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Lock her in!!

AiGFS was colder than 18z at least at 700, fwiw

Intense and quick hitter would be fine.

Yea these models are getting much much wetter. We are about to get smacked real good. Better get that ice melt!

I have seen so many snow events that were suppose to transition to rain/mix but temps just don't rise like modeled... Shallow cold is hard to model

GFS is just as good for RVA as last run. Even a little better.

Kuchie crush job

It sure did, as expected with it sitting on its own.

Bufkit

Oh, I never trust the GFS. I know it's going to pull the football.

Temperatures may go slightly above freezing for a few hours, but quickly go below again after sunrise.... The high temperature may occur in the middle of the night....

Altoona’s never won anything, ever.

Thats just because I am a troll. I do hope the GFS scores a coup though. And I do see a slight chance this can be salvaged. We have a ton of cold in place when this kicks off.

Can you share link? Thanks!

I'm exaggerating a little. Obv the model is important, but DA is more important. It was a stupid idea to take on a DA system written in c++ and coded mainly by people outside the field. Most people in this profession are old, they aren't going to learn that shit. And it was effort and money that could've just gone into adding more ensemble members or doing an ensemble of 4dvars like the Euro. But they had to have the shiny object oriented gamer software

Yeah I mean I guess if we see those features strengthen/weaken again at 6z then perhaps it is a trend. But hard to tell that right now

Ice chances in parts of Haywood (as usual) are decreasing. Wishing no lights out for anyone. Gotta keep my Mom on her bipap ventilator.

Pardon this banter, but to a layperson, it seems all these models are worthless.

QPF continuing to increase...

Yea the ice area is likely shifting to climo regions. The wish casting mostly for Raleigh. Verbatim still an ice storm but worst of it is clearly heading to climo

So much banter when models have barely changed. Every few miles or couple degrees is a bust. Save it for X or somewhere else and let people who know what they’re talking about share.

Yeah it looks like it's amping a bit more. I don't know if this depiction survives even another small nudge like that.

Its going to freeze any runoff quickly and roads will remain treacherous

Thats manageable. 1-2" of ice is not.