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Timing sucks. Too bad it couldn’t come through 4-6 hrs later. It slowed a bit too.

Marginal…for now…very interesting nowcast coming up. Northeast... A somewhat complex severe weather scenario exists for the Northeast, from Sunday morning into the afternoon hours. Scattered strong thunderstorms (perhaps a remnant MCS) may cross from southeastern Ontario and progress toward the Hudson Valley region during the morning. Should this occur, convective restrengthening is possible along the leading edge of outflow over the Mid Atlantic, with strong to potentially severe wind gusts likely. However, if convection moving into the Northeast by Sunday morning is less robust, convective re-intensification may be more likely farther north into southern New England. A more focused severe threat would be highly dependent on the placement and evolution of earlier convection/MCS morphology across Ontario during the late Day 1 period, which currently has low predictability. Despite weak vertical wind shear, of concern is the eastward advection of a modest EML into the Northeast, which may boost MLCAPE well over 3000 J/kg (perhaps over 4000 J/kg locally). Higher severe probabilities may be needed if confidence in the placement and/or timing of more organized convection increases.

Newark I think hit 90 before 2PM

2PM EWR: 89 PHL: 89 JFK: 89 New Brnswck: 88 BLM: 87 LGA: 87 TTN: 87 JFK: 86 TEB: 86 JFK: 86 NYC: 85 ISP: 84

Perfect. Thank you very much Don!

we just hit 90 here at 2:30 pm

We just hit 90 here at 2:30 pm

I was not expecting to be in a MRGL tomorrow, and most CAMs show no threat to our area at all, *but* there is a scenario in which the MCS that move into upstate NY (and possibly northern New England) late tonight leaves an outflow boundary over northeast PA or central NY, and a new convective complex initiates there and races south-southwest. The idea is best represented by today's 12Z HiResW ARW and to a lesser extent by the HiResW ARW2. It's certainly not likely at this point, and even if it happened, it might die as it arrives, but there is certainly at least some small potential for a surprise event, especially for northeast MD.

86 just after 2pm. Not sure its going to make it to 90 today.

Car Thermometer.

Detail on those other 2 relatively high elevation stations in Chester County where heat waves are so rare. West Grove with data back to 2009 has also only recorded 5 heatwaves - occurring in 2011 /2012 (2x) / 2013 and the last time back in 2018. Also over at Atgen with data back to 2012 - only 3 times in the last 13 summers have they recorded a heat wave - those being in 2013 /2023 and 2024.

should be one for Nassau County too

and it's hard to believe it did not hit 100 at JFK in between hours on this date, when it was 99 on a SSW wind and then the wind switched to WSW and it was 99 for two more hours.....

Perfect. Thank you very much Don!

Did you see what I posted about June 26, 1952? Sorry to say this about models, but they aren't very smart Look at this from a climate history perspective. June 26, 1952 at JFK -- 99 degrees on a SSW wind at 13 mph!! https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KJFK/date/1952-6-26 12:00 PM 94 °F 75 °F 54 % SW 18 mph 0 mph 29.78 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 1:00 PM 95 °F 74 °F 50 % SW 17 mph 0 mph 29.76 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 2:00 PM 98 °F 73 °F 44 % SW 15 mph 0 mph 29.75 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 3:00 PM 99 °F 72 °F 42 % SSW 13 mph 0 mph 29.75 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 4:00 PM 92 °F 73 °F 54 % SSW 13 mph 0 mph 29.75 in 0.0 in Fair 5:00 PM 99 °F 68 °F 36 % WSW 20 mph 0 mph 29.73 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 6:00 PM 99 °F 69 °F 38 % WSW 15 mph 0 mph 29.73 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 7:00 PM 94 °F 74 °F 52 % SW 12 mph 0 mph 29.74 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy

This sounds remarkably similar to the environmental circumstances within which we had that severe event here 2 weeks ago.. Same time of day... seemingly nil SBCAPE ... but a pocket of EML was tapped by a small cell that then nuked Although surface based instability progs at that time of day are essentially nil, steepening lapse rates aloft support nearly 1500 J/kg of MUCAPE with increasing effective shear to around 40-45 kt, a shear/instability space which could support embedded elevated supercells above more stable sfc layer.

on a side note, I can't believe it didn't hit 100 at JFK on this date when it was 99 on a SSW wind and then the wind switched to WSW and it was 99 for two more hours one would think that JFK hit 100 in between hours.....

More detail on the other Chester County sites where heat waves are rare. At West Grove with data since 2009 there have also only been 5 heat waves. With those occurring in 2011 / 2012 (2x) / 2013 and the last time in 2018. Also over in Atglen with records since 2012 - only 3 heat waves in the last 13 summers occurring in 2013 / 2023 and 2024.

Did you see this that I just posted lol Sorry to say this about models, but they aren't very smart Look at this from a climate history perspective. June 26, 1952 at JFK -- 99 degrees on a SSW wind at 13 mph!! and it's hard to believe it did not hit 100 at JFK in between hours on this date, when it was 99 on a SSW wind and then the wind switched to WSW and it was 99 for two more hours..... https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KJFK/date/1952-6-26 12:00 PM 94 °F 75 °F 54 % SW 18 mph 0 mph 29.78 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 1:00 PM 95 °F 74 °F 50 % SW 17 mph 0 mph 29.76 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 2:00 PM 98 °F 73 °F 44 % SW 15 mph 0 mph 29.75 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 3:00 PM 99 °F 72 °F 42 % SSW 13 mph 0 mph 29.75 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 4:00 PM 92 °F 73 °F 54 % SSW 13 mph 0 mph 29.75 in 0.0 in Fair 5:00 PM 99 °F 68 °F 36 % WSW 20 mph 0 mph 29.73 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 6:00 PM 99 °F 69 °F 38 % WSW 15 mph 0 mph 29.73 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 7:00 PM 94 °F 74 °F 52 % SW 12 mph 0 mph 29.74 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy

Sorry to say this about models, but they aren't very smart Look at this from a climate history perspective. June 26, 1952 at JFK -- 99 degrees on a SSW wind at 13 mph!! and it's hard to believe it did not hit 100 at JFK in between hours on this date, when it was 99 on a SSW wind and then the wind switched to WSW and it was 99 for two more hours..... https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KJFK/date/1952-6-26 12:00 PM 94 °F 75 °F 54 % SW 18 mph 0 mph 29.78 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 1:00 PM 95 °F 74 °F 50 % SW 17 mph 0 mph 29.76 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 2:00 PM 98 °F 73 °F 44 % SW 15 mph 0 mph 29.75 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 3:00 PM 99 °F 72 °F 42 % SSW 13 mph 0 mph 29.75 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 4:00 PM 92 °F 73 °F 54 % SSW 13 mph 0 mph 29.75 in 0.0 in Fair 5:00 PM 99 °F 68 °F 36 % WSW 20 mph 0 mph 29.73 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 6:00 PM 99 °F 69 °F 38 % WSW 15 mph 0 mph 29.73 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 7:00 PM 94 °F 74 °F 52 % SW 12 mph 0 mph 29.74 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy

100 likely, 105 not likely, you don't get that kind of heat in June

100 for all us likely on Tuesday

Rather than any model I would much rather rely on climate knowledge and what has happened in the past here. Let the past be your guide to the future as the saying goes.

93 I would say CPK