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It’s not even close. And the GFS is trash, worst model there is. That op run has no GEFS support. This is not going to turn into a snowstorm. This is going to be a miss, calling it now

Look at these two friends getting together at the last minute

GEFS will be interesting i bet some good hits in there. I knew there was something up with this storm i never gave up fully on it, gonna want to see some more tics though and ec to come on board as well

Maybe maybe maybe. Ugggh if this ends up a bare bones scrape or close miss. Such a fragile setup but you'd think at this point the models are starting to have a clue.

I'd love to read Mount Holly's night shift AFD on this one

The last 5 run trend of the GFS is wild, at some point do we see this stop trending? I still think this run is over the top and we see something more like the ICON or Euro, but it's been a long time since we've seen such significant shifts in guidance to produce a *favorable* outcome within 72 hours of an event

Does the GFS solution have supports?

GFS. Lol

Cmc is a miss but much further north than 12z

We have models dropping 6-10” in the city, rain, 1”, and nothing. Never seen something like this before

Gfs went from visiting spring training in Florida to a snowstorm up here.

If that isn't a clear trend, I don't know what is

Models are clearly jumping on the more phased trend.

This storm is different for us due to the phasing; which dramatically increases the chances of decent temperature shifts (either colder or warmer) depending on degree of phasing. Since the NAM continues to trend towards more of a phase, I think it could adjust colder if that trend continues. It should have a better handle on things later tomorrow.

One of the weirdest run ups to a storm in a long time

GFS is a tick or two away from being a full snowstorm here. The model that was furthest south and wanted nothing to do with this storm is now the most aggressive

Gfs is more impressive all around and a lot less flat. If this keeps ticking I can see it being fun on Long Island. Couple more ticks and I might get measurable snow!

Ai Goofus bumped north Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

"Will exceed?" That is unwise to forecast an all-time record storm w/ absolute wording. It is so hard to say "may approach?" That is the more reasonable thing to do, rather than go all out. This sets one up for big failure in the eyes of the public if it does not happen esp, when comparing it to a benchmark storm for a region. The psychological impact here is huge. Was 40-50" explicitly forecast by any model for parts of SNE? Were storm tides forecast to match or exceed the Bliz of 78? Was there a 1055 mb high in place NW of New England w/ a 70 mb plus high/low difference? Was the synoptic pattern over NAMR similar to the Biz of 78, b/c that 500 ridge/trough evolution was exceptional, unlike anything in the KU cases. You not only had a massive cut-off low form just S of New England, but a massive cut off high form at the same time over western Canada. The worst case scenario is the least likely to happen in any given storm situation, so you better have a darn good reason to go for it. The notion "better safe than sorry" is a tired and invalid excuse. Going for worse all the time has real world consequences and impacts, and you will be wrong more often than not. Extraordinary events require extraordinary circumstances.

lol

Quite the trend from 1am - 7pm. South Jersey went from 0 to over a foot in some spots

Slight bump north on Goofus Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

Northern stream is better sampled

AIGFS trend

Did we just get GFS’d??