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That winter was also raging positive QBO

It seems that 2013-14 is a popular analog on social media right now. That the North Pacific SSTs are not similar to those of 2013-14 doesn't phase those speculating. Right now, if the anomalies stay as is, one would be dealing with a weaker Aleutian Low, which teleconnects to milder conditions in the East. Should dual areas of excessive warmth persist, there could be some variability, but again not the kind of consistent cold seen during winter 2013-14. We'll see how things evolve in coming months.

Great analysis. I said this on the Southeast board, but folks rushing to name this haven’t seen a proper nor Easter in awhile! It’s a textbook not Easter and if you look at Water Vapor loop you can see it’s part of a larger ULL centered over the western Carolina’s. Also agree, if this was south of hatteras and over warmer water for longer, you could see it “pinch off” and wrap up into a hybrid system but this is fully frontal at the moment and a very powerful nor Easter. Jennettes pier has now gusted to 65 mph and has recorded gusts over 45 kts for the third straight day. Very impressive system but not tropical

Yeah its like half brown/ green even on the same branches. that makes more sense.

Totally agree with Andy. The only real shot of continental US impacts at this point would come from homebrew off the coast/Gulf or from the Caribbean.

Keep learning

https://x.com/andyhazelton/status/1967948009901109559?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g

Pretty good radar depiction right now of the coastal low.

Rain and wind in Calvert right now. Got pretty wet driving my motorcycle to the gym and then work.

I do not think this is subtropical. It is fully attached to a front and I see no evidence of a warm core, just warm air on eastern side south of a warm front. Also if you watch water vapor loop it is within a broader upper level system centered over WNC. These nor Easter’s can be quite strong and prolonged, as evidenced by winds gusting above 50 on the OBX for the third straight day. The folks jumping on naming this haven’t seen a proper nor Easter in a while! These are fun systems to watch

It’s over increasingly marginal SSTs and doesn’t have a lot of time before it’s either onshore or tucked into the coast. If that boundary weren’t so clear I’d say it has a solid chance of subtropical development, but I just think this one isn’t going to get there. I don’t think the NHC would pull the trigger on that. Not this year at least with them missing/slow to designate two TCs this season. If this were off of Wilmington, I think it’d be a different story given SSTs. It’s firing good convection, but you really want to see it over the center. On radar though the presentation is actually pretty nice with some spiral banding evident. Worth a casual eye in case my analysis is wrong lol.

You know it’s a dry pattern when the main interest is how close the .50 line gets to NYC.

Another dry day over here in W. Central MD. Have noticed an early corn harvest this year. The field behind my house is done, has been for about a couple of weeks. On our walk this past weekend you could see where you would have no problem crossing parts of the Potomac on foot to certain islands. Very shallow in many places. I know weather gets into patterns seems we have been stuck in one for about 3 years now over here. Many days where I have watched hopeful rain coming in only to see it hit the dry dome. Have had a bit more storms break through this year than past. But looking at my weather station have not had any rain since 9 days ago. Rain for me gives a feeling of refresh. And I need a refresh. Going to make some apple crisp now.

While things are slow, I have a basic general question- Can someone explain to me why there is no discussion of the storm off Virginia as tropical or at least subtropical. The analysis, if I am reading it correctly, seems to have it as having a symmetric warm core. What is missing to at have this given a designation? https://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/25091606/11.html Edit: I see it being discussed on the main Tropical thread.

Do you think that this possibly could have properly been classified as a subtropical storm? Is this mainly a baroclinic low but with some tropical characteristics?

Good morning again... 1002A check of tropical tidbits for the 12z/16 NAM 12 and 3K vs reality and the 12z HRRR. 12z/16 NAM suite looks terrible to start... too far south by many many miles. Difficult to believe the initialization of qpf is so bad. EMC needs to check this. In the meantime the 12z HRRR looks like a much better start. Not saying anything about the outcome tomorrow, no different than above but for today... yikes.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave emerging off the west coast of Africa is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible towards the mid to latter part of this week as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph, moving from the eastern to central portion of the tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

But what do you think about the possibility that this also has some tropical characteristics making it subtropical?

hope the euro is right for Thurs morning. going to need it

How did I know you would elicit a wrothless contribution from you.....let me ask you this...say you have a routine that consists of making disparaging remarks to winter enthusiasts on a weather forum while taking a $hit each day...I know, not like any loser would do that, but humor me. Each day, you notice prior to flushing that the log that represents the culimation of your efforts is brown; but this one day it's actually blue. While it's not remarkable that there is yet another log in the toilet after trolling 40/70 online, would it be notable that saig log was blue instead of brown? The dog sh cfs is consistently warm, bro. Ponder that while harassing AMWX members from the $hitter tomrrow-

It’s still clearly baroclinic—attached to a frontal boundary. You can see it clearly in the visible satellite. Same impacts as a TS, but just not tropical.

Jennettes pier is gusting to 65, sustained at 42!!! (MPH)

Euro has rain at 300 hours so I guess we can look forward to that

Just give me until 12:00 pm in Poolesville.

I believe Wdrag's analysis is on the mark with rainfall potential for parts of the area. The system responsible is an impressive and strengthening coastal low (non-tropical). The guidance can sometimes be too sharp with the cutoff of precipitation. It wouldn't surprise me to see Atlantic City wind up with 0.50"-1.00" to perhaps 1.50" of rain and NYC wind up with around 0.25". I do think we'll see amounts fall off sharply north and west of New York City. In terms of outcomes, Atlantic City and Georgetown have already received more rainfall than had been expected on the guidance for the 6-hour period that will end at 18z.