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  2. HIPPYVALLEY
    Boredom until 2027 severe season?
  3. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  4. bluewave
    Last winter was a weak La Niña and the SSW occurred in late November. This early PV disruption is occurring nearly a month earlier before the vortex fully sets in. Plus it’s forecast to rebound pretty quickly. So the amount of potential cold air is going to be fairly limited this early in the season especially against the record Northern Hemisphere temperatures in association with the historic super El Niño. We didn’t have much success with the two SSWs during a much weaker super El Niño in January 2024 and March 2024. Also the weak PV during January 1998 actually enhanced the warmth when the -AO linked up with the Southeast ridge.
  5. ChescoWx
    No evasiveness just want to see the deeper details and actual figures calculated that support these decades later adjustments to the raw data. I am a numbers guy by training so love digging into the supporting calculations that will support the adjustments.
  6. psv88
    48 overnight
  7. Lucy Pull
    With the way forcing has been setup I’m feeling a warmer version of December 1997 than 2015. All bets off if we pop an eastern ridge and it connects with the Canadian ridge.
  8. MJO812
    No one wants cold now anyway
  9. A-L-E-K
    p typical spready for klot
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it's too early to mean much for us, even if it does result in a colder period.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think I have made it clear that I am skeptical of how impactful this strat warming will be and am more interested in what it may portend later in the season.
  12. weatherwiz
    Was outside with the dog around 8:00 or so last night and was surprised how mild it still was.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's almost as if the climate is warming or something...
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, this a great example of why I keep pointing out that secondary convective node around 130-150W......it fosters some variability. Does it preclude a mild season overall? No.
  15. CoastalWx
    It’s also hard for my hood to get to below 32 before 11/1. Might be similar to ORH although I think I hit it once. Since 2020. I did get to 23 on 10/31/20 with 5” OTG lol.
  16. MJO812
    Nothing is difficult in weather if things line up. I know we didnt have an El Nino the last 2 winters but people were talking in absolutes in October and the winter was different than what many thought. Bam Wx thinks the pattern will be colder as we progress into mid to late November due to the PV taking a beating. Its going to be interesting to see what happens with the PV.
  17. Torchageddon
    The NWS does ranges for forecast temps!? 64-76 wtf
  18. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  19. bluewave
    You need the Pacific to back off in order for that to happen which is difficult with such an historic east based El Niño.
  20. mitchnick
    Weeklies were cold last year and were correct. Not all the time, but more often than not. I specifically recall your posts in that regard.
  21. Today
  22. MJO812
    Weeklies should be taken with a grain of salt passed week 2 but it does show what a weak PV would do.
  23. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  24. weatherwiz
    I don't recall memories of this day (but I do remember 5/29/95 and 7/15/95) but being made aware of this some years later, pretty impressive storm which formed along a backdoor front.
  25. bluewave
    If you are going warm for December than why are you giving the week 3+ weeklies any credence?
  26. Brewbeer
    why do you believe the methodology they have employed is incorrect? is it because it results in a narrative and call for action that you oppose for unspecified reasons? can you provide some reasonable explanation even if you only have 33% of the data? that's an incredible amount of data, surely there MUST be SOMETHING systemic in the methodology you can point to that is scientifically invalid? your continued evasiveness on this issues is boring
  27. Eskimo Joe
    Interesting test case here of the physics vs AI guidance.
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