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14z hrrr is pretty excited about tomorrow’s snow prospects.

Looking at roughly 3.25-3.5” here about 15 miles NW of Bethlehem.

Its the AI-ENS thats #1...AIFS is much lower down the list

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Actually coming down at a decent clip now

29F moderate snow 3.25” the flakes went from large to smaller in size nice snowfall

One of those rare occasions where going with the model that showed the most snow paid off.

Just tomorrow

The pattern is there. We’ll have blocking for once.

Yeah...best precip is north of that 850-925 slot. They'll moisten back up down there as that weak low/mid level boundary pushes eastward.

Said differently, it’s like it took the rest of guidance two days to catch up to the EC AIFS… I’m able to say that bc it had the right depiction and stayed on it….

26 moderate snow

At this point I feel might as well be hopeful. It's going to do what it's going to do anyway, and if it doesn't work out life goes on.

Is this both days or just Sundays?

Heavy snow Muncy valley pa What a bow hunt

I still need to check out the Sphere, but prices aren’t very fun. I’ve got one good snowstorm in me and then I’ll be ready for a warmup, even if that starts in February, though will accept strategic cold through March where it actually snows.

Snow coming down moderately. Feels good to see winter again.

It started off as snow here, but has transitioned to mostly graupel. Areas with mulch and dirt are white. Probably safe to call it a .1", but haven't ventured out to measure. Temps dropped from 37 to 34 with the precip.

Fantastic. I just did a quick unofficial deck measurement of 1.5". I know some mocked Albanys wide range in accumulations but they mentioned elevation enhancement so it's good to see that playing out.

Hasn’t the EC AIFS had highest verification scores as of late…? I’m not sure why anyone is doubting it against the other globals. Having that 32F surface isotherm dancing around our heads was a pretty easy tell we could get a good event here despite all the short term model waffling, across the other guidance. The EC AIFS also kicked azz bc look at the past two days of runs—-so consistent.

Lmao

That would help us I think

Nice summary. Hoping most of us can score before Fab Feb. Signals are there but will the fun be too far east for west/middle? That's my main concern. Obviously, with the WAA and dry air issues, no plateau chase for me this morning (kids are pissed off but what I can I say/do?), so hopefully I can do some traveling next week as needed. Sunny 30s is the same level as cold rain to me. Plus, kids don't want to be out in the cold unless they can build a snowman. Hard to find words, especially for young people in describing why this winter has not cooperated. Bottom Line: In the past ten years, only 2016-17 and 2019-20 have been worse than what we've seen through 1/17/26, at least for middle. Yeah, I know the famous winter of 2014-15 got off to a slow start; however, I highly doubt we see a redux of that February 1 - March 15 time frame.

I can concur with that. I just measured 2.5” in the center of the city. Visibility has been about 3/8 mile for two hours now.

Bouta drive up to 400’ and see what’s shaking.