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  2. weatherwiz
    For sure. While I've been a huge negative on the AI side of things, I do think they are going to provide value but so long as they are used properly. Unfortunately though, we're also going backwards with a lot of the changes done within the field. The lack of weather balloon launches I think too has been extremely detrimental to forecasting, particularly short-term. Once we, if we, get to the point of quantum computing we will see substantial strides forward with modelling and forecasting.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    One thing I will say is that with somewhat less MC influence, perhaps it may be a it easier to pop a -NAO during the coming season, but still a lot working against it in the grand scheme of things....solar cycle is about as hostile as it gets with geomagnetic energy peaking a couple of years removed from solar max.
  4. WxWatcher007
    It's really interesting to see the strides made by AI guidance in recent years. We'll see if that continues into this winter. As I remember it, AI ensembles were great least year when legacy guidance was too quick to kick our coastal events out to sea.
  5. Brian5671
    Nice day out there and great to open up the house for some fresh air 76 here partly cloudy
  6. weatherwiz
    Taker told Mick he was out of his mind when Mick told him to do it. Taker refused at first but Mick was insistent
  7. WxWatcher007
    And 500mb
  8. weatherwiz
    In terms of the statement, "looking at normal temp 15 days out is more accurate" around 15 days out or so climatology is going to have more "skill" versus a forecast model. Something I learned recently but the reason why say the GFS goes out to 15 days is because that is around the period when climatology holds better skill than forecast models.
  9. Moonhowl
    Have fun at the lake hope the storms miss down your way.
  10. Moonhowl
    Wind is blowing and rain dumping in Asheville at the moment.
  11. bncho
    I wouldn’t be too down about it to be completely honest—with all our super Ninos, whether they were basin wide, east based, whatever—we always needed luck. The way I see it is what many other good posters have said on here, it’s essentially a coin flip as of right now and it’s impossible to tell which way it’ll go until winter arrives
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Forecast -NAO is def. more severe this year than 2023, but it was biased to negatively in 2023, and I suspect that is again the case. That being said, this reality is certainly not prohibitive to some intervals of blocking, I just think the model is overdoing it.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Sept 2026: Sept 2023:
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Shrivel!!!
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Problem is I don't buy it given the magnitude and orientation of El Niño along with the QBO and solar cycle...it was kind of doing the same thing in Sept. 2023. Feb 2024 ended up with a +1.09 NAO.... +.76 DJFM mean NAO, so it whiffed on that.
  16. SACRUS
    Made it to 82 but more clouds now
  17. mitchnick
    Boinnnnnng!!!
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not concerned about that at all. We'll need it the year, IMHO....will be the difference between infrastructure-paralyzing paste and wind-swept sheets of rain. That is absurd for February....like 2010, stuff.
  19. Guest

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  20. mitchnick
    Let's hope not too much of a typically good thing.
  21. Maestrobjwa
    Dang it man...just dang it. I'm not sure we in the central MD/DC part of this forum are realizing what failure this winter means for the next 2-3 years...we'd better pull a miracle or the next big snow can't happen until 29/30 at the earliest. Super nino this year...nina next two years, smh That is not dooming: It is the reality of climo. We need to break the snow drought THIS year.
  22. Met1985
    Im down at Lake Keowee but im keeping an eye on this.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not sure that I characterize much it's leaning into the -NAO as "very much canonical east based Nino". Aug: Sept:
  24. Maggie Valley Steve
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch hoisted for all of Western NC until 8 PM. We've been under the gun with constant heavy thunderstorms the past hour with frequent lightning. This is ahead of the main line moving in near the border.
  25. Dan76
    LOL I remember that.
  26. EastCoast NPZ
    Showers 3 days in a row! Thank Jesus! * .25" That makes about 1.2" the last 3 days. With the storm the week before (need to look to see what day that was) we're actually in a good stretch here.
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