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Not only is it damn hard for Mid Atlantic to get snow, but we can't even get that damn reaper to get up off of the damn couch, get that jelly donut out of his demonic face, and put on that murder garment and come reap us up because it hasnt even snowed in YEARS here in the Mid Atlantic! And we are ALL on the LEDGE!

pax i long time no speak, i think you're going to be in the bullseyes, you could get 7 inches tomorrow

3.25"

AmWx needs to have a get together in the Snow Belts and let Ji personally experience 6 inch an hour snow, watch that wind blow those huge dendrites around like dust! Sit on a beach chair and watch that snow pile up real fast! Bring a truckload of IPA's too!

I am frackin' JEALOUS!

If the blocking and 50/50 being advertised actually develop over suppression may be our biggest potential fail mode. Hopefully one of those big cutoffs can slide under the ridge out west and time up well.

Brother it just fuckin snowed in the last 24 hours.

Here is a spreadsheet I have tracked in my backyard since 2001

0z GFS. lol

3 5080 rtx

One thing to watch for later today: The NAM and RGEM end the event by mid or late morning for everyone west of the Bay, while the GFS and some HRRR cycles have precip ending by late morning but then bring another round of snow for DC and points east later in the afternoon.

Seriously. I'm baffled by he expectation that we should lock in a solution at 240 hours and have every consecutive deterministic cycle not waiver in the slightest.

@weathafellais still posting here. Check the SNE forum. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/profile/79-weathafella/ So is Randy: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/profile/9-stormtracker/

of course prior to this i knew that ensembles were better than ops at d5+. but half the time people don't give a shit about what i say, so if i introduce a red tagger maybe they'll listen? idk man,

Prior to this you were not aware that ensembles were dramatically more valuable than OP runs 8-10 days out? Bruh. WAY too many posters in this thread - many of whom SHOULD know better - acting shocked and despairing about variable OP outcomes over a week away. Come on, folks.

Another good place is the Lake Effect Snow Belts. Watertown's getting Janu-Buried in 4 feet of fresh snow!

Dude it’s a holiday weekend please go out to WV and hike in the snow

33andRain focuses pretty heavily on the Northeast and hates if it's anything but snow. Ironic name actually. But they have simmered done a bit since going to Discord only. Wxsphere is pretty laid back and covers most regions, but I would say it likely has the most posts of nearly all the boards for the Midwest and lake effect regions. Looked at TriStateWeather but never really got to involved on that board.

Cow pasture trail in cranberry wilderness WV. Absolutely beautiful country out there. Took 64 westbound on the way there and then punched through the mountains on the way back both took a little over 2 hours and 30 minutes. I think it might be one of my favorite spots as the trail I did was in a frost hollow which gave the lower parts/marsh a near tundra feel which is reflected in its vegetation. I plan to return there to hike some other trails hopefully this winter though no matter what I plan to revisit the trail I did in all 4 seasons. I also ran into a nice local feller who showed me the secrets of “trees on stilts” in the woods with his two huskies trailing as companions. Also had the luxury of sun which was unexpected but welcome! Not sure which tools to use to forecast for that microclimate of the ridge-line because they all seem to be consistently wrong. Frankly the whole microclimate astounds me as even 6 miles out from the trailhead it’ll be spotty snow otg before climbing into 3-4+ inches while even hiking another 3 miles into the woods you reach 6+! I’ll post some more pictures tomorrow.

Spending less time looking at the models can help. I find the more I focus on whatever the weather frustration is, the worse it gets. So maybe limiting your time until we are actually in 5 day range may help

Nowcast

Here is your Nino look

Anyone else creating local models. ;(

Things will get better. Mid Atlantic is way overdue for a big snow over the entire sub. You guys have been 'paying the piper' for years and years. That lazy sadistic son of a bytch is bloated and its high time he gave some up, in the form of a wild crazy March 1993-magnitude blizzard over the Mid Atlantic.

The gfs ensembles are equally trash. The whole suite should be aborted