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Snowing moderately to heavily here in Bayside, Queens. Mesoscale discussion mentions rates of 1-2” per hour. We definitely have that now, but sleet is on NYC’s doorstep. Certainly wasn’t supposed to sleet this early. Congrats to the Nam, we could have actually hit 8” if it snowed like this for most of the night. I’d cut totals in half at this rate. Reminds me of the early February 2025 storm where NYC and Long Island got 3-6” but it was a sleet and ice storm in New Jersey. Gfs lol

Steady snow in the UWS, a bit of sleet mixed in at times

i used to have some pretty epic battles in there lol.

The event is not over. And bust is harsh because snow forecasts are always difficult. That said, I'm not sure what people were looking at. NAM and ECM signaled the northeast shift with the mid-level lows north of Lake Ontario and surface low into WNY. Then the HRRR continuing to trend right to go time made it clear. It should have been pretty obvious unless you were willfully deluding yourself.

Glad we decided not to go to the city ….

It’s VERY slippery. I almost just wiped out in the crosswalk wearing hiking boots.

Taking its sweet time getting to HFD and NE

Thunder sleet!

1 hour in officially. 2.9"

I think I'm too low up here.. gonna need a bigger boat

Topography .

This discussion got buried quick in the other OBS thread so I figured I’d post it here too Mesoscale Discussion 2276 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0541 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025 Areas affected...Upstate NY to eastern Long Island...including parts of southern New England Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 262341Z - 270545Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow bands will spread/develop southeast across upstate NY toward southern New England over the next few hours. Snow rates of 1-1.5"/hr are expected. DISCUSSION...Low-amplitude short-wave trough is progressing southeast across western NY/PA early this evening. Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a notable midlevel vort max southwest of Syracuse, and this is reflected well in radar data. Multiple heavy snow bands have developed ahead of this vort max, strongly influenced by low-level warm advection, extending across upstate NY into the lower Hudson Valley. Boundary layer moistening supports this with dew points now rising into the mid teens (F) where snow rates are increasing. Over the next few hours snow rates are expected to increase downstream across western CT and Long Island, largely in response to this well-defined short wave digging toward the northern Middle Atlantic. Snow rates of 1-1.5"/hr can be expected prior to the short wave passage. ..Darrow.. 12/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

But the mid-level mesoscale feature in NY! It just has to propagate to NZW!

NYC has succumb to the sleet monster Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

This is the nyc metro area discussion forum. Not the mount holly discussion. I am specifically discussing how just because the nam nailed one area and completely failed in another doesnt mean its worth any more weight than another model that failed here and nailed down there. That argument literally makes no sense and its just pessimistic nonsense by people who are (rightfully) upset ahout their snow not happening.

Barely snowing here in Lindenhurst, eyeing maybe 1.5" on the ground so far

Switched back to snow sleet and the Long Island radar shows the snow line collapsing south…

There you have it. For me it ranks right up there with the 83 blizzard and the 96 blizzard even though it wasn't a blizzard. Waking up the next morning with the ice glazing off the trees.TONS of ice, door locks frozen, everything frozen and this shit lasted for a while. Top three weather events in my life...

There were multiple ice storms that winter. It was awful because the state of PA ran out of road salt and consumer halite. I remember having to go on a work trip down to Baltimore that January (by Amtrak) but drove to 30th St. Station. I did my usual down Lincoln Drive and was ready to go up the ramp to City Line Ave to get to the Schuylkill Expressway (figuring that would be treated) and had KYW on where I heard a traffic report about the poor conditions there, so kept straight onto the Kelly Drive instead, going slow. Later found out that they had to close the Expressway due to cars and trucks stuck on the exit/entrance ramps unable to move due to the ice (and those ramps freeze before the roads). I think people were trapped for like 8 hours. Thankfully it was all rain down in Baltimore and they had plenty of halite in the stores, so I was able to buy a couple bags to bring back for my mom. That winter, her front walk ended up being the only one done to the cement because no one else had salt.

Enjoy the snow friends in CT/ W MA! Got a graupel / ice pileup going on down here my ways in NJ, wishing I was in Danbury where I’ve gone hiking from a couple times for past Feb bdays! Have fun / stay safe!

At this rate even the NAM will be too high for MBY LOL - will be tough to hit 2/3” at this rate

Yes please!!

As wacky as the NAM can be sometimes, it really does a good job with these mid level warm noses more often than not.

@Ji My god it’s all sleet. 10 minutes of parachutes then now full on ice blasting. Everyone please pour one out for the NWS 8.4 inch prediction as this may be a historic bust.

3.25 inches in Yorktown after lull, back to solid moderate snow now.