter weather in a long, long time.

why and where ? and what evidence do you have to back up that statement other than warm model runs 3 days in advance of the storm ?

Rule of thumb: not in the bullseye, cry foul. I have a chance to see the most single-storm snowfall in my life so I am just sitting back and waiting Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

If you pound it into the ground to the 6" mark you'll enjoy watching a lot more!

And when I mention warmer it’s at the end but as I said earlier, It was the 06z euro and it only got as far as LI.

Kind of a mixed bag. Seemed colder with the initial thump, and a bit warmer along coast when the secondary got cranking. ^regarding 6z Euro AI.