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Off and on flurries here today.

It started with CO2 emissions. By itself it warmed the environment (a little bit) but more importantly it kickstarted a positive feedback loop with water vapor, which is also a pretty potent greenhouse gas (albeit not to the extent of CO2 when comparing it molecule by molecule). Warmer temps can hold more water vapor, so the water vapor traps more heat, and the even warmer air can hold even more water vapor, so the additional water vapor traps even more heat, etc., etc., there's your positive feedback loop (also ice melting = less radiational energy reflected = warmer temps, another positive feedback loop). So with the increasing amount of CO2 emissions every year this loop only increases in rate over time. I don't know too much about methane and CFCS so i didn't mention them. It would be much appreciated to tell me more about those greenhouse gases.

Exceeded the forecast high for today. Currently 46 here (41), but we seem to have exceeded the wind, as well.

There are a few of us here that would be happier with warmth and/or rain.

mm... What I want is just as irrelevant. Shit I check out every year at this time. It doesn't mean jack. I. hate. winter. after. Feb 15 With the hypocritical exception of something more extraordinary ...which I have elaborated/admitted all this many times in the past am morally fine with it. LOL It is actually entering a frustrating time of year for me. Because objectively, we don't get warmth to stick around here until... 3 weeks in late July for that matter. Aprils? H'ho man. I tell ya, I'm not that far off from my mortgage being paid ... at which time, I will be free to scope out salvation residences during this region's spring climate rectum

A minor difference in the northern stream is all it takes for more robust precip to make it's way into our subforum. Gotta watch for more phasing like the 0z AI euro if we want to see more qpf. 6z and 12z took small steps away from that.

The nam being the furthest north is always a red flag

Man, the Eastern Shore is gonna be so surprised when they get that 2 feet of snow!

Awesome snow maps. On your site, how many have you done, and how far back?

@psuhoffmanyou have great info.. You write so much about this.. I would tell ya to gather that info, put it in a blog with sections and just point to it.. You have to be sick of saying the same things. Additionally, warming has happened. I am west of Rt15 by a good bit and now at almost 500 feet, this seems to be the rain/snow line many times or just west to the Blue Ridge. It is the sad reality for snow lovers. We will not get into arguments why.. It is observable and has/is happening And we should note, we are super sensitive here in the Mid Atlantic to just a degree or 2 of temperatures. So it matters more than maybe many other places..

Yes, I know, but enough ppl has access or were looking at AFDs outside mainstream media to run w/ that and hype. Yes, this was long before FB, Twitter, and tidbit quotes going viral instantly, esp. to the general public. But within wx circles, chat forums, and list-servs, this was a hot topic. I recall it well! IIRC, that March 2001 event was I think the first time the MSM went nuts 5+ days out for the "storm to end all storms" PHL-BOS. A watershed event for pre-storm hype! The big cities largely missed out, even BOS, but just 10 mi NW in Woburn, I had 23" of snow, and it was super wet that entire 23"! Never had I seen so high vertical snow "walls" on power lines (wind was next to nothing), and never has so much snow in a single storm that was 100% wet. You'd dig into the snow pack, and you'd see a blue tinge, esp. noticeable while it was still cloudy That's when I learned that high-moisture content snow result in this. So "KEWL!"

No, I'm making fun of your map, lol. Hope that helps clear things up! Since I never expected snow from this system, I have no real feelings about it whatsoever.

We deep winter

Boutta hit that half foot of snow in Shenandoah fr

Euro AI with a couple of decent looks over the next 8 days or so.

Don’t worry we’ll have yellows and reds with spring storms very soon.

12z Euro precip improved for the LSV at 12z vs. 6z.

Jesus you see that low in the plains and almost think ptype issues, but nope….stein. Blows.

The 12z HREF: Deducting one category would still produce a 1"-2" snowfall for the New York City area and its nearby suburbs and a coating to an inch across most of Westchester and Rockland Counties. That is largely in line with the overall model guidance. I suspect that there will be an area with 2"-4" snowfalls in central New Jersey. The 12z NAM appears to be a high outlier overall.

Quick question for you but are the models getting the high peaks of our mountains correct and if so why aren’t they snowing? Hypothetically they should be 6-8 degrees cooler than surrounding valleys and snow but they don’t seem to show that

We’re all succumbing to Tip’s Hadley Cell.

It really isn’t. It’s just math. The math equation states there are three factors which influence earths surface temperature. 1. Solar forcing (sunspots vary it by .001% so sure .001% of our warming is natural best case) 2. Albedo 3. Atmospheric absorption. Now, only molecules which undergo a vibrational transformation when impacted with solar radiation of a certain wavelength are greenhouse gasses (hence why nitrogen or oxygen in their own don’t increase heat). Can you guess those molecules? CO2, methane, cfcs, h20, etc. now what molecules do we pump into the atmosphere? It’s not political.

I’m probably getting more snow today that I will from this thing Good luck to the south coast

'meh-vent' is a great term that I wish I came up with.