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There are quite a few NAM like solutions in the GEFS members .

WB 6Z ICON also ticked west.

NWS snippet A high energy but low predictability pattern looms for the back half of the weekend. The pattern is forecast to be very amplified, but in flux as a deep upper-level low digs out of the Gulf of Alaska inducing a downstream ridge-building event over the western U.S. This pattern amplification in the vicinity of western North America comes with low predictability due to data sparse regions over the North Pacific. Meanwhile, a pair of downstream upper lows interact/merge over Maritime Canada, with inherent low predictability with two cutoff lows interacting. If the upstream ridge-building event takes place a bit further west near 120 W longitude on Saturday, downstream trough amplification would be favorable for phasing over the mid MS Valley into the OH/TN Valleys Saturday night. A subsequent low track hugging the coast would become more likely in this scenario, aided by downstream blocking and a potential source of cold air given the upper lows over Maritime Canada and surface high pressure attempting to ridge into northern New England. There is also an appearance of an inverted trough signature in a subset of model guidance over the last couple cycles, given interaction between a more amplified northern stream wave and a bit more distant offshore southern stream low. This could factor into precipitation amounts and placement. After reviewing the 00z model guidance suite, some subtle consistency has been noted although subtle uncertainty remains. Most of the models has a low tracking up from GA/AL toward the NC coast and off the Delmarva coast during the late Saturday night into late Sunday timeframe. The question remains in the proximity toward the coast along with cold air availability, and the overall scope of the precip shield pending the placement/intensity of the system. 25 to 50 miles could make a huge difference between seeing little to no wintry precip or impactful precip, especially for those east of the mountains where the confidence remains low due to thermal issues especially below elevations of 1500 feet. The 00z GFS/GEFS solutions have come down a tad, but still produce measurements on the order of 10+" of snow over a large chunk of the area. Meanwhile, the 12z EPS ensembles came up some, but at much more conservative levels which align with deterministic runs of the NAM, RDPS, GDPS, GEM, CMC, EURO/EURO AIFS, and UKMET. The latest NBM also came up a bit and aligns with the majority compared to the GFS/GEFS outliers, especially along and east of I-95. With that said, the 6/12z model suites should put the remaining puzzle pieces together as we will sit 60 hours from the event. Three scenarios remain: 1) The phase of all of these upper level features occurs too late, with low development offshore and too far southeast. 2) Similar to scenario 1, but an inverted trough on the back side of the low brings snow to eastern portions of the region. 3) Low develops closer to shore and strengthens along Delmarva Peninsula, resulting in the most snow for our areas. We still remain in the "wait and see" period with this storm, so just take precautions now, should the worst case scenario play out. Having a preparedness kit stocked up is never a bad idea.

WB 6Z 12K NAM and not done on the shore.

Wow 977 low

Rgem is nice

I'm almost at a point with just how arrogant some local and national meteorologist have become combined with endless whining about models where Im praying for a once in a generation bust either way, just so it pushes out some of these people due to ridicule, installs some humility, and forces people to use model runs like a tool instead of like heroin. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Rgem looks good

Rgem coming in further west and north. Rains in SNJ.

Why would Virginia Beach be cold enough for this to be all snow? Hopefully just the long range NAM F'n with us.

Icon NW

Nam at range precip field quite a bit wester on this run. Looks like it’s in GFS camp…gives Norfolk 30 inches lol

Probably not a bad idea... I've got to say, I've always been a go big or go home snow person. This time even moreso. We're down to barely a 2" snowpack, and the rain we had Wednesday afternoon/evening washed most of the salt residue off the roads. At this point, if we can't get 8-12+, then I'd prefer the NAM's no snow showing.

There hasn't been any lightning strikes detected for quite a while, but it looks like a lot of the sub is getting some decent rain atm.

Id follow my rule with this one of not taking any model and forecast seriously till 5pm Saturday Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

This afternoon the nam barely had the low to the NC/GA border Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

It tried, but then moved east-northeast off of Virginia Beach.

Haha we have less than an inch forecast. Im not really going to worry about forcast amounts till Saturday evening, which is the earliest I expect accurate forecasts for this seductive teaser storm. I'm much more enamoured and enjoying the variance show the weather models are putting on. It really started to get boring a couple years ago when it seemed like everything was locked in with storms before they even got in NAM range. This hobby is alot more enjoyable when the possibility of monumental busts within the final 48 hours have a bit of credibility. I'll take a couple times of having the rugged pulled out from under me the last second for just a chance to experience the magic of going to bed expecting an inch and waking up at dawn to 6", thunder and a white out and seeing the shell shocked local weather men like the one experience I had as a kid. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

32 inches in Virginia Beach ? Yeah I'm not going to take that run serious. It will however keep me up for at least another hour.

NAM looking like a middle of the road outcome between the gfs and euro (coastal wise) at first glance?

Love me fantasy NAM storms.

Hey-we all know how bad the Tidewater’s been lacking and how much they need another one while we get cirrus.

Mid Atlantic has been getting more coastals than us up here.

If that pans out i quit.

Stalls too far south to get a GFS result, but gets solid coastal action into the cities .