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The storm track is really not conducive for a ton of rain for us

Chris, you are correct, ice is burning through this, temps at my shop 30F now, ground temp, different story, usual side streets, walks stairs etc, slick, city out, bus routes etc. Lol need snow event! Going through salt over the last week!

2 hour delay here in Winsted, had to drive my kid into school in Torrington, damn near fell down the deck stairs but roads are fine, sitting at 30.1 with drizzle zr

2001 and 2023 are also analogs. Does this guarantee a big come back in terms of snow? Nope...maybe we still get boned, but what I can tell you is that there isn't going to be some exotic +7 monthly departure in February just because the first half of winter was cold. I am pretty confident in that SSW, but IF that fails...then I could see warm March...but doubtful. February is not going to be very warm in the mean...maybe it ends up like January only in reverse order (cold start, warm up later), but it won't be a lost cause.

One of only two Cat 5. NESIS storms. Bonus points if you can name the other one without looking it up.

Wish we could get more of them this Winter.

March 2018 is the crown jewel of this kind of warming, everyone likes to bring that absurd MJO pulse up haha

Low of 37 and heavy fog in the valleys. A solid .015” in the gauge but not seeing any evidence it rained. While all surfaces are wet, it has that classic heavy fog/dew combo look, so not putting anything in the books.

That may not have been the case since the anomalies were based on 1991-2020 means which were the warmest on record. Notice the warm departures in the Southwest were sufficient for many sites to record their warmest December on record. Those warm departures were only lower due to the much warmer 1991-2020 normals. The cold departures to the north would also be smaller based of the previous colder 30 year means. Climatologist49 ‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬ Follow December 2025 temperature ranking (since 1895). A lot of the West had their warmest December on record and nearly everywhere out west had a top 5 warmest December. 10:26 PM · Jan 1, 2026 Everybody can reply

The 6z GFS was a beautiful run showing coastal potential on the 16th.

Yeah. Nice January thaw coming up. Lol on Goff Law sponsoring NBC's weather graphic with an embedded ad.

That’s my close #2 best week in my opinion. The historic first storm in 96 places it just above 2010 for me. Either way, they are a clear #1 & #2 for best snow weeks in the last 30 years or more.

...well they other day someone was touting "revisions" were going to need to be made to the upcoming AN temp period forecast...

I expect the models start to dry up today like they normally do 24 hours out.

This x1,000,000.

This would be the biggest storm for us in a while.

The overnight Op runs are coming around to the idea of a moisture laden storm that rides up the coast. The 0z Euro liked the 18th, but missed just to our south this run. Plenty of time & potential in this period.

What about February 5-10 2010?

It's not logic at all.....it's fear-mongering neurosis triggered by unsavory weather outcomes of the past.

An easy way to classify the NESIS storms in the list that I posted going back to 1995-1996 is that they are what is called benchmark storm tracks out near 40°/70°. We live in a part of the country that requires Atlantic moisture in order to achieve our heaviest snowstorms. When the primary storm track to our west like since 2018-2019, it results in less snow for our area. From 2010 to 2018 the primary storm track was located to our Southeast allowing plenty of Atlantic moisture to result in much heavier snowstorms. Those coastal storms also got a moisture boost from the Gulf Stream warming about 7° since the 1980s when the major snows were less frequent. The one common denominator in our snowfall since the 1990s has been shorter periods of productive storm tracks for our area. So in order for our area to reach 25” to 30” of snowfall since then we needed heavy coastal snowstorms. The simple math is that if we get shorter snowy periods, each period needs to be maximized in order for the season to get closer to 25”. Prior to the 1990s there were several seasons that didn’t get really heavy snowstorms but had extended periods of light to moderate snows. So a series of light to moderate events could get us to close to normal on the season. This hasn’t been the case over the last 30 years. Every 25”+ season had at least 25” of snow over this period featured at least one 10-20” or 20-30” snowfall event for a portion of the area from EWR to ISP. Some years like 2013 we had a 30-40” single event. When we have a dominant Northern Stream and storm track close to our area and to our west the ceiling is closer to 4-8” and generally under 10” for most spots like we saw twice this past December. This December had the best maximized southeast moving clipper tracks that portions of our area have ever seen for the month. We can notice the storm track pattern shifting as we moved into January. It’s more back to recent years through the Great Lakes but not the southward diving clipper tracks. In recent years the maximum snowfall on these tracks have been mostly 1-3” or 2-4” type events and not the multiple 4-8” style events we had in December. So my guess going forward is that we will need at least one 10-20” maximum accumulation coastal storm in any part of the OKX zones for any of the major sites from EWR to ISP to reach 25”. But even then not all of the sites would be guaranteed to reach 25” like we saw in 2022 when the coastal tracks favored Long Island and not NJ. So more of a necessary but not always sufficient situation.

Great memories from the Blizzard of 96 back when I was a freshman in college. That week of weather with the Blizzard dropping 2 feet near Harrisburg, the mid week over performing Clipper that brought a few inches, to the end of week significant coast that brought another foot to the Harrisburg area still stands as the greatest week of weather in my lifetime.

Don't write off early March as a potential prime KU target period....I also can see something pretty substantial in early February.

Only walked my driveway but looked like we were a mix of sleet and ice. Wasn’t a pure glaze, kind of rough?

PIOMASS volume growth has been slow this freezing season, ending 2025 at record low levels. The second low is 12/31/2016, which is hidden under the 2025 line.

24.9° and not doing anything at the moment Seems like it’s been all snow so far since the top layer of snow if still fluff.